1. The Implications of Uncertain Land Tenure on Investment Success: Incorporating Local Land Tenure into Investment Decisions Stephanie Fenner, Cynthia Caron, Daniel Monchuk Department of International Development, Community, and Environment Clark University, USA sfenner@clarku.edu

2. Executive Summary Explore investment performance surrounding FDI in land in Sub-Saharan Africa. Examine the impacts of land tenure risk on investment outcomes. Case study analysis suggests respecting and considering local land rights minimizes risk for investors, governments, and local communities.

3. Key Questions 1) What are the most important tenure-related factors to take into account when assessing the financial risk of a large-scale land investment? 2) What are the consequences companies face when they fail to take land tenure factors into account? 3) What are the key land governance relationships in the context of responsible land-based investments?

4. Conceptual Framework Framework views land investments through the lens of investment under uncertainty Sources of tenure-related risk Political risk in host country Legal pluralism and overlapping claims to land Local community opposition

5. Case Studies Bedford Biofuels, Kenya BioShape Ltd., Tanzania SunBiofuels, Tanzania Daewoo, Madagascar Herakles Farms, Cameroon ProCana Sugar, Mozambique Socfin Agricultural Company, Sierra Leone Vegpro, Ghana

6. Discussion and Analysis Political risk in host country Contracts or agreements not properly enforced; acquisition of necessary permits, certifications, and other legal documents challenging Legal pluralism and overlapping claims to land Created situations of land tenure insecurity and increased risk Local community opposition Companies rarely operated transparently or proactively engaged affected communities

7. Conclusions Uncertain land tenure was a significant source of risk. Transparency and early consultation may help avoid risks related to community opposition. The Vegpro with ACDI/VOCA partnership illustrates how a company can help mitigate risk