1. Preparing a 21 st Century Workforce The Role of CTE James R. Stone III Director National Research Center for CTE james.stone@louisville.edu

2. Today’s Agenda A context for the discussion –Workforce realities –Education reform realities Two CTE based strategies

4. The work reported herein was supported under the National Dissemination for Career and Technical Education, PR/Award (No. VO51A990004) and /or under the National Research Center for Career and Technical Education, PR/Award (No. VO51A990006) as administered by the Office of Vocational and Adult Education, U. S. Department of Education. However, the contents do not necessarily represent the positions or policies of the Office of Vocational and Adult Education or the U. S. Department of Education, and you should not assume endorsement by the Federal Government. Disclaimer:

5. What does it take to obtain good jobs (Myth or Reality)? “…regardless if students go on to college or into the workforce after graduation, they still need the same knowledge and skills, particularly in English and mathematics. At a minimum, high school course requirements need to cover four years of rigorous English and four years of math…” (American Diploma Project)

6. What the data show… 94% of workers reported using math on the job, but, only 1 –22% reported math “higher” than basic –19% reported using “Algebra 1” –9% reported using “Algebra 2” Among upper level white collar workers 1 –30% reported using math up to Algebra 1 –14% reported using math up to Algebra 2 Less than 5% of workers make extensive use of Algebra 2, Trigonometry, Calculus, or Geometry on the job 2 1.M. J. Handel survey of 2300 employees cited in “What Kind of Math Matters” Education Week, June 12 2007 2.Carnevale & Desrochers cited in “What Kind of Math Matters” Education Week, June 12 2007

7. The Fallacy of Composition: What is true for the individual will also be true for the large group or society as a whole. (Cappelli, 2008)

8. The Problem: 2 Perspectives …to right these workplace problems, policy makers are looking in the wrong direction…paying attention to skills workers really need to succeed, not on an assumed set of skills that may not be so critical after all... Robert Lerman (2008) “…the unfortunate tendency has been for educators to assume that the changing economy simply requires more education, resulting in the misguided belief that all students should attend college...The result has been a well-meaning but misguided college-for-all attitude among educators and students. (Rosenbaum, 2002)

9. Jobs & Education: A Growing Mismatch (1)Current Population Survey (2000) (2)Bureau of Labor Statistics (2002) This would (and some argue has) lower the price of an educated worker (Cappelli, 2008) Or, downward occupational mobility

10. More Rhetoric… By 2015 [the country needs to] double the number of bachelor’s degrees awarded annually to U.S. students in science, math, and engineering. (National Summit on Competitiveness 2005) High school students in the U.S. perform well below those in other industrialized nations in the fields of mathematics and science … [and thus we need to make] STEM education a national priority. (Council on Competitiveness 2004).

11. Based on Urban Myths India & China are producing more engineers than U.S. US=222,000; India=215,000; China=352,000* We are not graduating enough engineers S&E wages have actually declined in real terms and unemployment rates have increased** * Duke University Study, 2006; **Rand, 2006;

12. What the data show… S&E occupations make up only about one-twentieth of all workers The education system produces qualified graduates far in excess of demand-Each year there are more than three times as many S&E four-year college graduates as S&E job openings Urban Institute, 2007. 435,000 U.S. citizens and permanent residents a year graduated with bachelor's, master's, and doctoral degrees in science and engineering... there were about 150,000 jobs added annually to the science and engineering workforce. http://www.businessweek.com/print/smallbiz/content/oct2007/sb20071025_827398.htm

13. The Real Labor Opportunity Middle Skill Occupations

14. Fastest Growing Jobs - 2016

15. Real employment opportunities: 45% growth in Middle Skill Occupations (164 Million Workers by 2016)

16. Labor Market Skill Distribution - 2016

17. Jobs and Education: What is Required Most Significant Source of Education and Training Total Jobs 2016 (thousands) Total Job Change 2006-2016 % of New Job Growth 2006- 2016 Percentage of Total Jobs in 2016 First professional degree 2,2023561.91.3 Doctoral degree2,5355943.11.5 Master’s degree2,5524072.21.6 Bachelor’s or higher +7,5821,0815.74.6 Bachelor’s degree20,3783,33517.612.4 Associate degree6,7701,3617.24.1 PS vocational award9,3161,3987.45.7 Work related occupation12,1191,0615.67.4 Long-term OJT11,9809545.07.3 Moderate-term OJT31,4212,46413.019.1 Short-term OJT57,6995,91631.335.1 Total164,55418,927100.0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2006. http://www.bls.gov/oes/home.htm

