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Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas Gunnar Schwoch DLR Institute of Flight Guidance Braunschweig, Germany ICNS 2012.

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Presentation on theme: "Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas Gunnar Schwoch DLR Institute of Flight Guidance Braunschweig, Germany ICNS 2012."— Presentation transcript:

1 Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas Gunnar Schwoch DLR Institute of Flight Guidance Braunschweig, Germany ICNS 2012 24 th – 26 th April 2012 www.DLR.de Chart 1 ICNS 2012 Gunnar Schwoch Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas 26th April 2012

2 Utopia More efficient procedures than holdings/trombones desired 4D trajectories with direct routing to increase efficiency High density TMAs pose a challenge to prediction and compliance Research starts with Utopia: -Ideal scenario -No uncertainties -Direct routing (two merge points only)  Upper bounds for efficiency gain  What are the challenges? www.DLR.de Chart 2 ICNS 2012 Gunnar Schwoch Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas 26th April 2012

3 Preliminary Condiserations Ground Side Trajectory Predictions Initial trajectory prediction based on aircraft model, atmosphere and weather forecast Example: Airbus A320 trajectory, 67 t TOM, using BADA 3.9 -Flight altitude (FL) -Ground speed -CAS -Mach * 100 www.DLR.de Chart 3 ICNS 2012 Gunnar Schwoch Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas 26th April 2012

4 Preliminary Condiserations Ground Side Trajectory Predictions Error in trajectory prediction requires compensation measures Influence on flight time with errors in specific parameters 200 NM before touchdown (Airbus A320 BADA model): www.DLR.de Chart 4 ICNS 2012 Gunnar Schwoch Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas 26th April 2012 Error in aircraft specific parameter Difference in flight time mass: +/- 5%+3.9s/-4.5s thrust: +/- 10%+0.6s/-0.6s drag: +/- 10%-20.3s/+24.8s

5 Preliminary Condiserations Ground Side Trajectory Predictions Variability of the arrival time (Airbus A320 BADA model) „Snapshot“ of the aircraft‘s possibilities at 200 NM from touchdown Range approx. -105 s (high speed) to +165 s (low speed) www.DLR.de Chart 5 ICNS 2012 Gunnar Schwoch Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas 26th April 2012

6 Scenario Design Based on an actual busy day of real traffic All scenarios contain 1377 identical flights Three runways (one for departures only) Two „families“ of scenarios are created: -Conventional scenario family as a „lower bound“ for efficiency measuring -Utopia scenario family with (nearly) direct routing www.DLR.de Chart 6 ICNS 2012 Gunnar Schwoch Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas 26th April 2012

7 Scenario Design Scenario Family Conventional Based on today‘s departure and approach patterns:  SIDs/STARs  Guidance along trombone (downwind-upwind legs) Variance in length of trombone  Shortest possible  Typical  Longest possible Conflict-free baseline scenario www.DLR.de Chart 7 ICNS 2012 Gunnar Schwoch Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas 26th April 2012

8 Scenario Design Scenario Family Utopia Direct routing with as few waypoints as possible Arrivals: Great circle routes from airport of origin to one of two merge points, Continuous Descent Approach Assignment of merge point depending on location of airport of origin www.DLR.de Chart 8 ICNS 2012 Gunnar Schwoch Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas 26th April 2012

9 Scenario Design Scenario Family Utopia Direct routing with as few waypoints as possible Departures: Small straight segment for take-off, great circle route to destination airport, Continuous Climb Departure No additional requirements www.DLR.de Chart 9 ICNS 2012 Gunnar Schwoch Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas 26th April 2012 departures

10 Scenario Design Scenario Family Utopia Basic Utopia: Runway threshold times as the only time constraint Flights are separated at threshold Fixed sequence since TOD  What kind of disturbances can be compensated?  What measures are necessary? www.DLR.de Chart 10 ICNS 2012 Gunnar Schwoch Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas 26th April 2012

11 Scenario Design Assessment method Indicators are: Average flight time Longer flight times indicate delay Average flight path length Longer flight paths indicate higher fuel consumption Average model fuel consumption Based on BADA 3.9 Number of trajectory planning conflicts -> Safety KPA Simulation tool: TrafficSim (DLR) www.DLR.de Chart 11 ICNS 2012 Gunnar Schwoch Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas 26th April 2012

12 Conflict Detection and Resolution Conflict Detection www.DLR.de Chart 12 ICNS 2012 Gunnar Schwoch Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas 26th April 2012 Definition of a conflict in this scope: Lateral separation of less than 3.0 NM and Vertical separation of  Less than 1000 ft (cruise)  Less than 3000 ft (at least one A/C climbing/descending) Values for experimental purposes only! Gained data: Conflict area (4D positions of aircraft at begin/end of conflict)

