1. Recommendations to Inform Development of a Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for the Lake Watershed Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for the Lake Simcoe Watershed Allan Douglas 1, Chris Lemieux 2, Gary Nielsen 3, Paul Gray 3, and Vidya Anderson 4 1 Ontario Centre for Climate Impacts and Adaptation Resources, 2 University of Waterloo, 3 Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, 4 Ontario Ministry of the Environment An Adaptive Management Framework Step 1: Establish Baselines: Climate, Flora, Fauna Step 2: Develop Scenarios for: Climate, Socio- economics Step 3: Assess vulnerability of Natural Assets and Human Society to Climate Change Step 4: Identify and Evaluate Adaptation Options Step 5: Implement Adaptation Options Step 6: Monitor for Change and Adapt as Needed We are here P. Gray, MNR, 2011 Step 1: 11 themes requiring adaptation measures selected The availability of expertise had a significant bearing on the selection of areas in inquiry Step 2: Using a guiding framework, experts assessed the vulnerability of system components (both natural and built) to the impacts of climate variability and climate change in the context of current climate system stresses Step 3: Modelled projections indicate air temperature increases of 1.1 to 6.4 °C depending on future GHG emissions issues Step 4: Using the Policy Delphi method, the planning team developed the questions for the Delphi questionnaire Step 5: Survey contained 11 questions organized according to seven general categories Step 6: More than 80 people contributed 900 ideas and suggestions, which were transformed into 30 recommendations to inform development of the climate change action plan Step 7: To be completed! Climate Change Adaptation Planning Process Policy 7.11 of the Lake Simcoe Protection Plan commits the Ontario Ministries of the Environment (MOE), Natural Resources (MNR) and other partners to develop a climate change adaptation strategy for the Lake Simcoe watershed, by June 2011. The strategy is to identify key recommended adaptation actions needed to increase the resiliency of the Lake Simcoe watershed to the impacts of climate change; identify roles and responsibilities for relevant parties; and identify potential amendments to the Plan to ensure the recommended actions are undertaken. The policy further prescribes the following tasks to be undertaken as a minimum: 1.Assess and evaluate the risk from climate change impacts on the watershed NRCan, 2000 Lake Simcoe Watershed 2.Promote, conduct and support additional research to better understand the impacts of climate change in the watershed, including impacts on wetlands, aquatic life, terrestrial species and ecosystems, headwaters, conservation of life cycles, ground water temperature and levels. 3.Develop an integrated climate change monitoring program to inform decision making and model the impacts of climate change on the water shed, and 4.Begin the development of climate change adaptation plans and promote the building of a Lake Simcoe watershed community of practice in adaptation planning. Background Information STRATEGIC PLANNING The implementation of all recommendations in the Lake Simcoe Protection Plan will significantly improve the environmental health and ecological resilience of the Watershed to the impacts of climate change. LEGISLATION and POLICY Climate change should be integrated into species at risk assessments and Species at Risk Act (SARA) recovery strategies. ENABLERS (including PRINCIPLES) Adaptive management should be a principle embedded in all climate change related planning. As a case in point, given the uncertainty of climate change impacts in the future, constant monitoring and re-evaluation of decisions will enhance a community’s chances of success. Examples of First Order Priority Recommendations