1. U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Climate Change & Invaders: Sources of Uncertainty in Managing the Great Lakes Region Cindy Kolar Science Advisor, Fisheries Program USGS – Reston, VA

2. Drivers of Ecosystem Change Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005. Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis. Island Press, Washington, DC.

3. What are Invasive Species? Executive Order 13112 (1999): "Invasive species" means an alien species whose introduction does or is likely to cause economic or environmental harm or harm to human health. "Alien species" means, with respect to a particular ecosystem, any species, including its seeds, eggs, spores, or other biological material capable of propagating that species, that is not native to that ecosystem.

4. Decimated native fishes High annual cost of control: currently $22 million/year Photo: USFWS Sea Lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) Figure: USGS

5. Zebra & Quagga Mussels (Dreissena sp.) Dramatic impacts on ecosystem Clog water intakes at a cost of $3billion/yr (Pimentel et al. 1999) Photo: USGS http://nas.er.usgs.gov

6. Purple loosestrife (Lythrum salicaria) http://nas.er.usgs.gov Photo: Byrd, Mississippi State University, Bugwood.org Photo: USGS Decrease biodiversity of invertebrates Decreased native plant biomass

7. Establishment Negative Effects PREVENT ERADICATE CONTROL Transportation Introduction Within native range Process of Species Spread

8. Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region Kling, G.W., K. Hayhoe, L.B. Johnson, J.J. Magnuson, S. Polasky, S.K. Robinson, B.J. Shuter, M.M. Wander, D.J. Wuebbles, D.R. Zak, R.L. Lindroth, S.C. Moser, and M.L. Wilson (2003). Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: Impacts on our Communities and Ecosystems. Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, Massachusetts, and Ecological Society of America, Washington, D.C. http://dspace.cigilibrary.org/jspui/handle/123456789/23494

9. Climate Change: Temperature Increases  In the Great Lakes, seeing fewer days below freezing  Water is warming twice as fast as air Kling et al. (2003)

10. Temperature Increases and Trade  Commercial shipping historically an important vector for introducing invasive species in the Great Lakes  Decreased ice cover will open additional shipping routes  Allow for faster and potentially more sea voyages  Could improve survivorship of organisms associated with ships http://www.economist.com/node/21530079

11. Other Expected Climate Changes in the Great Lakes  Changes in water and air temperature, water depth, velocity, and timing  Changes in hydrologic and fire regimes (increase in precipitation and storms)  Longer growing season – longer period of stratification  Shorter winter

12. Result of Changing Climate  All act to alter habitat suitability for plants and animals, native and nonnative  Shifts in community composition  Range changes of native and nonnative species  Some nonnative species may become invasive  ‘Winners’ and ‘losers’ will emerge

13. Invasive Species and Climate Change  Establishment of additional species  Established nonnative species may become invasive  Impact of existing invasive species may change  Distribution of existing invasive species

14. Predicting Range Shifts Rodda et al. (2009) Burmese Pythons

15. Case Study: Common Reed (Phragmites australis) Tall, invasive wetland plant that forms dense stands Impairs wetland functions Reduces biodiversity and property values Limits human uses of beaches and recreational areas Extremely difficult and costly to eradicate once established

16. Case Study: Common Reed (Phragmites australis) USGS Great Lakes Science Center (Mazur and Kowalski) in collaboration with Michigan Tech Research Institute - Great Lakes Restoration Initiative project Used current extent of Phragmites and vulnerability risk assessment to create a decision support tool to aid managers prioritize control efforts

17. Case Study: Common Reed (Phragmites australis) Sampled 800 wetlands and used satellite imagery to map current distribution of Phragmites Used a Geographic Information System (GIS) and knowledge of hydrologic alteration, shoreline development, and excessive nitrogen to develop a Habitat Suitability Index

18. Phragmites Spread Potential Low lake levels recently have provided opportunities Phragmites to colonize newly exposed areas Scientists simulated effects of additional lake level declines and the Habitat Suitability Model to predict potential spread

19. Phragmites Decision Support Tool Vulnerability assessment and distribution map available online Tool allows land managers, home owners, and other users to access and visualize mapping data at a variety of scales http://www.mtri.org/phragmites.html

20. Tipping the Scale? Could climate change improve marginal conditions for species yet to invade? Case Study: Asian carp Bighead and silver carps Large-bodied planktivores Introduced in the 1970s Escaped into waterways Bighead carp Silver carp

21. Extent of Distribution  Reproducing in about 20 states  Nonindigenous Species Database (http://nas.er.usgs.gov) Bighead carpSilver carp

22. Preventing Entry into the Great Lakes  Proximity to Lakes Michigan and Erie  Asian Carp Regional Coordinating Committee

23. Factors Potentially Limiting Success  Suitable temperature  Availability of suitable spawning and nursery habitat  Sufficient available food resources

24. BigheadSilver  Maps based only on air temperature and other factors determine where fish can live  Need 2685 degree days over 15C to mature  Might not be currently met in some Lake Superior drainages  Affects food availability and potentially habitat Suitable Temperature? Mandrak and Cudmore 2004

25. Spawning and Nursery Habitat?  Need flowing water to spawn (perhaps around 100 km)  River length needed related to temperature  May be additional pressure to remove barriers to flow Kolar et al. 2007

26. Food Resources?  Cooke and Hill (2010)  Bioenergetics modeling  Considered only planktonic food resources  Predicted that Asian carp should do well in parts of Lake Erie and other productive areas  But not in open water of Great Lakes  Increase in temperature would increase productivity and food availability

27. Asian Carp and Ecosystem Services Provisioning Services Water quality Transportation Navigation Restructuring of fish communities Recreational angling Commercial fishing Regulatory Services Maintenance of water quality Flood flow buffering Cultural Services Recreation Tourism Existence values Supporting Services Nutrient cycling and primary production Ecosystem resilience Habitat for native species

28. Asian Carp and Ecosystem Services Three factors potentially affecting establishment and ecological effects of Asian carp in the Great Lakes would be exasperated by increases in temperature

29. Other Factors Affecting Habitat  Water depth, velocity, timing  Hydrologic and fire regimes  Physical, chemical, and biological components of habitat  Invasive sp. advantage: habitat generalists

30. Response of Plants and Animals  Where species are located: range shifts  Timing of biological events: phenology  Biotic interactions: predation, competition

31. Nonnative Diseases & Pathogens: Ichthyophonus  Protozoan parasite  Yukon chinook salmon Jim Winton, Western Fisheries Research Center

32. Prevalence of Ichthyophonus in the Yukon River System

33. Considerations Preventing & controlling invasive species is high priority & resource-intensive Invasive species issues are complicated by climate change, other global changes, & associated uncertainties Understanding and minimizing these uncertainties will become more important with additional environmental stressors

34. Considerations Baseline information on species distribution is critical to future success Modeling predict future scenarios is important to resource managers USGS will continue to maintain & improve databases & provide research to help managers make more informed decisions