1. © 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved The Telemetry Spectrum Crunch: An Economist’s Perspective ITC 2005 Las Vegas, NV Carolyn A. Kahn The MITRE Corporation ckahn@mitre.org312-828-9196 © 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved

2. 2 Outline n Introduction n Context & scope n Overview of economic model n Methodology n Preliminary results

3. © 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved 3 Introduction n The flight test community faces a telemetry spectrum crunch n Amount of spectrum now allocated for ATM is not sufficient to meet needs and requirements have been steadily growing n ATM spectrum is vital to both commercial and military flight testing n There are economic implications associated with the allocation of spectrum for ATM n Economic considerations are important to the proposal currently before the ITU –Agenda Item 1.5 of WRC 2007 calls for the allocation of additional spectrum for wideband ATM in the 3-30 GHz band ATM: Aeronautical Telemetry; MHz: Megzhertz; Kbps: Kilobits per second; ITU: International Telecommunication Union; WRC: World Radio Conference; GHz: Gigzhertz

4. © 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved 4 Context & Scope n MITRE tasked to build a model to evaluate the economic importance of having adequate accessibility to ATM spectrum n MITRE team developed robust economic analysis methodology to forecast future scenarios –Exercised conservatism in modeling costs ATM: Aeronautical Telemetry

5. © 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved 5 Overview of Economic Model Economic model incorporates: n Robust bottoms-up ATM bandwidth demand model (BDM) n Estimation of probable future scenarios on a test range over 20+ year period (2004-2024+) –Annual comparison of estimated demand and supply of ATM spectrum on a range –Calculation of resulting deficiency Gap n Estimated cost impacts of the Gap n Insight gained from the economic model substantiates the criticality of spectrum augmentation ATM: Aeronautical Telemetry; MHz: Megahertz

6. © 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved 6 ATM bandwidth demand model (BDM) n Developed time series analysis based on statistical approaches and elements of Sarnoff model n BDM consists of two types of ATM spectrum demand –Future On-Going (FOG): average day-to-day requirements to support routine flight test operations –Max User: requirements to support major new project n Incorporates efficiency gain expected from Tier 1, Tier 2, and iNet ATM: Aeronautical Telemetry; MHz: Megahertz; BDM: Bandwidth Demand Model; iNet: Integrated Network Enhanced Telemetry

7. © 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved 7 Future Scenarios n Developed scenarios to evaluate potential spectrum environment in future n Investigated 10 cases of ATM spectrum demand –BDM model uses built-in toggles to explore sensitivities of various scenarios n Range operations base: number of simultaneous operations/users n Range operations factor: allows the exploration of the effects of growth in the number of simultaneous operations n iNet usage factor: fraction of spectrum expected to be used for iNet n iNet bandwidth reduction factor: expected percentage of reduction in amount of data a vehicle needs to send as compared to current methods n Maximum user factor: multiplier to vary max user data as percent of original estimate n Tier 3 toggle: incorporates efficiency gain of a Tier 3 technology n Examined 5 cases of ATM spectrum supply –WRC augmentation of 0, 60, 200, 425, or 600 MHz n Analyzed sensitivities among the cases ATM: Aeronautical Telemetry; MHz: Megahertz; WRC: World Radio Conference; iNet: Integrated Network Enhanced Telemetry

8. © 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved 8 n Identified and estimated cost impacts of the Gap n Analyzed multiple scenarios to understand sensitivities Cost Impacts of Gap Technology Investments Test Delays Inadequate Testing Test Infrastructure Enhancements 2134 MHz: Megahertz; WRC: World Radio Conference

9. © 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved 9 n There are costs and potential benefits of investments in technology research initiatives n Estimated annual investment costs for ARTM, Tier 1 & 2 technologies, iNet, use of higher frequency bands, and other unforeseen, promising technologies n Potential benefits (e.g., improved efficiencies) of these investments are incorporated within growth rates of demand data Technology Investment 1 ARTM: Advanced Range Telemetry; iNet: Integrated Network Enhanced Telemetry; GHz: Gigahertz; $M: Millions of Dollars

10. © 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved 10 n There are costs associated with unplanned test delays due to insufficient ATM spectrum access n There are unplanned delays on a test range today –One large test delay per week costs $1M –Three small test delays per week cost $50K x 3 = $150K n Today, test delays due to insufficient ATM spectrum access cost $60M per year! Cost of Delays 2 ATM: Aeronautical Telemetry; M: Million; K: Thousand

11. © 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved 11 n Examined cost to provide new or additional range resources for flight testing in different geographic areas –Huge cost to programs and national economy n Issues remain: –Are there alternative ranges available far enough away from existing ranges to allow for spectrum reuse? –Will legal, environmental, and political consent be given to provide new range resources far enough away from existing ranges accessing ATM spectrum to allow for spectrum reuse? n In the present environment, these are not realistic options! Test Infrastructure Enhancements 3 ATM: Aeronautical Telemetry

12. © 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved 12 n Model incorporates cost of inadequate testing n Lack of access to ATM spectrum leads to test point shedding which leads to reduction in test quality n At some point, not testing results in catastrophes and fatalities n Based on specific cost of inadequate testing case n 30 lives lost!* –GAO: in part due to inadequate test & evaluation** n To meet cost and schedule targets, actual testing conducted was less then a third of that originally planned n $1.6B per incident!* Inadequate Testing 4 ATM: Aeronautical Telemetry; B: Billion; *Calculation based on Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation data in internal DoD document; **GAO, 20 February 2001, http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d01369r.pdf

13. © 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All rights reserved 13 Preliminary Results n Model does not incorporate the risk of depending on test infrastructure enhancements –Legal, environmental, political, and large upfront investment hurdles may not be overcome –In present environment, not a realistic option n WRC spectrum augmentation of 650 MHz is only scenario in which requirements are met in base case over next 20 years n Our choices today will determine how we will flight test in the future n Will we be able to efficiently develop innovative aerospace products? n Costs are significantly mitigated by: –Reducing testing delays (via spectrum augmentation and/or test infrastructure enhancements) –Decreasing inadequate testing WRC: World Radio Conference; MHz: Megahertz;