1. Copyright Robust Decisions Inc. 2003 Decision Management in Product Development Dr. David Ullman President Robust Decisions, Inc. www.robustdecisions.com

2. Copyright Robust Decisions Inc. 2003 “Concern for decision support is in its pre- infancy and that the commercial world is just beginning to realize the importance of decision support in business and product development” Wayne Collier, analyst for D.H. Brown and Associates

3. Copyright Robust Decisions Inc. 2003 What do these processes have in common? Acquisition planning Portfolio management Product development Proposal evaluation Strategic planning Homeland security Bad actor identification Target identification Courses of Action (COA) decisions Analysis of Alternatives Business strategy development

4. Copyright Robust Decisions Inc. 2003 They all require choosing a course of action and committing resources based Incomplete Uncertain Evolving from stakeholders or agents who: Know part of the information Are distributed in time and location Represent many different viewpoints, areas of expertise, and organizational functions on information that is:

5. Copyright Robust Decisions Inc. 2003 The Value of Information DECISION Judgment KNOWLEDGE Behavior MODELS Relationships DATA Increasing value

6. Copyright Robust Decisions Inc. 2003 Historical View Product Product development and business processes are the evolution of information punctuated by decisions. 1970s 1980-90s2000s Process Decision

7. Copyright Robust Decisions Inc. 2003 The goal is to make decisions with: Confidence Stakeholder buy-in Measured expectations Risk awareness Efficient processes Reports, documentation, and reuse

8. Copyright Robust Decisions Inc. 2003 Decision management is a process that ensures stakeholders’ perspectives and their uncertain knowledge and information are effectively used in determining what to do next to make the best possible decisions with measured satisfaction and risk Meeting this goal requires decision management

9. Copyright Robust Decisions Inc. 2003 Projects are late or over budget “Final” decisions are later revisited Poor stakeholder buy-in Decisions made by edict or the most forceful Expertise is underutilized Low confidence in decisions Decisions are not justified, recorded, reused Symptoms of poor decision management

10. Copyright Robust Decisions Inc. 2003 Many decision support systems (dss) really only evaluate QFD, other requirements development, and concept generation tools

11. Copyright Robust Decisions Inc. 2003 Accord TM – single window application that supports Decision Management Incorporates Uncertain Info. Incomplete Info. Evolving Info. Distributed teams Info. fusion Stakeholder viewpoints Graphical interface Useful results Satisfaction Risk What to do next

12. Copyright Robust Decisions Inc. 2003 Underlying model Utility Theory augmented by Bayesian Model Manages uncertain information from multiple stakeholders Fuses distributed team information: Satisfaction from multiple viewpoints The value of information (risk and what to do next) Patented algorithms Easily imbedded in existing information management systems

13. Copyright Robust Decisions Inc. 2003 W1 W2 W3 K C K C Sum Belief Weighted Values Individual Satisfaction Criterion 1Criterion 2 Best Estimate, Pessimistic, and Optimistic Criterion 3

14. Copyright Robust Decisions Inc. 2003 Belief Map for qualitative evaluation 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 0.50.60.70.80.91 Knowledge or certainty Criterion Satisfaction Belief.6.7.8.9.5.4.3.2.1.5

15. Copyright Robust Decisions Inc. 2003 Expand/ Contract Scale Delighted Most Likely Lower Limit Upper Limit Disgusted For qualitative evaluation

16. Copyright Robust Decisions Inc. 2003 Results (partial display) Satisfaction (expectation)for each alternative from various viewpoints Downside risk displayed as a potential reduction in expectation

17. Copyright Robust Decisions Inc. 2003 Case study, HP InkJet BACKGROUND An interdepartmental team, developing the next generation color inkjet printer cartridge GOAL Produce the best quality print and graphics, quickly and inexpensively TASKS Design the ink delivery system Select the inks Revisit the process as the delivery system matures

18. Copyright Robust Decisions Inc. 2003 Case study, HP InkJet (cont.) CHALLENGES 15 people on the team, a variety of departments The best ink must be selected early in the process- a poor decision might result in additional project cycles, or in unacceptable product performance System design requires optimization of numerous interacting and evolving properties of the ink and delivery components The nature, meaning, and relative importance of these interactions is not well understood or represented

19. Copyright Robust Decisions Inc. 2003 Case study, HP InkJet (cont.) PREVIOUS DECISION MAKING METHOD A series of meetings among the different representative groups Sometimes are unstructured, and sometimes not NEW APPROACH Robust Decisions’ training and companion software, Accord, were introduced to the group Training is based on the book “12 Steps to Robust Decisions” Accord is uniquely suited to teams managing uncertain, incomplete, and conflicting information

20. Copyright Robust Decisions Inc. 2003 Case study, HP InkJet (cont.) RESULTS Potential elimination of an ink testing iteration later in the project. Time savings: as much as five months An estimated 30-50% increase in decision confidence TEAMS ALSO REPORTED Increased participant accountability, and process buy-in Awareness of important issues and areas of disagreement Consensus, with more certainty and rapidity Decisions based on shared knowledge, rather than decisions made by a few experts Better team visualization of individual and group thought processes Improved alternative and criteria development

21. Copyright Robust Decisions Inc. 2003 Customer results Decreased time to market through lower risk of design cycle repetition Increased probability of market success through: Increased decision confidence Managed risk and uncertainty Identified areas for risk mitigation Facilitated team consensus Increased team accountability Captured decisions for reuse Large organizations behaving like small teams

22. Copyright Robust Decisions Inc. 2003 Dr. David Ullman President Robust Decisions, Inc. Corvallis Oregon 541.758.5088 www.robustdecisions.com ullman@robustdecisions.com Contact A free license is available to educational institutions in trade for use feedback.