1. By: Dr. Sumaya Ahmed Zakieldeen Institute of Environmental Studies (U OF K) zakields@yahoo.com

2.  Is the potential to be adversely affected by an event or a change and the ability to cope with or recover from its impacts.  The extent to which climate change may damage or harm a system depends on the system’s sensitivity and ability to adapt to new conditions.

3.  Sudan vulnerable ecosystems, on which the vast majority of the population depends; already suffer from recurrent droughts, overuse of marginal lands, and dominance of biomass use for energy.  Even small changes in climate will have adverse effects on crop, grassland, and forest production because of the fragility of the production systems.

4.  Sudan is particularly concerned with impacts of climate change:  food security is mainly determined by rainfall  more than 70% of Sudan population is directly dependant on climate-sensitive resources for their livelihood.  Climate change represents sustainable development problem that require concerted action and financial support, within and beyond Sudan’s borders.

5.  Agriculture and forestry:  Shift in the agro ecological zones southward  Shrinking in current crop production areas.  Crop yield decline in selected stations by 29% - 71% for Sorghum (more affected than millet) and 15% - 62% for Millet  Gum Arabic yields predicted to decline between 25% and 30% region-wide.

6.  Greater water deficit is expected in years 2030 and 2060, due to a decline in projected rainfall and an increase in the PETs from temperature rise. Human health (Malaria):  Increased Transmission Potential (TP) of malaria in 2030 and 2060, particularly in winter due to higher temperatures.  Climate change may alter the current distributions and intensity of malaria in Sudan.

7. SUDAN NORMAL RAINFALL IN MM FOR THE PERIOD 1941-1970 COMPARED TO 1971-2000 ABH ABN AQQ ARB ARM ATB BAR BNS DMZ DNG DUM NSR FSH GDF GEN HAL HAS HDB HLG JUB KDG KHA KHW KRM KSL KST KUR MLK NHD NYL OBD PSD RAG RNK RSH SNR SHW SHM SHN TKR TOR UMB WAU WHF WMD NAG PIB MAR YEI YAM KAP 22.0024.0026.0028.0030.0032.0034.0036.0038.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 18.00 20.00 22.00 500 mm 200 mm Meteorologica l Authority 2008

8. ABH ABN AQQ ARB ARM ATB BAR BNS DMZ DNG DUM NSR FSH GDF GEN HAL HAS HDB HLG JUB KDG KHA KHW KRM KSL KST KUR MLK NHD NYL OBD PSD RAG RNK RSH SNR SHW SHM SHN TKR TOR UMB WAU WHF WMD NAG MAR PIB 8.00 YAM KAP 22.0024.0026.0028.0030.0032.0034.0036.0038.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 18.00 20.00 22.00 Source: NAPA 2007

9.  Severe poverty levels  Lack of income diversity  Lack of agricultural inputs  Mis-management of resources  Over-cultivation of land  Fragile land or water resources  Poor soil fertility  Deforestation  Conflict over natural resources  Poor extension services  Displacement of communities  Poor sanitation or health services

10. EventOccurrenceVulnerable areassectorsImpacts DroughtFrequent North & Western Sudan (North Kordofan and Darfur), Kassala State and some parts of the rainfed areas in central Sudan. Agriculture, livestock, water resources and health Loss of crops and livestock (food shortage), decline in the hydroelectric power, displacement wildfire FloodsFrequent Areas within the River Nile basin and low areas from extreme South to far North. Mountain areas along Red Sea. Agriculture, livestock, water resources and health. Loss of life, crops, livestock; insects & plant diseases, epidemic/vector diseases, decline in hydro power; damage to infrastructure & settlement areas Heat waves Rare Northern, central parts of Sudan besides the Red Sea State. Health, agriculture & livestock Loss of live, livestock and crops Source: NAPA 2007 Extreme weather and climate events in Sudan - types, frequency, sectors affected, and impact categories

11.  Fluctuation/reduction of production  Deterioration of rangelands/loss of animals  Lack of food security  Migration to nearby towns and to agricultural schemes  People were forced to adopt unfavourable seasonal activities (Cut of trees for charcoal production)

