1. Scott Curtis, PhD15 October Associate Professor, East Carolina UniversityVirtual Seminar Assistant Director, Center for Natural Hazards ResearchCDRE, Millersville University Center for Natural Hazards Research

2. Established in 2004, with the impetus being the 1999 Hurricane Floyd flood CNHR’s mission is to promote research and analysis that ultimately reduces the harm caused by forces of nature to life, communities, and the environment Dr. Jamie Kruse (director, temporarily at NOAA), Dr. Craig Landry (interim director), Dr. Scott Curtis (assistant director) Hurricane Floyd Symposium www.ecu.edu/hazards Center for Natural Hazards Research

3. Floods and landslides represent the most extreme hazards, especially in terms of loss of life Overpopulation and socio-economic pressures have forced some of the most vulnerable populations into areas of high risk (flood plains and hillsides) Further, land degradation and climate change have exacerbated the problem Center for Natural Hazards Research

4. Pakistan, July-August, 2010 China, August, 2010 Center for Natural Hazards Research

5. Lack of in situ data Transboundary complications Modeling complexities Center for Natural Hazards Research (Wolf et al. 1999; Hossain et al. 2007) Percentage within IRBs Number of Countries 90-10039 80-9011 70-8014 60-7011 50-6017 40-5010 30-4010 20-3013 10-209 0-1011

6. Hossain et al. (2007) Center for Natural Hazards Research

7. The majority of floods and landslides are ultimately caused by extreme rainfall The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission was launched in 1997 and is still flying today Through passive and active sensors onboard as well as complementary satellites, we have learned more about tropical rainfall than ever before TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) Center for Natural Hazards Research

8. To obtain and study multi-year science data sets of tropical and subtropical rainfall measurements. To understand how interactions between the ocean, air, and land masses produce changes in global rainfall and climate. To improve modeling of tropical rainfall processes and their influence on global circulation in order to predict rainfall and its variability at various space and time scales. To test, evaluate, and improve satellite rainfall measurement techniques. Center for Natural Hazards Research

9. ENSO Variability (Curtis et al. 2007) Center for Natural Hazards Research

10. (Curtis, Crawford, Lecce 2007) Center for Natural Hazards Research

11. BasinVolumetric rainfall x10 9 m 3 (bias % w/ gauge) Discharge x10 9 m 3 TRMMRADARGAUGEUSGS Tar - Greenville2.12 (+6%)1.91 (-5%)2.000.92 Neuse - Ft. Barnwell2.88 (+10%)2.57 (-2%)2.610.92 Cape Fear - Kelley2.83 (+49%)1.73 (-9%)1.900.47

12.  Curve numbers are based on empirical rainfall-runoff relationships  Q = (P - 0.2S) 2 / (P + 0.8S) and CN = 1000 / (S + 10); where Q = discharge, P = precipitation, S = maximum retention, and assuming initial abstraction is 20% of S.  CN 55, which fits the gauge and radar data reasonably well represents woodlands in good hydrologic condition. TMPA curve numbers are lower. Thus, if we had global CN numbers, they could be adjusted to account for the difference Center for Natural Hazards Research

13. TAR NEUSE CAPE FEAR gauge TRMM radar Center for Natural Hazards Research

14.  Hong et al. (2007a) extended this work by deriving global CN numbers from remotely sensed data sets of soil and land use.

15. Center for Natural Hazards Research

16. Hong et al. (2007b)

17. Hong, Adler, Huffman (2007) Hong et al. (2007b) Center for Natural Hazards Research 4% of the globe is in the “High” susceptibility category, concentrated in the tropics and subtropics

18. “In the future, the increasing availability of improved yet low-cost remote sensing products that can support geographic information system (GIS)–based landslide models will likely be useful for disaster prevention for landslide- prone regions” Hong, Adler, and Huffman (2007) Center for Natural Hazards Research

19. Hong et al. (2007b) http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/publications_dir/potential_flood_hydro.html Center for Natural Hazards Research

20. To improve ongoing efforts to predict climate by providing near-global measurement of precipitation, its distribution, and physical processes To improve the accuracy of weather and precipitation forecasts through more accurate measurement of rain rates and latent heating To provide more frequent and complete sampling of Earth’s precipitation Scheduled to launch 2013

21. Curtis, S., T.W. Crawford, and S.A. Lecce. 2007. A comparison of TRMM to other basin-scale rainfall during the 1999 Hurricane Floyd flood. Natural Hazards, 43:187-198. Curtis, S., A. Salahuddin, R.F. Adler, G.J. Huffman, G. Gu, and Y. Hong. 2007. Precipitation extremes estimated by GPCP and TRMM: ENSO relationships. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 8:678-689. Hong, Y., R.F. Adler, F. Hossain, S. Curtis, and G.J. Huffman. 2007a. Estimate gridded and time-variant runoff curve numbers using satellite remote sensing and geospatial data. Water Resources Research, 43:W08502. Hong, Y., R.F. Adler, A. Negri, G.J. Huffman. 2007b. Flood and landslide applications of near real-time satellite rainfall products. Natural Hazards, 43:285-294. Hong, Y., R.F. Adler, and G.J. Huffman. 2007. Satellite remote sensing for global landslide monitoring. EOS, 88:357-358. Hossain, F., N. Katiyar, Y. Hong, and A. Wolf. 2007. The emerging role of satellite rainfall data in improving the hydro-political situation of flood monitoring in the under-developed regions of the world. Natural Hazards, 43:199-210. Wolf, A., J. Nathrius, J. Danielson, B. Ward, and J. Pender. 1999. International river basins of the world. International Journal of Water Resource Development, 15:387-427. Center for Natural Hazards Research