18. Middle Skill Occupations (B.A./B.S. NOT Required) Occupation Air Traffic Controller Storage and distribution manager Transportation manager Non-retail sales manager Forest fire fighting/prevention supervisor Municipal fire fighting/prevention supervisor Real estate broker Elevator installers and repairer Dental hygienist Immigration and Customs inspector Commercial pilot Salary 102,300 66,600 59,300 58,920 58,902 58,720 58,710 58,350 53,990 53,870 Farr, M. & Shatkin, L. (2006) The 300 Best Jobs That Don't Require a Four-Year Degree. (US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics)

19. What Employers Really Need

20. What are Employers not Getting?

21. What are the real school problems? A high and rising drop out rate Students who graduate are lacking in basic math and science skills Most students think they are going to college but do not prepare for it or any other possible future

22. Getting kids ready for success requires a focus on: Engagement – attending school and completing (graduating) high school Achievement – academic (and technical) course taking; grades, test scores Transition – to postsecondary education without the need for remediation; and to the workplace.

23. % of 9 th Graders who complete High School 68% Source: One-Third of a Nation (ETS, 2005) Utah? 81%

24. When do they leave? 9 th grade 10 th grade 11 th grade 12 th grade 5 th year Plank, 2005

25. 81% of dropouts said “real world learning” may have influenced them to stay in school Bridgeland, et al - Gates Foundation Report, 2005

26. CTE and School Engagement Recent NRC Research

27. The Assumption: To be college and work ready, students need to complete a rigorous sequence of courses: In math: –Four courses –Content equivalent to Algebra I and II, Geometry, and a fourth course such as Statistics or Pre- calculus In English: –Four courses –Content equivalent to four years of grade- level English or higher (i.e., honors or AP English)

28. What has the 4x4 Achieved (NAEP Scores 17 Year Olds) Source: NAEP 2004 Trends in Academic Progress. Note: Long-Term Trends NAEP 12.9 Academic Credits 19 Academic Credits

29. NAEP Science Scores 17 Year Olds 1.5 Science Credits 2.1 Science Credits 3.2 Science Credits

30. HS Achievement In Math Source: NAEP 2004 Trends in Academic Progress and NAEP 1999 Trends in Academic Progress. Note: Long-Term Trends NAEP 1.7 Math Credits 3.6 math credits 2.4 Math Credits

31. One approach Math-in-CTE: An “evidenced based approach” to improving academic performance of CTE students

32. Focus of the Study Does enhancing the CTE curriculum with math increase math skills of CTE students? Can we infuse enough math into CTE curricula to meaningfully enhance the academic skills of CTE participants (Perkins IV Core Indicator) Without reducing technical skill development What works?

33. Key Features Random assignment of teachers to experimental or control condition Five simultaneous study replications Three measures of math skills (applied, traditional, college placement) Focus of the experimental intervention was naturally occurring math (embedded in curriculum) A model of Curriculum Integration A new model for Professional Development

34. National Research Center AutoTech Experimental Control BusEd Experimental Control IT Experimental Control Ag P&T Experimental Control Health Experimental Control Sample 2004-05:69 Experimental CTE/Math teams and 80 Control CTE Teachers Total sample: 3,000 students* 5 Simultaneous Replications

35. Study Design: Participants Participants Experimental CTE teacher Math teacher Control CTE teacher Primary Role Implement the math enhancements Provide support for the CTE teacher Teach their regular curriculum (health, auto tech, ag, business/mkt, IT)

36. Measuring Math & Technical Skill Achievement Global math assessments Technical skill or occupational knowledge assessment General, grade level tests (Terra Nova, AccuPlacer, WorkKeys) NOCTI, AYES, MarkED

37. The Experimental Treatment Professional Development The Pedagogy

38. Professional Development CTE-Math Teacher Teams; occupational focus Curriculum mapping Scope and Sequence “Lesson Plan” Development On going collaboration CTE and math teachers

39. Curriculum Maps Begin with CTE Content Create “map” for the school year Align map with planned curriculum for the year (scope & sequence)

