1. Developing a framework for projecting and tracking the future of biodiversity in Alberta Dr. Erin Bayne Dept. of Biological Sciences University of Alberta

2. Canada and biodiversity In 1992, Canada signed the Convention on Biological Diversity in Rio Dio Janero. Committed us to: 1)conservation of biological diversity 2)sustainable use of biodiversity components 3)fair and equitable sharing of the benefits arising out of the utilization of genetic resources In 2002, we further committed to achieving a significant reduction of the current rate of biodiversity loss by 2010. Led to the Canada Biodiversity Strategy which on Page 4 states Canada will report on the status of biodiversity.

4. Validity of single species indicators Andelman S. J., Fagan W. F. PNAS 2000;97:5954-5959 % species protected K, keystones; ME, most expensive to maintain; MT, most threatened; FR, high age at first reproduction; MV most valuable real estate; HS, habitat specialists; MD, most data available; HG, habitat generalists; BC, big carnivore; R, riparian; C, charismatic; MC, multicategory tally; LL, long-lived; WR, most widespread; 5R, 5 random species; 10R, 10 random species; 20R, 20 random species

5. The Challenge of Monitoring Biodiversity Biodiversity is BIGGER than single species Debate as to how well biodiversity can be represented by single species indicators Small-scale research programs & uncoordinated monitoring cannot be “rolled-up” to describe biodiversity COST-EFFECTIVELY and reliably There are no short-cuts – to know what is “out there” we need a good plan for measuring it empirically

6. Alberta’s solution - ABMI ABMI is a collaborative venture between government, industry, academia, and NGO’s GOAL to coordinate monitoring in Alberta into a cohesive package that covers all of Alberta. – Developed over 15 year period with main push in 1998 – 4 year pilot phase from 2002-2006 – Became “fully” operational in 2007 Goes beyond the traditional one-off projects for EIA’s or local scale monitoring that does not provide the big picture Focus is on monitoring as cost-effectively as possible as many species as possible using a consistent set of protocols and data delivery system.

7. What ABMI Counts Emphasis on “species assemblages” –~2500 species surveyed –REPRESENTS AN ESTIMATED 3% of species in Alberta Assemblages chosen based on ease of sampling, statistical properties, and importance to society Travel Alberta Vascular Plants Mosses Lichens Fungi Birds Mammals Fish Phytoplankton Zooplankton Algae Springtails Mites Aquatic Invertebrates Subset of Arthropods

8. Survey Design Systematic grid with a 20 km spacing  1656 sites Return interval of 5 years 340 on-grid sites annually Will detect changes at minimum of 1%/yr at provincial scale Design is a random sample each year so can detect trends in short-term at provincial level Will take longer period to assess trends in smaller subunits

9. Layout of ABMI Sampling Remote Sensing Field Sampling Species and Habitats

10. Remote Sensing Aquatic Site Field Sampling Species and Habitats Layout of ABMI Sampling

11. How ABMI reports on biodiversity Must haves: Info. Available vs. Info. Overload Simple messaging Intuitive to decision makers Non-judgmental language Inform management – Relevant Be scientifically credible Photo by: S. E. Nielsen TODAY’S PRESENTATION 1.Information Pyramids 2.Standardizing Species Measures 3.Reference Condition 4.Forecasting 5.Reporting to public

12. Level 2 Primary Audience Regional Managers ENGO’s Scientists Policy Makers Politicians Policy Makers Land Managers ENGO’s Public Increasing Data Refinement, Analysis, Synthesis Level 6 Level 5 Level 4 Level 3 Level 1 Scientists Regional Managers INFORMATION PYRAMIDS

13. Single Index Taxonomic Indices General Guild- level Indices Specific Guild-level Indices State of Individual Species Primary Data State of Pileated Woodpecker State of Forest Birds Occurrence of PIWO In Boreal Forest Increasing Data Refinement, Analysis, Synthesis Example of Pileated Woodpecker - PIWO State of Birds That Depend on Deadwood State of Birds 1 2 3 4 5 6 State of Biodiversity Abundance of PIWO In Boreal Forest 1 of 15 species 1 of 100 species 1 of 220 species 8 other Groups Mammals Vascular Plants Mosses Lichens Fungi Invertebrates Algae Fish +

14. SIi is the species intactness index for species i, Oi the abundance of species I under observed footprint levels, Ri the predicted abundance for species i under reference conditions. Oi/Ri when Oi Ri (“increaser” species). A value of 50%, for example, means species is half as abundant as reference, or twice as abundant. Allows comparison across taxa that differ in methods of measurement. Species Indices

15. What should reference be? – Time Zero We are not first to do this. BTO, uses approach for British birds They set starting point to 1970 when certain type of monitoring began Ignores fact system may already be less than intact Gregory et al. 2004

16. What could reference be? - Intactness Expected values for lynx under intact conditions Observed values for lynx in a region Intactness | O - E |

17. Another key difference from British Birds: Indicators can exceed reference Gives impression things are getting better

18. That may not always be true: Invaders & generalists White-tailed deer have far exceeded what is expected for boreal Alberta. If we used standard metrics like richness this would be counted as an increase in biodiversity. IS THIS WHAT WE WANT? 04 Road density (km per km 2 ) Relative Abundance

19. Evaluating effectiveness: Why this index vs. others? Species richness – Number of species Abundance of individuals in guild – Sum of number of individuals regardless of species Diversity indices – Shannon – Simpson Multivariate – Community composition – PCA – Mantel Test

20. Simulation results Traditional diversity indices are unsuitable for monitoring intactness as they don’t change much. Multivariate indices are highly sensitive to detectability.

21. Can we predict the future value of biodiversity in Alberta?

22. What can be done with current data Age Category AspenMerch. Spruce MixedBog/ Fen Pine 0-201675081216 20-40108007347 40-6012363922915 60-80177114243865452 80-10047723914860566 100-120503427082124927 120-14042014283021234 >1401615883305818

23. Detailed studies by U of A

24. Model simulation

26. Bird communities into future

28. Does the index make sense to the general public? Circles are agriculture, squares are energy, triangles are forestry, and diamonds are urban. Open symbols are 1 km2 scale, closed symbols are 25 km2 scale

29. Conclusions By using existing species-habitat relationships we can make clear predictions about biodiversity change now & in future Monitoring provides the most robust test of whether these predictions are accurate. When predictions are not met requires an adaptive monitoring strategy to identify why deviations occur. Fundamental to making monitoring useful.

30. Partners Bighorn Wildlife Technologies Ltd. Mirkwood Ecological Consultants Ltd.

31. Partners