1. Is All of this Just WISTful Thinking? Presented by Richard A. Wagoner National Center for Atmospheric Research OFCM 2 nd WIST Symposium December 4 – 6, 2000 Rockville, MD

2. How Will the WIST Initiative Manifest Itself in the Long Run? Lots of effort now to bring advanced weather technology to bear on surface transportation Where’s it all headed? What’s the final balance of federal, state and private sector roles? What are paradigm shifts we should watch for?

3. Fatalities Associated with U.S. Aviation Wind Shear Accidents Wind Shear R&D Pilot Training TDWR * * Final accident report on AA accident at Little Rock, AR not completed. May be wind shear with 10 fatalities. No TDWR system at Little Rock. Source: NTSB, National Research Council Pago JFK, NYNew Orleans DallasCharlotte

4. Advanced Weather Technology is Having a Major Effect on Aviation Operations But… It has taken a long time --- 20 years It takes a lot of $$$ (tens of millions) It takes a lot of major changes in the surface transportation infrastructure –Communications –New sensors –Computer base –New operational decision paradigms And… We’re just getting started Safety EfficiencyCapacity

5. Partners for WIST Implementation Federal Agencies Private Sector Companies State DOTS National Laboratories & Universities (Depts of Meteorology & Transportation Institutes)

6. History of Partnerships in Provision of WIST 15-Yr Period FederalState Private 1955 – 1970 1971 – 1985 1986 – 2000 2001 - 2015

7. Likely Paradigm Shifts During the Next Decade Highly automated forecast process NEW INTEGRATED FORECAST TECHNIQUES  Utilizes multiple model data  Utilizes real-time data  Fully automated  0-10 day forecasts  More accurate than NWS official forecast 93% of the time FridaySaturdaySundayMonday Partly cloudy SunnyShowers Hi 65°F Lo 44°F Hi 67°F Lo 45°F Hi 71°F Lo 47°F Hi 57°F Lo 43°F

8. Likely Paradigm Shifts During the Next Decade Highly automated forecast process More and more emphasis on DSSs that mix weather, climate and other data sources

9. Likely Paradigm Shifts During the Next Decade Highly automated forecast process More and more emphasis on DSSs that mix weather, climate and other data sources National Labs Universities Departments of Meteorology Transportation Institutes Stronger emphasis on WIST-related R&D at the federal level

10. Likely Paradigm Shifts During the Next Decade Highly automated forecast process More and more emphasis on DSSs that mix weather, climate and other data sources Stronger emphasis on WIST-related R&D at the federal level National/regional analyses & forecasts National sensor systems -- satellite -- radar -- ASOS Basic Forecasts down to zone level No road weather specific forecast Climatological data archive LDADS interface for local data Shift toward provision of core weather/climate information at the federal level

11. Likely Paradigm Shifts During the Next Decade Highly automated forecast process More and more emphasis on DSSs that mix weather, climate and other data sources Stronger emphasis on WIST-related R&D at the federal level Shift toward provision of core weather/climate information at the federal level ATWIS Pacific Northwest Consortium / rWeather Utah mesonet Strong shift toward regional consortia to deliver WIST information locally

12. If all of these paradigms materialize, what are the benefits to the players and end users? Federal agencies focus on core capabilities: –Management of core R&D that flows down the food chain for delivery by consortia –Core service delivery that provides basic weather, climate, and road-related data –National infrastructure (sensors, communications, etc.) –Coordinating and establishing national standards –Coordinating WIST user requirements … what they do best

13. If all of these paradigms materialize, what are the benefits to the players and end users? Private sector taps into vibrant market for tailored decision support systems –Provides value-added layer to core technologies –Provides service in most cases rather than systems –Competitive, but niche marketing will prevail –Learning curve associated with consortia concept (public - private partnerships) … what they do best

14. If all of these paradigms materialize, what are the benefits to the players and end users? State DOTS govern the direction and focus of the consortia –Cluster of states in most cases (economies of scale) –Focus for detailed definition of user requirements –Interstate obstacles need to be addressed … what they do best

15. If all of these paradigms materialize, what are the benefits to the players and end users? R&D organizations develop the core technologies needed for successful WIST implementation –National laboratories lead effort –Focus on R&D that is too expensive for private sector or state support –Free and open access to results of R&D –Works with state consortia directly at times –Maximum coupling with universities –Emphasize participation by Transportation Institutes –Universities provide regional focus for mesoscale modeling and addressing local phenomena … what they do best

16. If all of these paradigms materialize, what are the benefits to the players and end users? End users are the real beneficiaries –Tens of thousands of forecasts possible in a region vice several hundred as a result of automation and new technologies –New decision support system focus will provide most tailored information possible –Competitive market will keep service costs modest

17. Richard A. Wagoner NCAR / Research Applications Program 303-497-8404 wagoner@ucar.edu