1. 8/5/2010 National Petroleum Council Future Transportation Fuels Study - Engines/Vehicles Subgroup Overview (part of Supply & Infrastructure Task Group) 1 Britta K. Gross 24 Aug 2010

2. 07/26/2010 Engines/Vehicles Subgroup – Membership (Chair, Engine/Vehicle - General Motors - Alan Taub) GM: Britta Gross 586-596-0382 britta.gross@gm.com Toyota: Bill Reinert 310-468-4047 Bill_Reinert@Toyota.com Ford: Dominic diCicco 313-594-2916 DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE For NPC Study Discussion Only Tier 3 - Stakeholders or Focus Group Members (tent.) Joan Ogden (UC Davis) Dennis Assanis (UM) Sandia: Jay Keller/Art Pontau (basic combustion) Oak Ridge: Ron Graves (applied combustion) Argonne: Michael Wang/Larry Johnson (WTW, veh sim, hybrid) NREL: Matt Thornton/Dale Gardner (veh sim) Honda: Jeff Jetter (TBD) 310-781-5754 jjetter@hra.com Marathon: Mike Leister meleister@marathonoil.com Exxon: Charlie Schleyer 856-224-2906 charles.h.schleyer@exxonmobil.com Tier 2 - Specialized Team members/ Contributors: EIA: John Maples 202-586-1757 john.maples@eia.doe.gov CAR: Brett Smith 734-929-0491/734-255-0884 bsmith@cargroup.org EPA: Chet France (TBD) 734-214-4338 france.chet@epa.gov Chrysler: Gary Oshnock 248-576-7466/c248-425-0870 gro1@chrysler.com FEV: Chris Baillie 248-373-6000 x2737 baillie@fev-et.com VW: Stuart Johnson 248-754-4208 stuart.johnson@vw.com Tier 1 - Core Team Members:

3. 08/05/2010 3 Engines/Vehicles Subgroup – Scope In Scope: Spark ignition engine technologies that address thermodynamic, pumping and friction losses Compression ignition (diesel) technologies that include advanced combustion and after-treatment Improved transmission systems Reduced accessory loads Vehicle enablers such as low rolling resistance tires, improved aerodynamics and mass reduction A range of hybridization options A range of fuels including Gasoline, Ethanol, Butanol, Biogasoline, Future Gasoline, Diesel, DME, Biodiesel, Future Diesel, Other Biofuels, Renewable Diesel Impact of fuel composition (e.g. E85) and properties, such as octane and cetane, as vehicle efficiency enablers Impact of alt fuels on driving range (e.g. E85) and refueling time Impact of alt fuels on engine/vehicle technologies (e.g. cost of hardening engine systems for E85) Out of Scope: Engines operating on gaseous fuels, plug-in hybrids, battery electric vehicles, fuel cells and free-piston engines (all covered by other subgroups) Auxiliary uses of ICE (e.g. using ICE to charge battery) DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE For NPC Study Discussion Only

4. 08/05/2010 4 Engines/Vehicles Subgroup – Scope Paragraph Engines/Vehicles Subgroup - Scope The focus of the Engines/Vehicles Subgroup will be to analyze and summarize studies assessing the fuel consumption benefits and costs for a range of engine and vehicle technologies. Included are: a range of spark ignition and compression ignition engine technologies; improved transmissions; reduced accessory loads; vehicle enablers such as low rolling resistance tires, improved aerodynamics, and mass reduction; and a range of hybridization options. Also included will be an investigation of how alternative fuels, such as ethanol, or changes in fuel properties, such as increased octane and cetane, can enable improved vehicle efficiency and how alternative fuels impact driving range and refueling time. Alternative combustion technologies, such as turbine and Stirling engines will be discussed briefly. Technologies that are out of scope because they are covered by other teams include engines operating on gaseous fuels, plug-in electric vehicles, fuel cells, and free-piston engines. DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE For NPC Study Discussion Only

5. 08/05/2010 Engines/Vehicles Subgroup - Light Duty Vehicle/Fuel Pathways SI cars and light trucksCI cars and light trucks Oil Refining Gasoline X Unconvention Oil RefiningX Corn Fermentation Ethanol X Sugar FermentationX Cellulosic ConversionX Other PathwaysX Various Pathways Butanol X Various Pathways Biogasoline X Various Pathways Future Gasoline X Oil Refining Diesel X Unconvention Oil Refining X CTL X GTL X Various Pathways DME X Oil and Fat Esterification Biodiesel X Various Pathways Future Diesel X Various Pathways Other Biofuels X Various Pathways Renewable diesel X

