1. SOEST Contribution to PacIOOS Modeling Subgroup Oceanography: Paulo Calil Glen Carter Tommy Jensen Yanli Jia Doug Luther Jim Potemra Kelvin Richards Meterology: Steve Businger Dave Chen Ocean & Res Eng: Kwok Fai Cheung

2. Nowcast estimates of upper ocean circulation Nowcast and forecast estimates of wave/water level Forecast estimates of upper ocean circulation Forecast estimates of atmospheric conditions Synthesis of ocean observations via data assimilation Model-based products Users Search and rescue Ocean recreation Travel/transportation Wave/run-up/tracer models Weather forecasters Policy/planning Research community Ocean circulation Wave/water level Atmosphere Model Systems

3. 1. Product Development: initial effort construction of regional nowcast maps of ocean circulation based on daily downloads of operational models run by/at NRL Stennis –NLOM (3.4 km, 100m upper layer, 200m isobath, assimilates SSH) –NCOM (14 km, 40-levels, 5m isobath, assimilates T/s from NLOM/MODAS) Notes: –These models will be replaced by HYCOM (9 km) at the end of 2007 (mandate is end of FY08) –Will require DM/web work rather than modeling expertise –Can be done quickly and inexpensively –IPRC/APDRC activity leverage –Frees SOEST from operational responsibilities –Not ideal for tracer/trajectories nor research –¼ FTE for technical support

4. Integration of three locally-run modeling subsystems: atmosphere (MET), ocean circulation (IPRC), wave/water level (ORE) Wave model up and running; already operational Atmospheric model up and running; already operation; not ideal model Ocean model(s) under development 2. Product Development: local model

5. Wave model system Wave Watch 3 Global, 1x1 degree Wave Watch 3 Regional, 10x10 km SWAN Island-region, 100x100 m Upper-ocean currents Atmospheric forcing Wave and water levels

6. RSM/MSM Island-domain 1x1 km (Chen/Businger) Atmospheric model system Global Forecast System NCEP RSM/MSM Regional 10x10 km (Chen/Businger) Surface forcing Weather forecasting WRF Nested to 1x1 km (TBA)

7. RSM/MSM Island-domain 1x1 km (Chen/Businger) Atmospheric model system Global Forecast System NCEP RSM/MSM Regional 10x10 km (Chen/Businger) Surface forcing Weather forecasting WRF Nested to 1x1 km (TBA)

8. Regional (125x125 m) POM IPRC (Jensen) Ocean model system Global HYCOM NRL Regional (5x5 km) HYCOM IPRC (Jia) Ocean currents Sea level Transports Synthesized observations Research activities Surface forcing MET Observations PacIOOS/DMAC Regional (variable) ROMS IPRC (TBA)

9. Regional (125x125 m) POM IPRC (Jensen) Ocean model system Global HYCOM NRL Regional (5x5 km) HYCOM IPRC (Jia) Ocean currents Sea level Transports Synthesized observations Research activities Surface forcing MET Observations PacIOOS/DMAC Regional (variable) ROMS IPRC (TBA)

10. Model development timeline Wave model –Maintain (now) Atmospheric model –Maintain (now) –Upgrade to WRF (end year 1) –Coupled model (in year 3) Ocean models: –Serve operational model output (in year 1) –Continue HYCOM (products end year 1) –Continue POM (products in year 1) –Develop ROMS (year 2-3) –Coupled model (in year 3-out)

11. Ocean models Serving operational model –Immediate-- Insufficient resolution –Run elsewhere Continue regional models –Experience-- Need resources –Underway-- Not yet operational –Experiments-- Rely on atm and global model –Research capable –Tracer/trajectories –Configurable

12. Ocean models, cont’d HYCOM –Fits global model-- Expensive –Experience-- Rely on NRL –Advanced physics-- Small user base POM –Experience-- Few modules –Large user base-- BC’s –Efficient-- Very small domain ROMS –Large user base-- Not yet tested here –Many modules-- BC’s –Easy to configure –Used in other regions

13. ModelPersonnelMonths/year$K/year Atm modelprogrammer/tech/pdoc12/12/1290/90/90 TOTAL90/90/90 Wave modelprogrammer/tech/pdoc12/12/1290/90/90 TOTAL90/90/90 Ocean model HYCOMJia (model devel)03/02/0245/30/30 Yaremchuk (data assim)02/02/0130/30/15 Potemra (man/eval)01/01/0115/15/15 POMJensen (model devel)03/02/0245/30/30 Potemra (man/eval)01/01/0115/15/15 ROMSprog/tech/pdoc (model devel)12/07/0560/35/25 Yaremchuk (data assim)01/02/0115/30/15 Potemra (man/eval)01/01/0115/15/15 TOTAL240/200/160

14. Resources, cont.’d Year 1Year 2Year3 Ocean model240200160 Atm model 90 90 90 Wave model 90 90 90 Equipment 1,2 120 0 40 1.LOI listed equipment under Ocean model 2.Cluster/disks in yr1, upgrade to disks yr2

15. Miscellaneous Concerns Rely critically on DM component for data storage and transport Rely on linkages for product development (DM group?) Model evaluation Integrate research activities Determine necessary and sufficient grid spacing, domain boundary (balance with runtime)

19. NOAA PRIDE: Nearshore circulation and wave modelling Kaneohe Bay, Oahu 10.8 km x 14.4 km. POM with 123 m x 132 m resolution 11 vertical topography following levels (resolution: 5 cm to 11 m) Depth range: 1 m to 100 m Mellor and Donelan (2006) surface wave model (24 wave directions) Currents and wave field for trade wind conditions (15 m/s). Swell: 3m, 10s Bathymetry

20. Comparison with tidal data HYCOM dx=0.08 o OfES (Qscat) dx=0.10 o HYCOM dx=0.04 o OfES (ECMWF) dx=0.10 o NLOM (NCEP) dx=0.06 o

21. Comparison with T/P data HYCOM dx=0.08 o OfES (ECMWF) dx=0.10 o OfES (Qscat) dx=0.10 o HYCOM dx=0.04 o rms SSH variance (2 o horizontal smoothing) T/P data HYCOM.04

22. Comparison with CTD data (HOT2 station)

23. Cross-validation of the models using SSH MIT GCM, ‘93-’97, [Lee et al., 2002] Model-data correlations