1. Johan van den Berg Santam Agriculture Climate outlook for 2014/15 October 2014

8. RSA rainfall deviation (mm) from average

9. Example of El Nino

10. Example of La Nina

13. Forecast for October 2014 –different forecasts Different models eutral Neutral

14. eutral Forecast for December 2014 –different forecasts Different models Neutral

15. eutral Forecast for February 2015 –different forecasts Different models Neutral

19. Indian Ocean

22. Indian Ocean Dipole Index

23. L H H

24. L H H L

25. IOD Index forecast

28. WET DRY VERY DRY WET/ NORMAL

29. La Nina El Nino Neutral Neutral/ El Nino

30. WET DRY VERY DRY WET/ NORMAL La Nina El Nino Neutral Neutral/ El Nino

31. Normal effect of El Nino and Indian Ocean on rainfall

32. JanFebMarAprMay Jun DecNov Oct SepAugJul Positive effect Negative effect Effect on normal rainfall with El Nino present: Central to western Summer Rainfall Area Relative Effect No effect

33. JanFebMarAprMay Jun DecNov Oct SepAugJul Positive effect Negative effect Effect on normal rainfall with El Nino present: Relative Effect No effect Eastern Summer Rainfall Area

34. JulAugSepOctNov Dec JunMay Apr MarFebJan Positive effect Negative effect Effect on normal rainfall with El Nino present Relative Effect No effect Winter Rainfall Area

35. L H H L

36. JanFebMarAprMay Jun DecNov Oct SepAugJul Positive effect Negative effect Effect on normal rainfall with Negative IOD Relative Effect IOD

37. JanFebMarAprMay Jun DecNov Oct SepAugJul Positive effect Negative effect Effect on normal rainfall with Negative IOD and El Nino Relative Effect El Nino IOD

38. JanFebMarAprMay Jun DecNov Oct SepAugJul Positive effect Negative effect Effect on rainfall with Negative IOD and El Nino Relative Effect El Nino IOD Combined effect

39. JanFebMarAprMay Jun DecNov Oct SepAugJul Positive effect Negative effect Effect on normal rainfall with Negative IOD + El Nino Relative Effect Dry spell Normal Combined effect No effect

40. IF POSITIVE MODE + EL NINO……

41. L H H

42. JanFebMarAprMay Jun DecNov Oct SepAugJul Positive effect Negative effect Effect on rainfall with Positive IOD High cyclone frequency Relative Effect No effect

43. JanFebMarAprMay Jun DecNov Oct SepAugJul Positive effect Negative effect Effect on normal rainfall with El Nino present: Central to western Summer Rainfall Area Relative Effect No effect

44. JanFebMarAprMay Jun DecNov Oct SepAugJul Positive effect Negative effect Effect on normal rainfall with El Nino + Positive IOD Relative Effect Drought Good start to season El Nino IOD

45. JanFebMarAprMay Jun DecNov Oct SepAugJul Positive effect Negative effect Effect on normal rainfall with El Nino + Positive IOD Relative Effect Drought Good start to season Not expected for 2014/15 No effect

49. JanFebMarAprMay Jun DecNov Oct SepAugJul Positive effect Negative effect Effect on normal rainfall with Negative IOD + El Nino Relative Effect Dry spell Normal Combined effect No effect

50. Thanks