1. Summit 1

2. Scenario Driver How does the healthcare community determine, measure and assure the public concerning physician competence over the career of the physician?

3. Scenarios to Explore Possible Futures Inspired by Solving Tough Problems -by Adam Kahane

4. Steps List significant events over the last 100 years Generate key factors/driving forces over the next 15 years Select two uncertain/critical factors Create a matrix of high/low Describe scenarios to explore possible futures and implications

5. Key Factors Globalization Rapid change in technology Aging population Greater role of government... CriticalUncertain

6. Key Factors

7. Steps List significant events over the last 100 years Generate key factors/driving forces over the next 15 years Select two uncertain/critical factors Create a matrix of high/low Describe scenarios to explore possible futures and implications

8. Patient Expectation Governmental Intervention Low High Low La Stress Boutique MyClinic.com VA Central Free Market Rules

9. Steps List significant events over the last 100 years Generate key factors/driving forces over the next 15 years Select two uncertain/critical factors Create a matrix of high/low Describe scenarios to explore possible futures and implications

10. Scenarios Techno Community Data Cacaphony Federal Tarbaby Brave New World Happy healthcare.com

11. Questions Implications for your organization? Implications for patient care? Your strategic/tactical responses? Your actions to improve patient care?