12. Source: Ministry of Agriculture Nyala RF

13. Ecological ZoneAdaptation option Desert Zone (River Nile State) Improving sustainable agricultural practices under increasing heat-stress in the River Nile State Semi desert Zone (North Kordofan State) Environmental conservation and biodiversity restoration in northern Kordofan State as a coping mechanism for rangeland protection under conditions of increasing climate variability Savannah on clayey soil (Gedarief State) Enhancing resilience to rainfall variability through rangeland rehabilitation and water harvesting in the Butana area of Gedarif State Savannah on sandy soil (South Darfour State) Reducing the vulnerability of communities in drought- prone areas of southern Darfur State through improved water harvesting practices

14. Developing a drought early warning system (use of meteorological measurements) Designing and use of water harvesting Extension, training and building awareness (pastoralists, farmers, local people) Combat desertification by a-forestation, fruit tree planting and agro forestry Establishment of rocky barriers to reduce wind speed and intensification of trees planting in villages and towns and along irrigation channels Sand dunes fixation through planting of shelter belts and wind breaks

15. Rehabilitation of Gum Arabic belt Rehabilitation of rangeland and provision of satisfactory veterinary services Introduction of heat and drought resistant Crop varieties Diversification of grown crops in each season to reduce risk of mono-cropping enhancement of biodiversity Introduction of renewable energy sources Provision of revolving fund Poverty reduction

16. As global warming increases, it becomes evident that it will lead to serious direct and indirect impacts on human health around the world.  Direct effects of climate change on human health will include heat stress, with associated cardio-vascular complications, as well as the physical and psychological impact of storms, floods and other extremes climate events  Indirect effects will also take place because of the close relationship between climatic conditions and health determinants such as insect and rodent populations

17.  Changes in climate may alter the distribution of important vector species and increase the spread of diseases to new areas.  E.g. highland populations that fall outside areas of stable endemic malaria transmission may be particularly vulnerable to increases in malaria due to climate warming.  Not only will climate change worsen various current health problems, it may also bring new and unexpected ones.

18.  Illnesses such as meningitis infections appear to be affected by warming and reduced precipitation as epidemics are more prevalent in areas of low humidity. Regions where climate change will reduce rainfall levels could become at risk of meningitis epidemic.  Flooding and extra demand on diminishing water sources could also increase the pollution and contamination of streams, wells, and other water sources in rural areas (significance for some diseases).

19.  Previous studies in Sudan have confirmed the correlation between temperature and precipitation patterns and malaria, meningitis, and leishmaniasis, diseases that afflict millions throughout the country.  The NAPA consultation process confirmed that malaria is a major concern, the other diseases were also prioritized for adaptive measures.  Adaptation activities will need to take into account the diversity of factors that influence the capacity to cope with health outbreaks.

20. ZoneAdaptation project Desert Zone (River Nile State) Reducing vulnerability to increased malaria transmission potential in El Zydab area Semi desert Zone (North Kordofan State) Reduction of vulnerability to increased malaria transmission potential in northern Kordofan state Savannah on sandy soil (South Darfour State) Combating Malaria and Bilharzia in all areas of South Darfour State, particularly the southern part

21.  Building of community awareness regarding preventative measures for malaria, meningitis, and leishmaniasis;  Improve community sanitation and medical services, including capacities for diagnosis and treatment;  Introduction of preventive measures to restrict malaria transmission such as mosquito nets, treatment/drying up of breeding sites;

22.  Introduction of early disease diagnosis and treatment programmes for malaria, meningitis, and leishmaniasis;  Improvement of irrigation system management so as to reduce breeding sites; and  Provision of alternative water supply systems for domestic use that do not involve open standing water areas.

23.  With climate change, extremes (drought, floods) are expected to increase in frequency, and accordingly malaria and other diseases epidemics may increase.  Careful planning and environmental management are required to avoid future epidemics and disasters.  Preparedness is needed to reduce the risk of malaria expanding into new areas (as temperature become more suitable e.g. high land) and seasons (winter) as was speculated from modelling for the disease in western Sudan for the years 2030 and 2060.  More research is needed

24. Decrease of amount of rainfall and high variability of its distribution caused:  Severe Shortage and lack of drinking water particularly during dry season  High cost (time and money)  Water-born diseases

26. PRA Analysis of:  water resources,  vegetation cover  and agricultural for the period between 1940 and 2010

27.  Designing and constructing water harvesting systems (Use of suitable technologies for water harvesting)  Use of water-harvesting techniques in order to increase feeding rate of ground water and to reduce soil erosion  Supply domestic water for people  Supply drinking water for animals  Maximize the utilization of flood water for irrigation of more agricultural lands in order to reduce the food gape  Control flood water to reduce its negative impact on people and to store water for agricultural and domestic and animal uses