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Atmospheric Mercury Modeling Dr. Mark Cohen NOAA Air Resources Laboratory (ARL) College Park, MD, USA Meeting with John Sherwell, Power Plant Research.

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Presentation on theme: "Atmospheric Mercury Modeling Dr. Mark Cohen NOAA Air Resources Laboratory (ARL) College Park, MD, USA Meeting with John Sherwell, Power Plant Research."— Presentation transcript:

1 Atmospheric Mercury Modeling Dr. Mark Cohen NOAA Air Resources Laboratory (ARL) College Park, MD, USA Meeting with John Sherwell, Power Plant Research Program Maryland Department of Natural Resources April 2, 2013, NCWCP, College Park MD

2 April 2, 2013NOAA Air Resources Laboratory2  Trajectory-based Analysis  Meteorological Analysis  HYSPLIT-Hg – Great Lakes  HYSPLIT-Hg – Maryland  CMAQ-Hg – Li Pan  CAM-Chem-Hg -- Hang Lei this talk MODELING PRESENTATION OUTLINE

3 April 2, 2013NOAA Air Resources Laboratory3  Trajectory-based Analysis  Meteorological Analysis  HYSPLIT-Hg – Great Lakes  HYSPLIT-Hg – Maryland  CMAQ-Hg – Li Pan  CAM-Chem-Hg -- Hang Lei this talk MODELING PRESENTATION OUTLINE

4 4 When we see high concentrations of mercury, where did the air come from? Reactive Gaseous Mercury episode Beltsville, Maryland mercury site April 2, 2013NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

5 5 Chesapeake Bay Baltimore Washington D.C. When we see high concentrations of mercury, where did the air come from? April 2, 2013NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

6 April 2, 2013NOAA Air Resources Laboratory6 Gridded Trajectory Frequency and Residence Time Analysis

7 Rolison, J.M., W.M. Landing, W. Luke, M. Cohen, V.J.M. Salters. Isotopic Composition of Species-Specific Atmospheric Hg in a Coastal Environment. Chemical Geology 336, 37-49, 2013. April 2, 20137NOAA Air Resources Laboratory Distinctly different air mass patterns with different isotopic GEM signatures Low d202Hg GEM samples appear associated with uniformly marine air masses Hg(II)(aq) photoreduction to Hg(0)(aq) and subsequent volatilization has been shown to exhibit mass dependent fractionation --> enrichment in light isotopes in product Hg(0) Thus, less Hg202, a heavier isotope, associated with the marine air masses

8 April 2, 2013NOAA Air Resources Laboratory8  Trajectory-based Analysis  Meteorological Analysis  HYSPLIT-Hg – Great Lakes  HYSPLIT-Hg – Maryland  CMAQ-Hg – Li Pan  CAM-Chem-Hg -- Hang Lei this talk MODELING PRESENTATION OUTLINE

9 Episode BV-20 episode analysis --> can we understand peaks?

10 South-west corner (km)Number of cellsResolution (km) Starting point relative to mother domain X-originY-originEastingNorthingX-directionY-direction D01-2808-2268157127361 1 D02180-15481932231284 21 D031524-1801631514113 115 Projection center: 40N, 100W Standard latitude: 30N, 60N Layers: 43, with model top at 50 mb (1 st layer thickness is 33 m and 15 layers are below 850 mb) Domain configuration D01 D02 D03 10 from Fantine Ngan, Air Resources Laboratory

11 ANE1: base case (EDAS IC/BC, 3D FDDA) ANE1: base case (EDAS IC/BC, 3D FDDA) ANE13: ANE1 + OBJ IC/BC + SFC FDDA + obs nudging ANE23: ANE13 but PX LSM, AMC2 Time series at Beltsville site 11

