1. Climate change: The science and the risks Prof Guy F Midgley National Biodiversity Institute University KwaZulu Natal LTAS project lead, IPCC lead author NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE RESPONSE ADAPTATION IMPLEMENTATION

2. Phenomenal increase in wealth and human well-being, esp. wealthiest Urbanisation, often coastal Green revolution, and deforestation Globalisation, trade, information Democratisation, environmentalism Population ~9 billion peak Highest CO 2 level in 5 million years, projected higher than 20 million years by end of century Associated pollution Ocean acidification “Greening”, esp. arid and semi-arid ecosystems Highest temps in > 2000 years Warmer oceans Rising sea level, melting ice and permafrost Increasing rainfall intensity Increasing high temperature and rainfall extremes Changes in ecology

3. Anthropogenic C Emissions: Fossil Fuel Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Canadell et al 2007, PNAS 1990 - 1999: 1.3% y -1 2000 - 2006: 3.3% y -1 185018701890191019301950197019902010 2006 Fossil Fuel: 8.4 Pg C [2006-Total Anthrop. Emissions:8.4+1.5 = 9.9 Pg]

4. Greenhouse effect observed from space Harries, 2001

6. www.mtholyoke.edu Arctic sea ice

8. Permafrost

9. Local impacts of permafrost melt

10. Sea level rise

11. More CO 2 More heat More evaporation More water vapour 11 Trenberth et al 2004 Climate Dynamics

12. More evaporation, more rain 12 Held & Soden 2006; J Climate

13. http://www.earth-policy.org/indicators/C54 Sheffield et al 2012 naturev491 Drought trends 1950-2010

15. Trend in Sea Surface Temp 1982- 2005 Rouault 2007

16. South African land based measurements show warming (1960 to 2003) Adapted from Kruger and Shongwe (2004)

17. Limpopo, annual rainfall trends Total rainfall # raindays

18. 1955 Eastern Cape Courtesy Timm Hoffman (U Cape Town)

19. 2010 Eastern Cape. Courtesy Timm Hoffman ( U Cape Town)

20. LGM 180 ppm Pre-industrial 260 ppm Ambient 375 ppm Above-ambient 450 ppm Acacia sieberiana

21. Arid regions where vegetation cover has increased ~10% since 1980’s Donahue et al in press

22. Linking mitigation to impacts/adaptation

24. Mitigation impact on temperature change

25. IGSM Scenarios (Sokolov et al., 2009, and Webster et al., 2009)

26. Zones used Changes average for the period 2045-2050

27. Mitigation impact on rainfall change, ~2050

28. Mitigation impact on temperature change ~2050

29. Integrated Analytical Framework

30. Mozambique Effects of Global/Local Mitigation Policy Change in total value-added (GDP) 30 20 10 0 40 50 60 Unconstrained Emissions -15% -10%-5%0% Average deviation from baseline, 2046-2050 5% D e n si ty L1 Stablization (with UE prices) L1 Stabilization (with L1S prices)

31. Main risks for South Africa? Observations – increasing mean and maximum temperatures (high confidence) – fewer rain days, no change in total rainfall (medium confidence) – increasing wildfire risk (high confidence) – plant cover increasing due to CO 2 fertilization (medium confidence) – costs of extreme events 2000-2009 at least ~R1 billion per annum (high confidence), trends not known Future risks and opportunities – Extreme climate events – low-lying, flood plain, coastal settlements – Water – drought and flood risk, allocations – Land cover change – vegetation thickening – Human health and discomfort – labour, aged, infants, informal housing, vector-borne diseases – Agriculture and food supply – intensive (livestock, grains, vegetables and fruit), extensive, small scale subsistence – Transport infrastructure – vulnerability, increased specification – Opportunities – using ecosystems/biodiversity to reduce risks

32. Can ecosystems be managed for climate change adaptation? Can this be incentivised? Wetland intact Wetland degrading Wetland degraded ~1940 ~1960 ~2000 +109589