1. Shopper Insight Focus Report, Flour
Rachael Arding, Project Executive
HGCA and VCR² Kent Business School Report

2. Contents Providing Shopper Insights Objectives
Data Sharing Restrictions
Executive Summary
Analysis
Appendix

3. Health Warning!
The dunnhumby data offers unparalleled breadth and depth but it does not tell us why shoppers behave the way they do
Further research is warranted in order to understand the purchasing drivers (e.g. attitudes, perceptions, motivations) before changes are made to the marketing mix (product, price, place, promotion) or resources are deployed for the development of new products

4. Providing Shopper Insights

5. Providing Shopper Insights
Collaboration between HGCA and the Centre for Value Chain Research at Kent Business School since 2005
Sponsorship of PhD students
Access to panel of 1.4 million supermarket shoppers
Provide generic and tailor made insight reports for the industry free of charge

6. Centre for Value Chain Research

7. Objectives

8. Objectives
Provide an overview of shopper behaviour and shopper segmentation for Flour category
Identify opportunities for market/product development
Highlight potential areas for further research
Demonstrate the breadth and depth of shopper insight that is available to farmers and small food producers 8

9. Data Sharing Restrictions

10. Data Sharing Restrictions
This information is supplied by Kent Business School on the strict understanding that recipients use it exclusively as part of their own marketing and product development activities. Under no circumstances should the information provided be shared with third parties, without our prior consent. Failure to comply with these requirements will result in the organisations involved being denied further (subsidized) access to the dunnhumby data and may jeopardise this service provision for farmers and small food producers in the future.

11. Executive Summary

12. Executive Summary (1) Shopper Behaviour Regional Hotspots
Specialty flour including bread mixes is the largest category share, by value, at 41% of the category.
Impressive sales growth for the ‘Free from’ range which may be the result of the increasing interest of shoppers for health issues. However, due to a still low figure for penetration, there may be opportunities to launch new products and or adapt the offer to shoppers.
Customer penetration figures are all lower than 50%, indicating that such a basic cooking ingredient as flour is not widely used.
Repeat rates are fairly strong suggesting there are some loyal customers who buy these products. However there are still room for increasing these figures for example in the Organic subgroup.
Regional Hotspots
The best performing store has a penetration figure of just above 33% which denotes how the category struggles to attract more shoppers.

13. Executive Summary (2) Shopper Segmentation Life-stage Lifestyle Region
Pensioners and Older shoppers enjoy cooking activities are the segments of shoppers more likely to buy flour products
Specialty products and Free from range are appealing to younger shoppers
Lifestyle
Less Affluent shoppers are mostly appealed by Plain and Self raising alternatives
With a value added and a corresponding premium the specialised ranges attract the more affluent shoppers.
Region
East England county dominates the Plain and Self raising categories.
Northern Ireland and Scotland perform best for the specialised range 13

14. Executive Summary (3) Basket Analysis
Other ready meals and convenience foods are closely associated with purchases of Flour products.
Yeast and other baking products are mostly bought alongside flour products which indicates a clear purpose for a shopping mission.
The difference in products bought along with organic flour products only, is not that widely marked. 14

15. Composition of Flour Category
Analysis
Composition of Flour Category

16. Composition of Flour Category
Free From Range Flour (4 products)
Organic Flour (10 products)
Plain Flour (15 products)
Self Raising Flour (14 products)
Specialty Flour (50 products)

17. Analysis
Key Measures

18. Key Measures Category Share Sales Growth Penetration
The share of sales for each product sub-group as a % of total category sales
(Highlights the relative importance of different product sub-groups)
Sales Growth
Year on year growth of sales, by volume and value
(Illustrates performance of different sub-groups over time)
Penetration
% of shoppers who have made at least one purchase in the last 52wks
(Indicates scope for attracting new buyers).
Frequency of Purchase
The average number of times a purchase as been made in the last 52wks
(Indicates scope for increasing product usage)
Repeat Purchase Rate
% of shoppers who have made at least two visits to the category in the last 52wks
(Gives an indication of product performance and shopper loyalty)

19. Key Measures: Flour (52 wks to 28-Dec-08)
Specialty flour including bread mixes is the largest category share by value at 41% of the category.
Impressive sales growth for the Free from range which may be the result of the increasing interest of shoppers for health issues. However, the penetration of the subgroup is still very low therefore the impact on the overall category growth remains limited.
Flour being a basic commodity we would expect a higher figure for Customer Penetration for these products. This may denote the disappearance of the traditional shopper type cooking from scratch.
Repeat rates are fairly strong suggesting there are some loyal customers who buy these products. However there are still room for increasing these figures for example in the Organic subgroup

20. Weekly Sales Trends: Flour categories (104 wks to 28-Dec-08)
Source: © dunnhumby 2009

21. Analysis
Shopper Segmentation

22. Shopper Segmentation
Shopper profiles are presented in index form, with 100 representing the average for all supermarket shoppers
Over-indexing segments purchase a disproportionately high share – they find them appealing
Under-indexing segments purchase a disproportionately low share – they find them less appealing.
In looking for potential target segments (those which are under or over performing) attention is drawn to those which over-index or under-index by at least 10%
Further segmentation, by geo-demographics and detailed lifestyle can be provided upon request

23. Lifestage Segmentation: Total flour (12 weeks to 15.02.2009)
Young adults are less buying into the flour category
Source: © dunnhumby 2009
Young families are more likely to buy flour than other shoppers 23

