1. Prof. Dr. Peter M. Wiedemann Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, ITAS Shenzhen, BGI, 1 st Sigenet Workshop Communicating Uncertain Risks: Models and Methods

2. “…. facts are like cows. If you look them in the face hard enough they generally run away.” Dorothy L. Sayers

3. Overview  Uncertain Risk  Risk Communication  Hurdles and Barriers  Models and Methods  Epilogue

4. Overview  Uncertain Risk  Risk Communication  Hurdles and Barriers  Models and Methods  Epilogue

5. Risk

6. Risk is Everywhere The risk concept could be applied to everything.” M. Power The Risk Management of Everything. Rethinking the politics of uncertainty. London: Demos 2004

7. Risk is Everywhere  Living close to a power station  Working in a chemical plant  Skiing  Buying shares  Sun bathing  Playing golf  Being (un)married

8. Components of the Risk Concept  Effect: Cause-effect relationship  Loss: Negative relevance of the effect  Uncertainty: Probability of the loss  Level of evidence: Knowledge about these components

9. Uncertain Risks  Is there a risk?  How large is the risk?

10. Uncertainty is business as usual IARC Classification of potential carcinogenic substances Peter Wiedemann

11. Cancer in humans Sufficient evidence Limited evidence Inadequate evidence Evidence suggesting lack of carcinogenicity Cancer in experimental animals Sufficient evidence Limited evidence Inadequate evidence Evidence suggesting lack of carcinogenicity Mechanistic and other relevant data Mechanistic data “weak,” “moderate,” or “strong”? Mechanism likely to be operative in humans? Overall evaluation Group 1Carcinogenic to humans Group 2AProbably carcinogenic to humans Group 2BPossibly carcinogenic to humans Group 3Not classifiable as to its carcinogenicity to humans Group 4Probably not carcinogenic to humans Source: Cogliano et al. 2008

12. How big is the risk? Source: WHO (2007) : Extremely Low Frequency Fields Environmental Health Criteria Monograph No.23

13. Overview  Topic: Uncertain Risk  Risk Communication  Hurdles and Barriers  Models and Methods  Epilogue

14. Risk Communication Interactive exchange of information about health or environmental risks among risk assessors, managers, news media, interested groups, and the general public. WHO 2004, IPCS Risk Assessment Terminology

15. Risk Communication What is RC?  Tool for delivering evidence based information about risk and safety issues.  Intersection science and civic society

16. Risk Communication Purpose of RC  RC is needed for informed decision making and informed judgements about health impacts

17. RC Examples  What does a positive mammography screening test indicate?  How probable is it to get breast cancer if I have a BRCA 1 mutation?  Are cell phone safe for children?

18. Ingredients of Good RC  Reliable & valid data  Over all picture (don´t lose the sight of the wood for the trees)  Good reporting (transparency, clarity, reasonableness, unbiased information processing)  Credibility

19. Overview  Topic: Uncertain Risk  Risk Communication  Hurdles and Barriers  Models and Methods  Epilogue

20. Basic Challenge Need for evidence based risk communication  “Risk communication is not just a matter of good intentions... Risk messages must be understood by the recipients, and their impacts and effectiveness must be understood by communicators. To that end, it is not longer appropriate to rely on hunches and intuitions regarding the details of message formulation. ” Morgan & Lave, 1990, 358

21. Studies on reporting uncertainties  Rather a limited number of studies  Most of them from UK and US  Context: Medicine, Chemistry, Meteorology, EMF  Effects studied  Preferences  Understandability  Risk perception  Trust & perceived competence

22. Hurdles and Barriers  Complexity  Inquisitorial science system in an adversarial societal context  Mis-attribution of uncertainty  Biased assimilation / confirmation bias

23. Informing about Hazard-related Uncertainty

24. Overview  Topic: Uncertain Risk  Risk Communication  Hurdles and Challenges  Models and Methods  Epilogue

25. Various Models  Risk perception  Risk communication  Dialogue theories  Persuasion theories  Social marketing  Theories of information processing

26. Routes of Information Processing Petty, R. E., & Cacioppo, J. T. (1986). Communication and Persuasion: Central and Peripheral Routes to Attitude Change

27.  Evidence Maps  CORA

28. Evidence Maps  EM are tools for synthesizing reporting evidence  Process structure  Reporting structure

29. Evidence Assessment Evidence Maps Visualization of basic facts Evidence base Pro and con-arguments Conclusion Uncertainty

30. Evidence Map - Elements Pro-Argument: Evidence Basis: Contra-Argument: Conclusion: supporting Remaining Uncertainties attenuating supporting attenuating

31. Routes of Information Processing Petty, R. E., & Cacioppo, J. T. (1986). Communication and Persuasion: Central and Peripheral Routes to Attitude Change

32. Framework for communicating risk assessment reports (CORA) CORA Competency Integrity Quality assurance Transparency Stakeholder involvement

33. More Information

34. Framework for communicating risk assessment (CORA) Disclose information about  Organization & members  Expertise  Quality assurance  Impartiality and integrity  Stakeholder involvement

35. Epilogue The future is not yet know

36. James Lind Alliance

38.  Future project: Reporting evidence including uncertainties of Omics based tests and therapies  Webpage

40. Thank you very much! Peter.Wiedemann@itas.fzk.de www.wiedemannonline.com