1. Introduction to the EPATS and CESAR -- EPATS Synergy by Maciej Mączka Source: Alfred Baron, Krzysztof Piwek, Small aircraft requirements & potential demand, methodology & assumption, synergy need, INSTITUTE OF AVIATION, Warsaw, 2007 Amsterdam, September 2007

2. POSSIBLE SYNERGY AREA FUTURE AIRCRAFT REQUIREMENTS AIRCRAFT DESIGNING SYSTEM ENHANCMENT EUROPEAN SMALL AIRCRAFT TRANSPORT DEMAND ANALYSIS

3. WHAT IS EPATS? Personal air transport system driven by personal needs, preference and resources of the population improving current transport infrastructure with economic efficiency and ecological sustainability in 20 years time horizon

4. EPATS fundamentals C.a. 2500 landing facilities in Europe Uneven existing infrastructure quality (accessibility) Single European Sky (SESAR research) New techs Small carrier and private owner friendly environment

5. EPATS fundamentals Dense network of airports especially located in remote regions enables filling the communication gap in interregional domestic and European transport c.a. 95% of European population lives in a distace of 40km of the nearest GA ariport Only 5% of European population lives in a distace of 40km of the nearest HUB

6. EPATS components Network of airports Air Traffic Management Air carriers organizations Maintenance, and management companies Aircraft owners and users associations Other stakeholders Piston, turboprop, jet, 4-19- seat a/c

7. EPATS-SATS difference Reduction: ineqaulity of chances, EU regions remoteness, door-to-door travel time Increase: accessibility to hi- speed modes for remote European regions Vehicle: 4-19-seat piston turboprop and jet aircraft (operating at small regional and local airports) Operating: low flow interregional on-demand and scheduled services Reduction: door-to-door travel time Increase: daily range of activity from large agglomerations Vehicle: 4-7-seat, piston and jet aircraft (operating at small and large airports) Operating: private or corporate transport system on- demand service

8. Method and Requirements Potential demand method estimation structure: -Current mobility demand -Indifference curve for modal choice (car – a/c) -Modal split estimation -Current number and type of a/c required A/c mission requirements parameters: -via customer choice index formula Outside constraints (ATM, environmnt, etc.) FP7 recommendations

9. EPATS forecast A question to be answered at the end of the project: How many and what type of aircraft are needed to realize EPATS concept ? What recommendations can we provide to the FP7 Programme?

10. Demand forecast assumptions Socio-economic data for EU-27, infrastructure data, trip data (Passenger flow estimation is based on ESPON, EUNET, DATELINE, SCENES, EUROSTAT data - using a gravity method) Modal split based on minimization of cost by using the generalized cost formula: (generalized cost = manufacturer price + tax or subsidy + value of time + accommodation cost) modal split between car and aircraft in passenger-kilometers An estimate of number and type of EPATS a/c 1 Pass.-km costs level source: -corporate car costs data, -train transport ticket prices, -air carriers = global costs / volume of transport costs in respective countries = country specifics or averaged EU values considering other events and research influencing costs (e.g. CESAR)

11. Indifference curve Citation jet Eclipse King Air Cirrus Effect of accomodation costs VoT:100Eur/h, distnace: 400km, mode choice: Cirrus SR-22, King Air or Eclipse 500 VoT: 7 Eur/h, distnace: 300km, mode choice: car VoT:100Eur/h, distnace: 1000km, mode choice: Cirrus SR-22, King Air, Eclipse 500 or Cessna Citation car area of aircraft choice

12. Example of possible prognosis for 2020 Estimated EPATS transport share: c.a. 2% (120bn pkm) of current volume of car travel Result could reach: 120 000 aircraft (62%) 75 000 piston (20%) 25 000 turboprop (18%) 20 000 jet Assuming average 1 000 000 pkm per a/c per year

13. Mission requirements parameters number of passenger seats aircraft speed aircraft range take-off and landing characteristics comfort level flight conditions DOC, SFC, Life cycle, maintenance, price, operational costs

14. Technical Specification crew configuration weight size propulsion system performance control equipment avionics modular construction etc. ACP-1 Single-Engine Piston ACP-2 Twin-Engine Piston ACT-1 Single-Engine Turboprop ACT-2 Twin-Engine Turboprop ACJ-1 Twin-Engine Very Light Jet ACJ-2 Twin-Engine Light Jet

15. ATM issues Airspace structure Flow regulations Safety Flexible use of airspace Controlled or not controlled Mix with regulated airlines traffic

16. Conclusions Small aircraft transport system in Europe is a chance to improve transport infrastructure (accessibility) at relatively low costs GA revitalization in EU-27 needs cooperation and support from ACARE, SESAR, FP7 funding EPATS – CESAR synergy is needed

17. EPATS offer CESAR - EPATS Synergy Proposals Joint CESAR/EPATS small aircraft requirements (Input for future SRA) Research Programmes Proposal to EU Framework Programme Cooperation within European Personal Air Transport Platforms - including ESPON(European Spatial Planning and Observatory Network), VIP (Very Light Jet Integration Platform), EGAMA, etc.