24. Lifestyle Segmentation: Total flour (12 weeks to 15.02.2009)
Mid market shoppers are slightly less appealed by Flour than other lifestyles
Source: © dunnhumby 2009 24

25. Regional Segmentation: Total flour (12 weeks to 15.02.2009)
Source: © dunnhumby 2009
Thighs are the only chicken part to appeal to Pensioners 25

26. Lifestage Segmentation: Plain and Self raising flour (12 weeks to 15
Self raising flour appeal strongly to Pensioners
Source: © dunnhumby 2009
Young families are more likely to buy Plain flour than other shoppers

27. Lifestyle Segmentation: Plain and Self raising flour (12 weeks to 15
Plain flour appeals to Up market shoppers whilst Self raising products tend to be preferred by Less Affluent shoppers
Source: © dunnhumby 2009

28. Thighs are the only chicken part to appeal to Pensioners
Regional Segmentation: Plain and Self raising flour (12 weeks to )
Both types of flour are most likely to be bought in East England and South West.
Source: © dunnhumby 2009
Thighs are the only chicken part to appeal to Pensioners

29. Lifestage Segmentation: Free from range, organic and specialty flour (12 weeks to 15.02.2009)
These types of flour are most likely to be bought by Young families and appeal less to Pensioners
Source: © dunnhumby 2009

30. Lifestyle Segmentation: Free from range, organic and specialty flour (12 weeks to 15.02.2009)
These types of flour are more likely to be bought by Up market shoppers very weak appeal to less-affluent shoppers
Source: © dunnhumby 2009

31. Northern Ireland shoppers are not buying into the Organic range flour,
Regional Segmentation: Free from range, organic and specialty flour (12 weeks to )
Northern Scotland and South West are the counties where these subgroups are the most likely to be bought
Source: © dunnhumby 2009
Northern Ireland shoppers are not buying into the Organic range flour,

32. Areas for potential further research
Analysis
Areas for potential further research

33. Areas for Potential Further Research
This report reveals several areas which might warrant further research:
Would marketing campaigns of ‘Free from’ range products be likely to increase the customer penetration?
Northern Ireland shoppers are not buying into the Organic range flour, it might be interesting to look further this issue as to identify reasons and adapt marketing strategies.
How can the category appeal to other than Pensioners shoppers and encourage cooking from scratch activities.
Central Scotland county under performs for every subgroup, would a focussed awareness campaign appeal to new shoppers?

34. Appendix

35. the dunnhumby data 2yrs of weekly supermarket purchases
1.4 million shoppers
Representative of 40% of UK households
Over 30,000 food products
Segmented by;
Lifestage (young adults, young families, older families, older adults, pensioners)
Lifestyle (Up-market, Mid-Market and Less Affluent shoppers)
Region (13 TV advertising regions)

36. The dunnhumby data: Lifestage Segmentation%
shoppers
Lifestage segment
Age & family
Adults aged 20-39
with no children
Young Adults
16%
Adults aged 40-59
with no children
Older Adults
14%
Adults with all
children under 10
Young families
15%
Adults with one or
more child over 10
Older families
16%
Adults over 60
with no children
Pensioners 9%
Multigenerational
households
Mixed
28%

37. The dunnhumby data: Lifestyle Segmentation%
shoppers
Lifestyle segment
Key Characteristics
time conscious, enjoy luxury products and are willing to experiment
Finer Foods
17%
interested in organic, environmental benefits, low fat/sugar and calorie conscious
Healthy 9%
regard food as fuel, are busy and rely heavily on the microwave
Convenience
22%
look primarily for value and rely on staple foods
Price Sensitive
16%
have broad tastes, favour established brands and are influenced by the needs of children
Mainstream
26%
enjoy the art of cooking but rely on a fixed shopping list so less likely to buy on impulse
Traditional
10%

38. The dunnhumby data: Regional Segmentation
ISBA (TV advertising) regions
North Scotland – STV North (Aberdeen, Dundee)
Central Scotland – STV Central (Glasgow, Edinburgh)
Borders – Border Television
North East – Tyne Tees Television
North West/ Lancashire – Granada Television
Northern Ireland - UTV
Yorkshire – Yorkshire Television
Midlands – Carlton Central
East England – Anglia Television
London – LWT
Wales and the West – HTV Wales & HTV West
South and South East – Meridian Broadcasting
South West – Carlton West Country

39. The dunnhumby data: Regional Segmentation%
shoppers %
shoppers
Region
Region
London
20%
Scotland 9%
Midlands
15%
Yorkshire 8%
Southern England
11%
South West 4%
Lancashire (NW)
10%
North East 3%
East of England 9%
Northern Ireland 3%
Wales & the West 9%

40. Contact Details: HGCA Rachael Arding
For further Information about how your business can obtain more information like this please contact:
Rachael Arding
HGCA Market Development Project Executive
Telephone:

41. Contact Details: VCR² and Kent Business School
For further information about the Centre for Value Chain Research at Kent Business School, please contact:
Melanie Felgate
Centre for Value Chain Research, Kent Business School, University of Kent, Canterbury, CT27PE
Tel:
Website:

42. Contact Details: VCR² and Kent Business School
For further information about the Centre for Value Chain Research at Kent Business School, please contact:
Professor Andrew Fearne
Centre for Food Chain Research, Kent Business School, University of Kent, Canterbury, CT27PE
Tel:
Website:

43. Thank you