1. Are we ready for REDD? Multidimensional policies for reducing Amazon deforestation: 2001-2010 Gilberto Câmara Director, National Institute for Space Research Brazil

2. Governance + markets + technology >> REDD+ Reducing deforestation in Amazonia

3. Conflicting prospects for REDD

4. ~230 scenes Landsat/year Yearly detailed estimates of clear-cut areas PRODES: Clear-cut deforestation mapping

5. Economic recovery and deforestation: 2001-2004 Yearly deforestation rate for 2003-2004: 27,100 km2

6. Strong reaction from public opinion What is the proper scientific reaction?

7. T2 – Loss of smaller trees How does deforestation happen? T1 – Selective logging T3 – Loss >50% of forestT4 – Loss >90% of forest

8. 15-day warnings of newly deforested large areas (MODIS) DETER: Real-time Deforestation Monitoring

9. 166-112 116-113 116-112 TerraAmazon – open source software for large-scale land change monitoring Spatial database (PostgreSQL with vectors and images) 2004-2008 data: 5 million polygons, 500 GB images

10. For a while, everything went well...

11. Transparency builds governance 500.000 registrations 46 million protests

12. Then, in January 2008...

13. Transparency builds governance

14. X Credit crunch in 43 municipalities 31% of total deforestation in 2002 22% of total deforestation in 2008

15. 2008 Impact of policing and credit crunch in 2008 “Fire arch” policing operation Illegal cattle seizure Start of credit crunch source: IMAZON

17. Challenge for real-time monitoring Deforestation by size of fragment (ha) PRODES: 2002 a 2009

18. Optical land imaging satellites (5-60 m) Sentinel-2A 2011 Amazônia-1 2012 20132014 2010 2015 Landsat-8 CBERS-3 CBERS-4 ResourceSat-2 AWIFSSat ResourceSat-3 Sentinel-2B

19. Protected areas and deforestation: 1997

20. Protected areas and deforestation: 2000

21. Protected areas and deforestation: 2001

22. Protected areas and deforestation: 2002

23. Protected areas and deforestation: 2003

24. Protected areas and deforestation: 2004

25. Protected areas and deforestation: 2005

26. Protected areas and deforestation: 2006

27. Protected areas and deforestation: 2007

28. Protected areas and deforestation: 2008

29. Policing actions: illegal wood seizure 50% of operations in 10% of the area

30. Fines from policing operations source: Environment Ministry, Brazil

31. Markets have a positive rôle

32. Reducing pressure for land poaching land tenure rights to 300 mil settlers

33. Governance + markets + technology >> REDD+ Reducing deforestation in Amazonia

34. Is REDD necessary and beneficial? Money to whom? migrant workers? big farmers? How much will they get?

35. What could be the size of REDD? 10% REDD Reduction of developed countries 46,2 Gt CO2eq REDD 4,62 Gt CO2eq To maintain environmental integrity, REDD should be at most 10% of the commitments of developed countries, if they agree to reduce their emissions by 50% between 2010 and 2020

36. What could be the size of REDD in Brazil? REDD 4,62 Gt CO2eq Proposed reduction 4,9 Gt CO2eq From 2010 to 2020, the emissions cuts proposed by Brazil would be larger than the entire worldwide market for REDD

37. Will REDD create self-defeating outcomes? ‘We have a resource we would like to get money for. Either you pay us for biodiversity services or we will sell the forest to Malaysian logging companies.’ (Guyana government officer)