40. Auto Tech – Electrical (partial) Lesson TopicCTE ConceptsMath Concepts NCTM Standards Voltage, Current, Resistance and Ohm’s Law Whole numbers; decimals and fractions (adding, subtracting, multiplying and dividing); solving linear equations; ratio proportion; system of equations; metric to metric conversions; metric prefixes; reading and writing percents N8, N9, A2, M0, M1, P15, P16 Series and Parallel Circuits Decimals and fractions (adding, subtracting, multiplying and dividing); solving linear equations; ratio proportion; system of equations; metric to metric conversions; substituting data into formulas; working with reciprocals N8, N9, A7, A8, A9, A11, P2, P15 Electrical Components Solving linear equations; percents; temperature; comparing numbers; linear measurement N8, N9, A2, M0, M1, P2, P15

41. Health Occupations (partial) Health Standards Identification Health SkillMathematics Content Standards State Content Standard Analyze methods for the control of disease. Prognosis and diagnosis Body planes Range of motion Pharmacy calculations (for pharmacy techs Solve linear equations Read and interpret graphs and charts Problem solving involving statistical data Ratio and Proportion 1.2 Students describe the relationships among variables, predict what will happen to one variable as another variable is changed, analyze natural variation and sources of variability to compare patterns of change. Analyze changes in body systems as they relate to disease, disorder and wellness Cultures and sensitivity Lab techniques Blood sugar and user failure versus accurate sample collection C & S of wounds, collection contamination process and outcome Calculate time, temperature, mass measurement and compare to known standards Interpretation of measurement results Calculate accurate measurement in both metric and English units 2.3 Students compare attributes of two objects or of one object with a standard (unit) and analyze situations to determine what measurement(s) should be made and to what level of precision

42. What we tested: The Seven Elements Pedagogy 1.Introduce the CTE lesson 2.Assess students’ math awareness 3.Work through the embedded example 4.Work through related, contextual examples 5.Work through traditional math examples 6.Students demonstrate understanding 7.Formal assessment

43. Perkins IV: Required Activity Professional Development –Cannot be “1-day or short-term” –Currency –Integration/rigor –Meet levels of performance –Coordinated with title II of ESEA

45. Analysis C X Post Test Spring Terra Nova Accuplacer WorkKeys Skills Tests Difference in Math Achievement Pre Test Fall Terra Nova

46. What we found: All CTEx vs All CTEc Post test % correct controlling for pre-test

47. 50th percentile 71st C Group 050th100th X Group Magnitude of Treatment Effect – Effect Size Terra Nova the average percentile standing of the average treated (or experimental) participant relative to the average untreated (or control) participant Accuplacer 67th Carnegie Learning Corporation Cognitive Tutor Algebra I d=.22

48. Does Enhancing Math in CTE Affect Technical Skill Development? NO!

49. What we found: Time invested in Math Enhancements Average of 18.55 hours across all sites devoted to math enhanced lessons (not just math but math in the context of CTE) Assume a 180 days in a school year; one hour per class per day Average CTE class time investment = 10.3%

50. Power of the New Professional Development Model Old Model PD New Model PD Total Surprise!

51. Replicating the Math-in-CTE Model: Core Principles A.Develop and sustain a community of practice B.Begin with the CTE curriculum and not with the math curriculum C.Understand math as essential workplace skill D.Maximize the math in CTE curricula E.CTE teachers are teachers of “math-in-CTE” NOT math teachers

52. Final thoughts: Math-in-CTE A powerful, evidence based strategy for improving math skills of students; A way but not THE way to help high school students master math (other approaches – NY BOCES) Not a substitute for traditional math courses Lab for mastering what many students learn but don’t understand Will not fix all your math problems

53. Perkins IV – Programs of Study – Another Strategy Include... Coherent and rigorous content Aligned with challenging academic standards and relevant career and technical content; in a coordinated, non-duplicative progression of courses that align secondary education with postsecondary education... to adequately prepare students to succeed in postsecondary education; Lead to an industry-recognized credential or certificate at the postsecondary level, or an associate or baccalaureate degree.

54. CTE: What do we know? CTE keeps kids in school CTE helps kids focus their PS education plans CTE is an economic benefit to participants and to states CTE-based structures can affect achievement and transition of youth to college and work, but Can CTE help students master academics?

55. For more: James.Stone@Louisville.edu www.nccte.org