13 Conflict Detection and Resolution Conflict Detection www.DLR.de Chart 13 ICNS 2012 Gunnar Schwoch Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas 26th April 2012 Detection by type of conflict: Arrival-arrival conflict/ Departure-departure conflict  Rare in this scenario (sequence building)  If any: Solved by sequence change or slight time modification Arrival-departure conflict  Majority of conflicts as a result of crossing tracks  Different resolution strategies

14 Conflict Detection and Resolution Conflict Resolution www.DLR.de Chart 14 ICNS 2012 Gunnar Schwoch Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas 26th April 2012 Conflict Resolution by constraining departures Climb procedure is interrupted by level segment below conflict area Lateral border: Conflict area Vertical border: Lowest altitude of both aircraft within conflict area

15 Conflict Detection and Resolution Conflict Resolution www.DLR.de Chart 15 ICNS 2012 Gunnar Schwoch Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas 26th April 2012 Conflict Resolution by constraining arrivals Strategy 1 (V1) Arriving aircraft‘s descent profile is modified to stay above the conflict area Conflict area is avoided by interrupting descent and flying a level segment Lateral path stretching manoeuvre becomes necessary as aircraft has passed its TOD  New conflicts at merge points may be induced

16 Conflict Detection and Resolution Conflict Resolution www.DLR.de Chart 16 ICNS 2012 Gunnar Schwoch Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas 26th April 2012 Conflict Resolution by constraining arrivals Strategy 2 (V2) Arriving aircraft‘s descent profile is altered to stay below the conflict area Top of Descent has to be moved No lateral route change  No further conflicts are induced

17 Conflict Detection and Resolution Conflict Resolution www.DLR.de Chart 17 ICNS 2012 Gunnar Schwoch Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas 26th April 2012 Conflict Resolution by constraining arrivals Top of Descent comparison V1 leaves TOD (nearly) intact CDA passes through conflict area V2 moves TOD by approx. 20 NM

18 Conflict Detection and Resolution Conflict Resolution www.DLR.de Chart 18 ICNS 2012 Gunnar Schwoch Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas 26th April 2012 Conflict Resolution by constraining arrivals Top of Descent comparison V1 leaves TOD (nearly) intact CDA passes through conflict area V2 moves TOD by approx. 20 NM

19 Conflict Detection and Resolution Creating the conflict-free scenario Utopia www.DLR.de Chart 19 ICNS 2012 Gunnar Schwoch Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas 26th April 2012 Example scenario Utopia with 1377 flights 76 conflicts detected Automatic conflict resolution applied Kind of Conflict Iteration no. and Resolution actionDep-ArrDep-DepArr-ArrNew conflicts Scenario Utopia (0) Original scenario 6880n/a (1) Departure level segment14705 (2) Arrival TOD modification (V2)1700 (3) Manual sequence change1000 (4) Manual conflict resolution Scenario Utopia deconf 0000

20 Results Utopia vs. Conventional scenario www.DLR.de Chart 20 ICNS 2012 Gunnar Schwoch Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas 26th April 2012 Results for travel times and BADA fuel usage Conflict resolution has a very small influence Most gains in last 40 NM Per Arrival 200 NM to THR40 NM to THR Flight time [s]BADA fuel [kg]Flight time [s]BADA fuel [kg] Utopia21771264809319 Utopia deconf21791265810322 Conv. short253615211059520 Conv. medium264516051167604 Conv. long299018601516844

21 Results Utopia vs. Conventional scenario www.DLR.de Chart 21 ICNS 2012 Gunnar Schwoch Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas 26th April 2012 Results for travel times and BADA fuel usage Conflict resolution has a very small influence Departure gains smaller: Controllability is on the ground Per Departure THR to 40 NMTHR to 200 NM Flight time [s]BADA fuel [kg]Flight time [s]BADA fuel [kg] Utopia545127118783067 Utopia deconf546126418823070 Conv.549128619503155

22 Conclusions www.DLR.de Chart 22 ICNS 2012 Gunnar Schwoch Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas 26th April 2012 Laboratory environment for estimation of costs/requirements established Conflict-free scenario Utopia possible with  Little cost  No lateral re-routing

23 Conclusions www.DLR.de Chart 23 ICNS 2012 Gunnar Schwoch Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas 26th April 2012 Laboratory environment for estimation of costs/requirements established Conflict-free scenario Utopia possible with  Little cost  No lateral re-routing but Precise trajectory prediction necessary: deconfliction starts before TOD Separation criteria are a mix of used and expected values Used model environment:  No wind, standard atmosphere  100% equipped aircraft

24 Future work www.DLR.de Chart 24 ICNS 2012 Gunnar Schwoch Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas 26th April 2012 Situation dependent conflict resolution Variation of separation minima Introduction of weather (forecasted and actual) Inclusion of  Overflights  Traffic to/from surrounding airports

25 Thank you! www.DLR.de Chart 25 ICNS 2012 Gunnar Schwoch Estimating Requirements and Costs of 4D ATM in High Density Terminal Areas 26th April 2012 Questions?

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