1. THE FUTURE OF THE JONES ACT TANK VESSEL FLEET
HENRY S. MARCUS
Research Conducted for Double-Hull Tanker Legislation:
An Assessment of the Oil Pollution Act of 1990,
Marine Board, 1997

2. Key Issues Supply of Tankers & Barges Demand Oil Pollution Act of 1990
Crude Oil
Product
Substituted Services
Oil Pollution Act of 1990
Politics/Public Policy

3. Supply Tankers: Crude Oil Tankers: Product Barges
28 Single Hull > 50K DWT (Out of 48) < 25 years
Tankers: Product
41 Single Hull < 50K DWT (Out of 67) < 25 years
Barges
1 Single Hull > 50K DWT (Out of 1) < 25 years
73 Single Hull < 50K DWT (Out of 105) < 25 years

4. Demand Crude Oil Declining Alaskan Production
Export in U.S.-Flag Ships
New Drilling?
Product
U.S. Gulf to U.S. Northeast
Seasonal
Pipelines
Imports
Lightering/Intra-port
Barges

5. Impact Of Oil Pollution Act of 1990
Construction of Double Hull Tank Vessels
Operation of Double Hull Tank Vessels
Retirement of Single Hull Tank Vessels:
For > 30,000 GRT: At age 23 In 2000
For 15 < 30,000 GRT: At age 25 in 2005
For 5 < 15,000 GRT: At age 25 in 2005

6. Impacts of OPA 90 One Extreme Other Extreme Higher Probability
All SH Tank Vessels Replaced with DH when required
Other Extreme
No SH Tank Vessels Replaced Due to Lack of Economic Demand
Higher Probability
Few Additional Crude Oil Tanker Replaced
Crunch Within 5 years
Few (9) Product Tankers Replaced
Substitutes Used
Barges Replaced as Needed

7. Public Policy Issues/Politics
If All SH Replaced, Huge Cost
If No Additional SH Replaced, Most of Industry Wiped Out (10 years early)
Possible Jones Act Waivers
Future of Jones Act
Replacement of Tankers with Barges
Reduction in Active Seafarers
Role of Domestic Trade in U.S. Merchant Marine Policy