1. National Integrated Drought Information System Drought Early Warning for the Apalachicola- Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin 17 March 2015

2. Outline Welcome – Eric Reutebuch, AU Water Resources Center Current drought status, seasonal forecasts and outlooks – David Zierden, Florida Climate Center, FSU Streamflows and groundwater – Tony Gotvald, USGS Streamflow forecasts – Jeff Dobur, SERFC ACF reservoir conditions – Bailey Crane, United States Army Corps of Engineers Summary and Discussion

3. Current drought status

4. Rainfall – Last 7 Days

5. 30-Day Rainfall

6. 90-day Rainfall Departures

7. El Nino Rainfall Pattern?

8. 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

9. Let’s Talk El Nino! NOAA upgraded status to “El Nino Advisory” earlier this month, Ten reasons why it’s been here all along…. Klaus Wolter’s MEI at or near El Nino strength since May Dry summer in the Southeast Inactive Atlantic hurricane season Active Eastern Pacific hurricane season Winter rainfall patterns consistent with El Nino (mostly) Split flow and active southern jet stream Heavy snowfall in the Northeast, Texas Negative SOI Westerly winds in the W. Pacific since January NOAA’s ONI index above 0.5 C since October

10. Current SST Anomalies

11. Multivariate ENSO Index

12. Tropical Cyclone Pair

13. Winds over the Pacific

14. Subsurface Temperatures

15. El Ni ñ o Winter/Spring Patterns

16. 1-3 Month Precipitation Outlook 1 Month 3 Month

17. Winter Rainfall Climatology

18. U.S. Drought Outlook

19. Streamflows and Groundwater Tony Gotvald

20. Realtime stream flow compared with historical monthly averages Current: http://waterwatch.usgs.gov Previous Brief:

21. Below Normal 7-day Average Streamflows Below normal 7-day average streamflow as compared with historical streamflow for day shown http://waterwatch.usgs.gov Current: Previous brief:

22. Lake Lanier Inflows http://waterwatch.usgs.gov Chattahoochee near Cornelia (02331600) Chestatee near Dahlonega (02333500)

23. Current Streamflows http://waterwatch.usgs.gov Chattahoochee at Atlanta (02336000) Chattahoochee near Whitesburg (02338000)

24. Current Streamflows Chattahoochee at West Point (02339500) Chattahoochee at Columbus(02341460) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

25. Current Streamflows Flint River near Griffin (02344500) Flint River near Carsonville (02347500) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

26. Current Streamflows Flint River at Albany (02352500) Flint at Bainbridge (02356000) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

27. Streamflows Apalachicola at Chattahoochee (02358000) http://waterwatch.usgs.gov

28. Groundwater Conditions http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov Previous briefCurrent brief

29. Groundwater Status – Miller County 08G001 (Upper Floridan Aquifer)

30. Groundwater Status – Seminole County 06F001 (Upper Floridan Aquifer)

31. Groundwater Status – Early County 08K001 (Upper Floridan Aquifer)

32. Streamflow Forecasts Jeff Dobur

33. Above Normal Near Normal Below Normal Lake Lanier Inflows Whitesburg West Point Columbus WF George Columbus Woodruff Blountstown Lovejoy Carsonville Albany

35. ACF Reservoir Conditions Bailey Crane

36. US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG ® USACE – ACF Reservoir Conditions March 17 th 2015

37. BUILDING STRONG ®

43. Summary – David Zierden Slightly drier than normal in the lower ACF in the last month. Near-normal rainfall over the entire basin in the last three months. ACF designated as drought-free by the US Drought Monitor. NOAA declares El Nino Advisory. Looking back, many climate indicators signal that weak El Nino has been around since summer. SST’s not that warm, but changes are underway. Strong westerly wind events have triggered robust Kelvin wave. CPC Outlooks favor El Nino patter of above normal rainfall for Southern U.S. for the next 1-3 months.

44. Summary – Tony Gotvald Realtime streamflows are in the normal to below normal range for most of the upper ACF basin and in the normal range for the lower ACF. Inflows into Lake Lanier are in the below normal range for the 28-day average flows. Streamflows are in the normal range throughout the Flint River basin the 28-day average flows. Groundwater levels are in the normal to above normal range in Southwest Georgia.

45. 1 Month Streamflow forecast - Near Normal. 3 Month Streamflow forecast – Nearly equal chances at all 3 categories…maybe slightly better chances for normal. Summary- Jeff Dobur

46. Reservoirs remain full. All reservoirs are expected to remain full and West Point has started its seasonal refill to elevation 635. System conservation storage is expected remain near the top of conservation storage(full) through the spring. Basin inflow has fallen below average for this time of year. Summary- Bailey Crane

47. Questions, Comments, Discussion

48. References Additional information  General drought information http://drought.gov http://www.drought.unl.edu  General climate and El Niño information http://agroclimate.org/climate/  Streamflow monitoring & forecasting http://waterwatch.usgs.gov http://www.srh.noaa.gov/serfc/  Groundwater monitoring http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov Speakers David Zierden, FSU Tony Gotvald, USGS Jeff Dobur, SERFC Bailey Crane, United States Army Corps of Engineers Moderator Eric Reutebuch, AU WRC

49. Thank you! Next briefing April 14, 2015 April 14, 2015, 1:00 pm EDT Moderator: Eric Reutebuch Slides from this briefing will be posted at http://drought.gov/drought/content/regional-programs/regional-drought-webinars Please send comments and suggestions to: reuteem@auburn.edu