1. Climate Induced Migration and Urban Vulnerability in Eastern Himalayas Dr Sohel Firdos Associate Professor Dept. of Geography Sikkim University INDIA Hamburg Conference: Actions for Climate Induced Migration, 16-18 July, 2013

2. Introducing Eastern Himalayan Region (EHR) Administratively it covers 6 States, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Meghalaya and two states partially i.e. the hill districts of Assam and West Bengal. More than 65% of its geographical area is under forests, representing one-third of the total forest cover and nearly half (46%) of the very good forest cover of India. The forests of the region provide life supporting, provisioning, regulating, and cultural ‘eco-system’ services to millions of local as well as downstream people. Over 9,000 Himalayan glaciers and high altitude lakes form a unique reservoir storing about 12000 km3 of fresh water Administratively it covers 6 States, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Meghalaya and two states partially i.e. the hill districts of Assam and West Bengal. More than 65% of its geographical area is under forests, representing one-third of the total forest cover and nearly half (46%) of the very good forest cover of India. The forests of the region provide life supporting, provisioning, regulating, and cultural ‘eco-system’ services to millions of local as well as downstream people. Over 9,000 Himalayan glaciers and high altitude lakes form a unique reservoir storing about 12000 km3 of fresh water

3. Why studying Climate change in Eastern Himalaya is important? World’s biodiversity hotspots due to its rich natural endowments. The forest cover is about 52% of the total geographical area Petroleum and natural gas reserves of this region constitute about one-fifth of the country’s total potential. Agriculture is the mainstay of most of the states. World’s biodiversity hotspots due to its rich natural endowments. The forest cover is about 52% of the total geographical area Petroleum and natural gas reserves of this region constitute about one-fifth of the country’s total potential. Agriculture is the mainstay of most of the states.

4. This region is vulnerable to water-induced disasters because of fragile geo-environmental setting and economic under-development. The average per-capita income of the region is approximately 30 percent lower than the national average. The region has higher incidences of poverty, even when compared with states having similar average per-capita income. Increasing population and decreasing land productivity, relatively higher dependence on natural resources (e.g. forests) are also constraints for the region’s environmental sustainability. This region is vulnerable to water-induced disasters because of fragile geo-environmental setting and economic under-development. The average per-capita income of the region is approximately 30 percent lower than the national average. The region has higher incidences of poverty, even when compared with states having similar average per-capita income. Increasing population and decreasing land productivity, relatively higher dependence on natural resources (e.g. forests) are also constraints for the region’s environmental sustainability.

5. Livelihood concerns There are concerns of the possible impacts of climate change on agriculture and horticulture in the eastern Himalayan states, which is critical for livelihoods and economic security of people. Evidences suggest that the environmental change has led to the alterations in the timing of flowering and fruiting in plants.

6. FUTURE SCENARIOS OF CLIMATIC VARIABILITY

7. Rainfall projections in EHR Region for 2030 The projected mean annual rainfall is varying from a minimum of 940±149mm to 1330 ±174.5 mm. The increase with respect to 1970’s is by 0.3% to 3%. The north-east also show a substantial decrease in rainfall in the winter months of January and February in 2030’s with respect to 1970’s with no additional rain projected to be available during the period March to May and October to December. However, the monsoon rainfall during June, July and August is likely to increase by 5 mm in 2030’s with reference to 1970’s. A rise of 0.6%.

8. Trends in Precipitation in EHR Region: Predictions for 2030 Exhibits considerable spatial variability with respect to the predictions for the 2030s. The northern part shows a reduction in precipitation varying from 3% in the north-western portion to about 12% in the northeastern portion. In the remaining part of the North-East, there is increase in precipitation varying from 0% to as much as 25% for the central portion of the North-East. In the North-Eastern region, the number of rainy days is likely to decrease by 1–10 days. The intensity of rainfall in the region is likely to increase by 1– 6mm/day.

9. Trends in Evapotranspiration: Predictions for 2030 The majority of the North-Eastern region, but for some parts of Mizoram, Tripura, Manipur and Assam, shows an increase in ET during the 2030s scenario. It is interesting to note that even those parts of Arunachal Pradesh that were showing a decrease in precipitation, show an increase in ET This can only be explained by the occurrence of higher temperatures that enhance the evaporative force. However, the increase in ET ranges from a small fraction to about 20%. The reduction in ET in the southern portion is only marginal.

10. Trends in Water Yield: predictions for 2030 The trend in water yield in the HER is similar to the precipitation trend. The areas that have shown less increase in precipitation show a correspondingly low water yield. The reduction in water yield in Arunachal Pradesh is up to about 20%. An increase in water yield is seen in Assam and Manipur and the magnitude is up to about 40%.

11. Impact on productivity of crops by 2030 Rice: Irrigated rice yields in this region may range between about –10% to 5% with respect to the 1970s, while the impact on rain-fed rice is likely to be in the range of – 35% to 5% in 2030 climate scenarios. Maize: Maize crop yields are projected to reduce by about 40% in North-Eastern region.

12. HOW CLIMATE CHANGE IS GOING TO AFFECT URBAN GROWTH?

13. Population Characteristics Population (in millions)Decadal growth rate (in %) StateRuralUrbanRuralUrban Arunachal Pradesh 1.060.3122.8837.55 Assam26.784.3815.3527.61 Manipur1.890.8210.5842.74 Meghalaya2.360.5927.0431.03 Mizoram0.520.5618.2027.43 Nagaland1.400.57-14.5967.38 Sikkim0.450.15-5.20153.43 Tripura1.380.482.1376.08 Source: Census of India, 2011

14. Percentage of Urban Population

15. Deficits in urban centres Demand for housing is much greater than supply side There is a boom in construction activities, multi- storied building are constructed ignoring the ecological fragility of the town The source of drinking water is springs, a number of which are drying up while other are not protected Only about 40 percent of the households are supplied with tap water Inadequate attention to solid waste management

16. Triple challenges before towns in EHR with reference to CIM They face environmental problems associated with “underdevelopment” (e.g., inadequate housing, sanitation) “development” (e.g., pollution, resource overuse) Relatively limited financial, human and organizational resources and capabilities to deal with these issues

17. Actions for CIM Address the data gaps Systematic observation Building Capacity Use Indigenous knowledge and involve communities in designing climate change adaptation strategies

18. THANK YOU