6. 08/05/2010 6 Supply and Infrastructure Team (higher level) – Framing Questions Draft Framing Questions: 1.What is the range of (volume) projections for U.S. transportation fuel supply through 2050 ? 2.What is the projected composition for the 2050 fuels portfolio? 3.What assumptions and drivers underlie different supply projections? 4.How will low-carbon fuels phase into and out of the supply portfolio? 5.What technologies are needed for transitioning to a low-carbon fuels portfolio? 6.What are the development pathways for these technologies? 7.Which fuel /engine synergies generate the greatest efficiency gains in 2050? 8.What land, water, and other environmental resource issues will impact future fuel supply? 9.What factors will accelerate the supply at scale of non-fossil fuels? 10.What infrastructure will be needed for the 2050 fuels portfolio? 11.How should gaps between the current and future fuels infrastructure be addressed? 12.What are the state and regional implications of the 2050 fuels portfolio and infrastructure? 13.What are the investment and financing requirements for a low-carbon fuels infrastructure? 14.What changes to regulatory processes would accelerate development of new infrastructure? DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE For NPC Study Discussion Only

7. 08/05/2010 7 Engines/Vehicles Subgroup – Framing Questions 8/23/2010 DRAFT – DO NOT CITE OR QUOTE For NPC Study Discussion Only Supply, Volume and Mix/Portfolio  What is the range of (volume) projections for each vehicle and engine type U.S. transportation fuel supply through 2050 ? What constraints are there on vehicle/engine technology implementation, including volume, ramp-up, …?  What is the projected composition or vehicle/engine mix for 2050? What scenarios of propulsion mixes in the vehicle parc are able to meet the energy and emissions goals of the study? (Integration Effort ; Demand team)  What assumptions and drivers underlie different projections? (see also question 1 above)  How do the propulsion options compare in ability to meet transportation needs of consumers? (Integration Effort)  What is the potential impact of changes in driver behavior, such as reduced speed limits, on energy consumption and emissions?  How will vehicles/engine types phase in and out to enable greater usage of vehicles/engine types which utilize low-carbon fuels? (Integration Effort) Technologies, Barriers and Pathways  What technologies are needed for transitioning to vehicles and engine types that utilize low-carbon fuels?  What are potential vehicle increases in fuel efficiency over the period of the study?  What technology options will be combined in the portfolio to achieve this fuel efficiency?  What impact will fuel efficiency improvement have on vehicle cost?  Which fuel /engine synergies generate the greatest efficiency gains in 2050? (Integration Effort)  What are the development pathways for these technologies? Environmental Considerations  How do each of the vehicle options compare in potential for zero or near-zero tailpipe emissions? (Integration Effort)  Of the scenarios that meet the energy and emissions goals which has the lowest criteria emissions? (Integration Effort) Infrastructure Considerations  Of the scenarios that meet the energy and emissions goals: (Integration Effort)  which provides the lowest total well-to-wheels cost of transportation?  which requires the lowest investment (fuel infrastructure plus vehicle cost)?  How should gaps between the current state and future state be addressed? (Integration Effort)  What fuels or energy carriers are required to enable the greatest fuel efficiency increases?  What are the investment and financing requirements for the future state of engines and vehicle types?  What are the incremental costs of producing the new portfolio of engines and vehicles? Policy: What are the state and regional implications of the 2050 future state of engine and vehicle types? (??) Security: Are there security implications? What could disrupt the supply chain /infrastructure and what mitigations could be in place, for eg, supply of raw materials, nationalization? Any infrastructure vulnerabilities (Assume rare earth metal subject handled by electrical subgroup) In Review

8. 08/05/2010 Engines/Vehicles Subgroup - Deliverables A report summarizing status, drivers, potential, and cost effectiveness of increases in engine and vehicle efficiency Background: Light duty vehicle fuel economy history Current regulations Vehicle and fuel technology options Analysis of existing literature For 3 classes of light duty vehicle (small car, large car, large LD truck): – fuel consumption –incremental cost to consumer of technology –timing (availability of first gen and mature technology) –vehicle emissions (CO2, NOx, SOx, VOC, PM) –vehicle driving range Cost effectiveness of technology options –$ increase in cost of vehicle ownership/ton of GHG saved at reference case fuel price –$ increase in cost of vehicle ownership/bbl of oil saved at reference case fuel price –Breakeven gas price (gasoline price that offsets incremental cost of various vehicle fuel efficiency improvements) Include estimates of changes in driving behavior, such as vehicle speeds, on fuel consumption 8 -- mild hybridization -- strong hybridization -- light-weighting -- low rolling resistance -- aerodynamic improvements -- flex fuel -- direct injection -- variable valves -- downsizing and turbo-charging -- HCCI -- advanced transmissions -- diesel -- octane -- cetane -- sulfur -- E85 -- DME -- biodiesel

9. 08/05/2010 9 Task DescriptionActual Date Develop Preliminary Scope and Framing Questions23 July 2010 Establish Core Team15 August 2010 Finalize Draft Scope and Framing Questions with Core Team30 August 2010 Core Team Bi-weekly Meetings Launched3 September 2010 Complete first draft of vehicle assumptions30 September 2010 Engines/Vehicles Subgroup - Startup Approach