1. Making Progress in Uncertain Times Milan Brahmbhatt Lead Economist. East Asia & Pacific Region, World Bank Presentation to The Executive Forum’s East Asian Economic Forecast Singapore. March 14, 2003.

2. 2 The global backdrop: OECD countries expected to continue a modest recovery

3. 3 Though 2003 projections are dropping as uncertainty surges …

4. 4 Against a backdrop of severe geopolitical stress - Iraq, N.Korea, terrorism

5. 5 World trade momentum lost steam, while private flows to ldcs stayed weak in ‘02

6. 6 Yet a robust E.Asian recovery in 2002, despite the global weakness…

7. 7 Among several reasons - a fall in external vulnerability after the financial crisis…

8. 8 …shields the region from turbulence in emerging capital markets

9. 9 Easier monetary policy and post-crisis bank reforms boost consumer credit and spending

10. 10 In places, supportive fiscal policies – though keeping an eye on debt is important

11. 11 East Asian Exports Hitched to the China Locomotive in 2002

12. 12 Share of East Asian exports going to China rising over the last two decades

13. 13 China’s imports shifting towards ‘high tech’ – especially components for assembly

14. 14 SE Asian countries find high tech ‘niches’ in China’s import market …

15. 15 … while China also gains its own niches in high tech components exports

16. 16 But FDI ex-China has weakened during this period of industrial restructuring...

17. 17 5 years after the crisis, fixed investment remains erratic, corporate debt high

18. 18 Making progress in uncertain times: stick to fundamentals After Bali: public security and rule of law In this risk-averse and volatile global environment: prudent macro management pays dividends More resources for key public goods: strengthen governance and public accountability Focus on entrepreneurial climate: move ahead with core private sector development issues (including rural!), corporate & financial restructuring and reform Regional co-operation

19. 19 Annex: International Economic Environment

20. 20 Annex: East Asia & Pacific Growth Forecast