12 April 2, 2013NOAA Air Resources Laboratory12

13 April 2, 2013NOAA Air Resources Laboratory13  Trajectory-based Analysis  Meteorological Analysis  HYSPLIT-Hg – Great Lakes  HYSPLIT-Hg – Maryland  CMAQ-Hg – Li Pan  CAM-Chem-Hg -- Hang Lei this talk MODELING PRESENTATION OUTLINE

14 Modeling Atmospheric Mercury Deposition to the Great Lakes. Final Report for work conducted with FY2010 funding from the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative. December 16, 2011. Mark Cohen, Roland Draxler, Richard Artz. NOAA Air Resources Laboratory, Silver Spring, MD, USA. 160 pages. http://www.arl.noaa.gov/documents/reports/GLRI_FY2010_ Atmospheric_Mercury_Final_Report_2011_Dec_16.pdf http://www.arl.noaa.gov/documents/reports/Figures_Tables _GLRI_NOAA_Atmos_Mercury_Report_Dec_16_2011.pptx 14 One-page summary: http://www.arl.noaa.gov/documents/reports/ GLRI_Atmos_Mercury_Summary.pdf April 2, 2013NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

15 2005 Atmospheric Mercury Emissions (Direct Anthropogenic + Re-emit + Natural) Policy-Relevant Scenario Analysis 15April 2, 2013NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

16 To simulate the global transport of mercury, puffs are transferred to Eulerian grid after a specified time downwind (~2 weeks), and the mercury is simulated on that grid from then on… When puffs grow to sizes large relative to the meteorological data grid, they split, horizontally and/or vertically This is how we model the local & regional impacts. But for global modeling, puff splitting overwhelms computational resources 16

17 Modeled vs. Measured Wet Deposition of Mercury at Sites in the Great Lakes Region 17April 2, 2013NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

18 18April 2, 2013NOAA Air Resources Laboratory Standard source locations, MDN sites, and mercury emissions in the Great Lakes region

19 Geographical Distribution of 2005 Atmospheric Mercury Deposition Contributions to Lake Erie Policy-Relevant Scenario Analysis 19 Keep track of the contributions from each source, and add them up April 2, 2013NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

20 A tiny fraction of 2005 global mercury emissions within 500 km of Lake Erie Modeling results show that these “regional” emissions are responsible for a large fraction of the modeled 2005 atmospheric deposition Important policy implications! 20 Results can be shown in many ways… April 2, 2013NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

21 21April 2, 2013NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

22 22April 2, 2013NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

23 April 2, 2013NOAA Air Resources Laboratory23  Trajectory-based Analysis  Meteorological Analysis  HYSPLIT-Hg – Great Lakes  HYSPLIT-Hg – Maryland  CMAQ-Hg – Li Pan  CAM-Chem-Hg -- Hang Lei this talk MODELING PRESENTATION OUTLINE

24 Smith Mountain Lake Lake Anna MDN VA28 MDN VA08 MDN VA98 MDN MD08 MDN MD99 MDN PA00 MDN PA47 MDN PA60 MDN PA13 Camden Liberty Lake Reservoir Prettyboy Reservoir Deep Creek Lake Loch Raven Reservoir Tuckahoe Creek Watershed Blackwater Wildlife Refuge St. Mary’s River Watershed Rock Creek Watershed Savage River Reservoir Chesapeake Bay Canaan Valley Institute area and point receptors in and around Maryland in recent HYSPLIT-Hg modeling 24

25 Maryland-Region Area Receptors Included in Recent HYSPLIT-Hg Modeling Exercises 25

26  These receptors – and numerous point receptors – in and around Maryland have been included in recent HYSPLIT-Hg modeling…  To date, not enough resources to provide computational intensity required to produce source-attribution estimates for these Maryland receptors…  However, could be carried out, and in doing so, can leverage earlier model runs, i.e., can use all the runs done for the Great Lakes analysis, and just need to add simulations from “standard sources” in the Maryland region. April 2, 201326NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

27 27 Thanks! April 2, 2013NOAA Air Resources Laboratory

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