1. Turbulence Challenges and Potential Solutions

2. Turbulence Basics Drivers – Safety, Efficiency/Emissions, Capacity, & Customer Experience Primary users- Meteorologists, Dispatchers, Crews, & Controllers Solution Components – Forecast – Tactical/Now cast – Reporting Challenges – FAA, Industry, & Resources

3. Flight Attendant Issues from an Industry Meeting Insufficient/ incomplete briefing from the flight crew on weather en route e.g. turbulence Inability to communicate effectively with flight deck about turbulence in the cabin Obligation to continue with service or compliance duties when the seatbelt sign is illuminated 300 lb. beverage cart that is a potential hazard Passengers disregard instructions and move about the cabin 3

4. Variables & Resources Forecast – Model Selection – Subjectivity / Risk Considerations Dispatcher / Pilots – Tool selection – Subjectivity / Risk Considerations – Workload drivers – Pilots’ Chat Room

5. History Wright Brothers PIREPS Chat Room Gore Commission (1998) – Safety NASA FAA/NCAR Too Much Conservatism is ultimately ignored – Cry Wolf Dispatch trial – Product vs. Workload

6. What we are doing? Replacing the Wright Brothers’ PIREPS Using an objective sensor based turbulence metric called EDR (Eddy Dissipation Rate) – Atmospheric State Using the numeric metric in a sophisticated forecast model (GTG) running on a super computer Providing access to a web site with the reports superimposed on the forecast

7. Why are we doing it? Safety IF EVERYONE IS STRAPPED IN WITH CARTS STOWED, NO ONE GETS HURT. KEY IS NOT TO CRY WOLF & F/A IGNORE WARNINGS Efficiency/Emissions Capacity = Delays Better customer experience Overall - The solutions for all 4 drivers might appear to conflict, but BETTER WEATHER KNOWLEDGE CAN DRIVE BETTER SOLUTIONS FOR ALL 4.

8. Components of Viewer 3 Dimensional Forecast Model – Robust – Weighted average of other models – Updated hourly – Feedback loop Objective aircraft reports - Validate model – Sensor based reports – Normalized for all aircraft – Sea state Live web site using WiFi with user tools

9. FAA Delta Demo Tablet using WiFi for Turbulence Viewer 40+ Line Check Airmen One year duration Goals – Change behavior with better information – Measure benefits – Define next steps

10. Turbulence Viewer

11. Profile View

12. Report Generator

13. Preliminary Results Very Positive - Want it now What have you done for me today? – Auto generated flight Path – 3D Visualization Future Steps – Cabin vs. cockpit access to weather – Turbulence building block – Weather integration/simplification

14. Future Path Industry Distractions – Airline daily priority – Mergers, Fuel, Economy – FAA – Research vs. Implementation Political Will – FAA – NextGen Weather – Airlines – Validate Benefits Alternatives for Data Location & Products – Airline, Government, Commercial or Mix – Costs burden – More data is key, but airline differences inhibit Decision Time – Demo could be the trigger