1. Planning using Problem Analysis and The Theory of Change

2. What is Planning? It is a participative process which assists: –To analyse the existing situation and identify the causes of problems. –To ensure buy-in, informed decision making & teamwork. –To establish a logical hierarchy of means by which results will be reached. –To identify possible risks. –To establish how results (outputs and outcomes) might best be monitored.

3. Process vs Product The “Process” involves –Problem analysis –Stakeholder analysis (where necessary) –Developing a Logic Model with a hierarchy of objectives –Selecting a preferred implementation strategy. This is an interactive group exercise by a representative group The “Product” of this analytical process is the The Plan which summarizes: –What the project intends to do and how –What are the key assumptions –How outputs and outcomes will be monitored and evaluated The Process is equally as important as the Product

4. Outline of the Process Planning must be undertaken by a representative team - not only by management or technical assistant team Step 1 - Establish representative team of participants - Stakeholder Analysis Step 2 – Problem Analysis Step 3 - Analysis of Objectives Step 4 - Analysis of Alternate Strategies Step 5 - Develop The Logic Model Step 6 – Develop the plan of action with a focus on the results. Step 7 - Using the plan of action to monitor & evaluate the project

5. STAKEHOLDERS Step 1 - Establishing a Team Initial Stakeholder Analysis to assemble a representative team to undertake planning. Target Group Others Delivery Group Let’s take a closer look at each group

6. STAKEHOLDERS Target Group Others Delivery Group Other agencies who have an interest in, or a responsibility for, addressing the identified development problems Those responsible for delivering the proposed project solution Those directly affected by the problems in question and who might be beneficiaries of any proposed project solution

7. Steps 2, 3 & 4 – Problem & Objectives Analysis and Analysis of Alternate Strategies CAUSE EFFECT END MEANS Objective Tree (Positives) Problem Tree (Negatives)

8. What is Problem Analysis? Problem analysis is a tool that helps to: –determine real as opposed to apparent needs –analyse the existing situation and identify the underlying causes of problems –Identify potential constraints –ensure buy-in, informed decision making & teamwork as potential solutions are discovered –Identify the size of the problem and the likely resources needed to tackle it –Identify and analyse a number of alternative solutions

9. Analysis of the Current Situation Specify broad objective of the programme Identify constraints to achieving this objective (What are the hinderances) Sort constraints into cause and effect logic to create a Problem Tree CAUSE EFFECT The ultimate solution must address the Causes and NOT the Effects

10. Example - Constraints Objective : Lead a Healthy Lifestyle –In a collaborative workshop list all the potential constraints : –Avoid pre-empting the solution; your statements should be of the problem. No access to Fresh Produce Can’t afford Gym Laziness/ No discipline Eat unhealthy foods Too Busy/ No Time to Exercise No Time to prepare healthy meal Unfit Eat Convenience Foods Can’t afford Healthy Foods Can’t afford stove No Motivation/ Boring Overweight Old Habits/ Past failures Work Functions Unhealthy Lifestyle Only eat staple foods Mis- information on adverts

11. Example – Cause & Effect Logic Overweight Eat Convenience Foods ? ? Which is the Cause & which is the Effect

12. Example – Cause & Effect Logic Eating Convenience Foods Being Overweight CAUSE EFFECT Causes

13. No access to Fresh Produce No Time to prepare healthy meal Mis- information on adverts Laziness/ No discipline Old Habits/ Past failures Too Busy/ No Time to Exercise Eat Convenience Foods Work Functions No Motivation/ Boring Only eat staple foods Can’t afford Healthy Foods Can’t afford stove Can’t afford Gym Eat unhealthy foods Unfit Overweight Unhealthy Lifestyle Example – Problem Tree CAUSE EFFECT Objective : Lead a Healthy Lifestyle

14. Analysis of Objectives Take Problem Statements (negatives) from the Problem Tree and turn them into Objective Statements (positive desirable conditions) CAUSE EFFECT END MEANS Objective Tree (Positives) Problem Tree (Negatives)

15. Example – Objective Tree No access to Fresh Produce No Time to prepare healthy meal Mis- information on adverts Laziness/ No discipline Old Habits/ Past failures Too Busy/ No Time to Exercise Eat Convenience Foods Work Functions No Motivation/ Boring Only eat staple foods Can’t afford Healthy Foods Can’t afford stove Can’t afford Gym Eat unhealthy foods Unfit Overweight Unhealthy Lifestyle CAUSE EFFECT Healthy Lifestyle Eat Correctly Regular Exercise Weight loss Affordable exercise routine established Record of daily food intake Healthy eating plan established Vegetable garden established Develop a Positive Attitude Eat less at work functions Stop Buying Fast Foods & Save Money Effective Time Planning Deal with Past Failures Get Disciplined Nutritional Education Learn how to make a quick healthy meal Learn how to grow vegetables END MEANS Develop key disciplines Deal with Past Failures Plan time effectively Obtain nutritional Education Learn how to make a quick healthy meal Learn how to grow vegetables

16. Theory of Change: ( Evidence Based Analysis of Alternatives) Should all the identified activities be tackled? What combination of interventions is most likely to bring about the desired results and promote sustainable benefits? Ask the question: What evidence do you have about the causal relationships? How strong and reliable is it? This is where you feed in evidence gained through M&E & research. Which strategy will best support institutional strengthening objectives? Various alternate strategies are analyzed and mapped Alternatives are then re-workshopped, showing the pros & cons and a final strategy is selected

17. Example – Alternatives Analysis Healthy Lifestyle Eat Correctly Regular Exercise Weight loss Affordable exercise routine established Record of daily food intake Healthy eating plan established Vegetable garden established Develop a Positive Attitude Eat less at work functions Stop Buying Fast Foods & Save Money Effective Time Planning Deal with Past Failures Get Disciplined Nutritional Education Learn how to make a quick healthy meal Learn how to grow vegetables Develop key disciplines Deal with Past Failures Plan time effectively Obtain nutritional Education Learn how to make a quick healthy meal Learn how to grow vegetables OUTIN

18. Step 5 – Develop Logic Model The final Objective Tree is used to start framing the objectives hierarchy in the Logic Model. Objective Tree Outcome Outputs Activities END MEANS Logic Model

19. Useful approach to break down work from Outputs to Activities Outcome Output Sub- Output Activity Sub- Output Activity It may be useful to break down the Outputs to Sub- outputs before identifying activities