1. ZAMBIA PRACTICES IN MANUFACTURING STATISTICS Republic of Zambia Central Statistical Office Manufacturing Statistics workshop 4 th to 7 th May 2009 Nkandu Kabibwa

2. Presentation Outline Overview of Zambia Organisational structure of the CSO Current Manufacturing statistics compiled and produced by CSO ( Focus on IIP) Methodology of collecting and compiling of the IIP Data Sources for IIP Periodicity of the IIP Main users of IIP Zambia Shortcomings in the compilation of manufacturing statistics (IIP) Other Data Sources for Manufacturing Statistics Way forward

3. Zambia - Geography

4. Zambia - Demographics Surrounded by 8 other countries Total area: 752, 000 km 2 Populated by 12.5 million people Copper remains the main export (70 %) Per capita GDP: US$1,181.53 (2008 prelim.) Economic growth rate: 6.0 % (2008 prelim.) and averaged around 5.8% in the past 5 years Inflation rate: 14.3 % (April 2009)

5. Organizational Structure of the CSO The Central Statistical Office is one of the TEN Departments under the Ministry of Finance and National Planning (MoFNP) Mandated under the Census and Statistics Act of the Laws of Zambia to produce official statistics The CSO consists of the Head Office in Lusaka and provincial offices in each of the nine provinces of Zambia The CSO is divided into 4 subject matter divisions namely; Agriculture & Environment Statistics Economic & finance Statistic IT & dissemination Population and demography Each Division is headed by a deputy Director

6. Economic Statistics Division DEPUTY DIRECTOR NATIONAL ACCOUNTS EXTERNAL TRADE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION PRICES & CONSUMPTION STUDIES PUBLIC FINANCE LIVING CONDITIONS The industrial statistics branch is mandated to collect and compile manufacturing statistics

7. Current Manufacturing statistics compiled and produced by CSO (a focus on IIP) The quarterly Index of Industrial Production (IIP) This is a quarterly volume index which covers » manufacturing, » mining and quarrying, and » electricity. The base for this index is the year 2000 Data on products is collected by industry (at 4 digit ISIC level)

8. Methodology of collecting and compiling of the IIP The IIP is computed using a base weighted Laspeyres Index. The weights for the IIP were derived using turnover(value of sales) ration attributable to each industry. Currently the manufacturing industry has the biggest weight in the IIP (51.1%) followed by Mining & quarrying (35%) and electricity (13.9%) Out of a population of about 1041 units(Establishments) stratified by ISIC revision 2, a sample of about 168 units was selected This sample contributed about 80 % of the total turnover in the manufacturing industry Big establishment (ie with turnover above 2 Billion ZMK) were covered on a 100% basis The sample selected mainly covered 4 of the 9 provinces in Zambia.

9. Instrument Primary Sources (only market producers are covered) Data obtained directly from a sample of establishments in 4 provinces using a simple questionnaire. This is a one paged form which is designed to collect data on: Number of operatives Compensation of operatives Quantities of manufactured products Value of manufactured products Value of sales Units of products Expected production in the next quarter Maximum capacity of production per quarter Data Sources for IIP

10. Periodicity of the IIP Computed Quarterly It is compiled within 90 days of the end of the quarter Disseminated at 2 digit ISIC revision 2 Level, mainly through the Monthly Bulletin of Statistics

11. Main users of IIP Zambia National Account The IIP for the manufacturing sector feeds directly into the compilation of the GDP Currently manufacturing contributes about 10% of the total GDP at market prices. MOFNp Used by the Ministry of Finance and National Planning to monitor changes, on a short term basis, in the manufacturing sector

12. Remote benchmark year for the IIP (2000) Establishments often change their line of production Only the market producers are covered Shortcomings in the compilation of manufacturing statistics (IIP)

13. Other Data Sources for Manufacturing Statistics Secondary Sources Living condition Monitoring Survey(LCMS) for household based manufacturing (LCMS is conducted every 2 years) Turnover from the VAT register Register of establishment (Labour statistics Branch)

14. The CSO has resolved to start conducting an Economic Census every 5 years  This will ensure that the IIP is rebased every 5years  Detailed surveys like the Census of Industrial production will be conducted within the framework of the economic census.  Will be classified using the ISIC revision 4 classification  The EC will form a basis to start computing other variables like the producer price index (PPI) Way Forward

15. Beginning last year CSO has started conducting an annual Economic Survey (AES)  This survey has been designed for calculating annual GDP for all the sector including manufacturing sector.  Feeds directly into the compilation of GDP  The inaugural AES is being analyzed and will be disseminated later this year Way Forward Continued

16. The End