1. Warm-up 5.1 Introduction to Probability 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 6) 7)

2. Student of the day! Block 1

3. Student of the day! Block 2

4. Ch. 5 Vocabulary 1)event 2)complement 3)probability distribution 4)sample spaces 5)disjoint 6)mutually exclusive 7)Law of Large Numbers 8)Fundamental Principle of Counting 9)probability model 10)Property of Disjoint Events 11) Addition Rule of Disjoint Events 12) Addition Rule 13) Conditional Probability 14) Multiplication Rule 15) dependent events 16) independent events 17) Multiplication Rule for independent events

5. Important Dates on Sharepoint Monday 12/3 5.1 to 5.3 Quiz Friday 12/7 and Tuesday 12/11 Ch. 5 Notebook Check Thursday 12/13 Ch. 5 Test (2 days before Winter Break) -----++++---- Winter Break -----+++++---- After winter break: Probability Activity Multiple Choice Practice with Ch. 5 Probability Spend at least 3 days reviewing for the midterm

6. 5.1 Introduction to Probability

8. Probability Distribution Suppose we want to list the sample space of the result of flipping two coins. If we include the probabilities it is considered a probability distribution. The complement of any event is 1 – P(event). What is the probability of not getting TT or what P( TT c )?

9. Multiplication Counting Principle The two spinners are mutually exclusive (independent events). Multiplication (Counting) Principle states that by multiplying the possible outcomes in each category, we can find the total number of possible arrangements.

10. Law of Large Numbers Let’s say you suspect your friend has unfair die. How would you actually find out if the die is weighted unequally?

11. Conducting a Probability Simulation The Steps in a Simulation That Uses Random Digits 1.Assumptions. State the assumptions you are making about how the real-life situation works. Include any doubts you might have about the validity of your assumptions. 2. Model. Describe how you will use random digits to conduct one run of a simulation of the situation. Make a table that shows how you will assign a digit (or a group of digits) to represent each possible outcome. (You can disregard some digits.) Explain how you will use the digits to model the real- life situation. Tell what constitutes a single run and what summary statistic you will record. 3. Repetition. Run the simulation a large number of times, recording the results in a frequency table. You can stop when the distribution doesn’t change to any significant degree when new results are included. 4. Conclusion. Write a conclusion in the context of the situation. Be sure to say that you have an estimated probability

12. Westvaco Example pg 302 The ages of the ten hourly workers involved in Round 2 of the layoffs were 25, 33, 35, 38, 48, 55, 55, 55, 56, and 64. The ages of the three workers who were laid off were 55, 55, and 64, with average age 58. Use simulation with random digits to estimate the probability that three workers selected at random for layoff would have an average age of 58 or more. Assumptions

13. Westvaco Simulation Continued… Model:

14. Repetition with Random Number Generator Work with a partner. Use the random number generator to select 3 workers, find their average age write it down. Complete this simulation 5 times. Record your results on the classroom dotplot.

15. Using a Random # Table

16. Homework 5.1 P#8, 9, E#4, 8 and 9 Read 5.2 and 5.3