1. © NERC All rights reserved Is shale gas a global game- changer? Mike Stephenson

2. © NERC All rights reserved What’s all the fuss about?

3. © NERC All rights reserved Source: Nature Sept 2011

4. © NERC All rights reserved Source: Nature Sept 2011

5. © NERC All rights reserved

7. Shale basics

8. © NERC All rights reserved 1 mm

9. © NERC All rights reserved Where does the organic material come from? Land plant material and seawater algae collect in mud Older, deeper shale layer

10. © NERC All rights reserved 500 m 0 m Biological decay – biogenic methane Organic matter ‘cooked’ – thermogenic methane Old deep shale layer Burial over millions of years

11. © NERC All rights reserved Conventional and unconventional

12. © NERC All rights reserved Conventional and unconventional

13. © NERC All rights reserved Sand grain gas 0.25mm shale sandstone

14. © NERC All rights reserved Adsorbed gas and gas in pores

15. © NERC All rights reserved Shale layer sandstone Cap rock Conventional: Trap Unconventional: Continuous accumulation

16. © NERC All rights reserved Fracking basics Cracks the shale High pressure water or nitrogen, 350-700 bar (350 to 700 atmospheres)

17. © NERC All rights reserved Where is the shale?

18. © NERC All rights reserved Britain

19. © NERC All rights reserved Polish shale gas

20. © NERC All rights reserved Siekierki power station in Warsaw

21. © NERC All rights reserved Russia and gas

22. © NERC All rights reserved Poland’s choices? Renewables –little potential? Nuclear, long lead in (10 yrs), expensive Keep burning coal and pay the ?high carbon price Build gas plants (1-2 yrs), pay ETS, rely on imported gas? CCS on coal fired power stations Polish shale gas in gas fired power stations

23. © NERC All rights reserved If Poland switched from coal fired power stations to gas fired power stations it would cut its CO2 emissions by 41-49%

24. © NERC All rights reserved

25. Shale gas and the environment

26. © NERC All rights reserved

28. Clash of cultures

29. © NERC All rights reserved Groundwater contamination

30. © NERC All rights reserved Woody material δ 13 C ~ -23.5 ‰ (Stephenson et al. 2008, 2010) plankton and algae δ 13 C ~ -28.0 ‰ Basics: Environments, organic matter and δ 13 C Typical lower Carb organic matter δ 13 C ~ -25.0 ‰

31. © NERC All rights reserved Basics: Methane – biogenic and thermogenic Biogenic/bacterial (e.g. wetland, landfill) – high C 1 /C 2+ ratio, low δ 13 C values Thermogenic (e.g. natural gas, coalbed methane) – low C 1 /C 2+ ratio, higher (less negative) δ 13 C values

32. © NERC All rights reserved Contamination from fracking? Osborn et al. 2011, PNAS Studied: Methane in shallow water wells in shale gas areas measured methane content and δ 13 C

33. © NERC All rights reserved What did they find? Higher methane concentrations in water wells close to shale gas wells δ 13 C suggests thermogenic Authors then say ‘likely to be shale gas from the fracking’ No evidence of contamination with fracking fluids

34. © NERC All rights reserved Water wells Unlikely to have casing failure on so many new wells Shale well

35. © NERC All rights reserved Not peer reviewed Dec 2011 Molofsky et al. 2011

36. © NERC All rights reserved Molofsky et al. 2011

37. © NERC All rights reserved Molofsky et al. 2011

38. © NERC All rights reserved Hydraulic connectivity between the shale gas formations and the overlying shallow drinking water aquifers? Hydraulic connectivity? Warner et al. 2012

39. © NERC All rights reserved Types of groundwater

40. © NERC All rights reserved Role of science

41. © NERC All rights reserved Concerns about shale gas Things we don't have to worry about Things we need to regulate carefully for public safety and public opinion Independent science: assess risk Low risk High risk

42. © NERC All rights reserved Conclusions Shale gas could be a game changer Britain might have substantial potential for shale gas No peer-reviewed evidence of methane contamination from fracking Earthquakes are a natural result of fracking but should be manageable Peer-reviewed independent science has a special role in building regulator, investor and public confidence

43. © NERC All rights reserved http://www.bgs.ac.uk/research/energy/shalegas/