1. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences N, P and K for 2014: $300 Rent, $4 Corn and USEPA John Grove and Edwin Ritchey Plant and Soil Sciences

2. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences Supply – Nitrogen; adequate, plentiful natural gas, more capacity being built (net export?) – Phosphate; adequate, industry consolidation (Mosaic, South America, supply control) – Potash; always adequate, but Russian cartel broken (for now), Urakali versus Belaruskali (lost mines, CEO-house arrest), 75 start- ups “on hold”, including BHP’s $14 billion Jansen/Canada mine, Belaruskali just announced $300/ton fob 2014 Nutrient Management Context Various industry sources; Wall Street J.

3. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences Demand – Driven by nutrient removal – Driven by price? 2014 Nutrient Management Context

4. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences Grain Crop Nutrient Removal Crop Yield unitNP2O5P2O5 K2OK2O ---lbs nutrient removed/yield unit--- Corn (grain)bushel0.70.40.35 Corn (stalks)ton14.07.029.0 Wheat (grain)bushel1.20.50.3 Wheat (straw)ton12.04.020.0 Soybean (grain)bushel3.00.71.1 Murdock and Ritchey, 2013, AGR-1

5. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences Demand – Driven by nutrient removal – Driven by price? Nutrient removal – A tale of two years 2014 Nutrient Management Context

6. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences Nutrient Removal – Corn – 2012 Initial STP = 50, STK = 250 AGR-1 recommends 30 lb P 2 O 5 & 30 lb K 2 0 2012 Ky corn yield - 68 bu/A Removal: 48, 27, and 24 lb N, P 2 O 5, K 2 O/A Soil test again or assume a 1 lb/A change in soil test with each 5 lb addition- removal/A – End of 2012: estimated STP = 51, STK=251 AGR-1 recommends 30 lb P 2 O 5 & 30 lb K 2 0 for 2013 Ritchey, 2013

7. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences Nutrient Removal – Corn – 2013 Initial STP = 50, STK = 250 AGR-1 recommends 30 lb P 2 O 5 & 30 lb K 2 0 2013 Ky corn yield - 173 bu/A Removal: 121, 69, and 61 lb N, P 2 O 5, K 2 O/A Soil test again or assume a 1 lb/A change in soil test with each 5 lb addition- removal/A – End of 2013: estimated STP = 42, STK=244 AGR-1 recommends 40 lb P 2 O 5 & 30 lb K 2 0 for 2014 Ritchey, 2013

8. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences Nutrient Removal – Irrigated Corn Initial STP = 50, STK = 250 AGR-1 recommends 30 lb P 2 O 5 & 30 lb K 2 0 Irrigated corn yield - 250 bu/A Removal: 175, 100, and 88 lb N, P 2 O 5, K 2 O/A Soil test again or assume a 1 lb/A change in soil test with each 5 lb addition- removal/A – End of year: estimated STP = 36, STK=238 AGR-1 recommends 60 lb P 2 O 5 & 40 lb K 2 0 for next year Ritchey, 2013

9. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences Soil Sample to Verify!? Year 1 = 1990 Year 23 = 2012 Sikora, 2013

10. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences 9971 samples averaging 69 lb STP/A Sikora, 2013

11. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences 9971 samples averaging 256 lb STK/A Sikora, 2013

12. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences The lb P 2 O 5 /A required to change soil test P by 1 lb/A – as related to the initial soil test P level – after an 8 week lab incubation. Thom and Dollarhide, 1987

13. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences Price – should be influenced by supply, demand and fertilizer/crop price ratio 2014 Nutrient Management Context

14. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences

15. DTN, 2013

16. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences DTN, 2013 Buying has been off. Waiting for further price Decline.

17. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences Price – should be influenced by supply, demand and fertilizer/crop price ratio, but the industry knows you had high removal. Nitrogen – the N industry monitors corn prices and pricing; seek to set price of N/lb at about 1/10 the price of corn/bu – delivery timing and storage capacity can influence N pricing, especially anhydrous Near future: expect a bit more supply driven pricing, especially N and P (K ??) 2014 Nutrient Management Context

18. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences Nutrient Budget Consequences 2012-13 Sharpen Your Pencil Corn for Grainunit201220132014 Nutrientlb/A------------$/lb------------ N1750.540.550.42 P2O5P2O5 690.660.620.50 K2OK2O710.570.530.41 Total ($/acre)180176137 Budget Yield Actual Yield bu/A 190 68 190 173 190 ??? Purdue Coop. Extn. 2012-13

19. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences Follow recommendations – For N: AGR-1 gives a range in recommended rates for the situation. Move to the high end of the range when the fertilizer N/grain price ratio is favorable (low). – For lime, P and K: soil test based approach is best – For S and the micronutrients (Zn, B, Mn): know your likely need. Verify with soil test and plant tissue analysis. 2014 Nutrient Recommendations

20. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences Adjust Corn N Rate According To The Economic Season? Murdock and Ritchey, 2013, AGR-1

21. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences The “Right” Recommendation – Competing philosophies of recommendation: – SLAN, Maintenance, Soil Nutrient Balance UK: Sufficient Level of Available Nutrients (SLAN) – Crop response based/fertilize for the crop; – Buildup (at low test levels); – Maintenance (at medium-high test levels); – None (at high-very high test levels). Recommendation Philosophies

22. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences Murdock, 1992, AGR-151 Wrong Recommendation = Real Loss Real Money = Get a Second Opinion?

23. Future Nutrient Challenges? A Hydrologic ‘Short-Circuit’?

24. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences USGS A Different “Yield” 1 kg P/km 2 /yr = 0.009 lb P/acre/yr 10 kg P/km 2 /yr = 0.09 lb P/acre/yr 100 kg P/km 2 /yr = 0.9 lb P/acre/yr Is your soil test program ready?

25. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences 01 Soil Test P (lbs/acre) 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 Yield (% of maximum) 60305 Soil Test P (lb/acre) Low Med High V.low Agronomic Threshold/Critical Value Sikora, pers. comm. This UK Knows - Well

26. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences 40 Soil Test P (lbs/acre) Environmental Threshold ??? 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 Yield (% of maximum) Limited Risk of P runoff Risk of P runoff This UK Does Not Know Well Sikora, pers. comm.

27. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences Predicting Water Soluble P from Mehlich III P on Twenty Kentucky Soils D’Angelo, pers. comm.

28. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences Water Quality and PUE = Win-Win Greater phosphorus use efficiency (PUE) improves water quality Strategies: – P placement/banding below the soil surface Additives: ??? The future: – Tie up/fix available fertilizer and manure P at the soil surface – gypsum and iron wastes – Move available P, chemically, a bit deeper into the soil, perhaps just 1 inch below the surface

29. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences Water Quality and NUE: Guarding Against N Losses: Volatilization of Ammonia (NH 3 ) Leaching of Nitrate (NO 3 - ) Denitrification into N 2 and N 2 O Immobilization into Organic N John Sawyer, Iowa State University

30. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences IPNI, Fairchild Water Quality and NUE: Guarding Against N Losses: Fairchild, IPNI Delayed/Split N Timing – reduce the probability of denitrification and leaching

31. Reducing N Immobilization and NH 3 volatilization: N Placement Below The Surface Water Quality and NUE: Guarding Against N Losses:

32. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences Maintaining Sufficient Nitrogen Increasing the N rate – “insurance” N may not be an option. Have you evaluated the alternatives? Don’t have to use steel & time. Reduce the probability of denitrification and leaching with a nitrification inhibitor – nitrapyrin/N-Serve/Instinct, DCD, Super U) Reduce volatilization with an inhibitor – NBPT/Agrotain, other NBPT formulations (jar test?) New inhibitors? Not in short-term. But further out there is more to look for.

33.  N and P management options may change.  Can you reduce your N or P application rate by 5, 15 or 25%?  Sometimes an ‘on-farm’ test is needed.  Your N (P) rate  Your N (P) rate + product/practice X  Your N (P) rate + extra N (P); $ N(P) =cost of X  Your N (P) rate – the N (P) it takes to pay for X; total $= cost of your old N (P) rate alone  Peace of mind comes at a price. Take-Home Messages

34. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences Questions? Thank You!

35. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences 1752 samples averaging 101 lb STP/A Sikora, 2013

36. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences 1752 samples averaging 301 lb STP/A Sikora, 2013

37. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences 1488 samples averaging 70 lb STP/A Sikora, 2013

38. Department of Plant and Soil Sciences 1488 samples averaging 315 lb STK/A Sikora, 2013

39. Schwab & Murdock 75 lb N/A, except control

40. Norman, Univ. of Arkansas

41. NGrain NRateYield Sourcelb N/Abu/A control0116d UAN80189c UAN + Instinct80204bc UAN120218b UAN + Instinct120241a Corn Grain Yields - 2009