1. What if? Agro-fuel scenario Case of fallow land/set aside 1990-2000 at risk of re-intensification Version 0.01 _ zoom on Czech Republic What if? modelling with CLC/LEAC/CORILIS Attempt at mapping areas prone to agriculture intensification

2. Corilis is the computation in a regular grid of CLC values in and in the neighbourhood of each cell (in the application: radius of 5km) Ref.: EEA 2006, Land accounts for Europe 1990-2000 B A Areas prone to agriculture intensification driven by the agro-fuel demand: assumptions minimum of 20% of agriculture potential (~UAA)  mountains, urban areas, large forests… are excluded. higher potential for conversion when the 2 agriculture types are balanced (very intensive areas will not intensify any more, very extensive areas result probably from relief and climate conditions which will restrict intensification) For each grid cell of 1km², the formula is therefore: Conversion Potential = [Potential (A-B)] 2 * Potential (A+B), when Potential (A+B) > 20. Value normalised to 0 to 100

3. Case of fallow land/set aside 1990-2000 at risk of re- intensification, 1st test maps: Areas prone to intensification (in GREY) AND fallow land set aside mapped from land cover flow 1990-2000 LEAC lcf41 (in GREEN). Fallow land/set aside at risk of re-intensification are in RED. (RED = GREY+GREEN) At this stage, this is a distribution map, not yet a statistical quantification

4. Areas prone to intensification (in GREY) AND fallow land set aside mapped from land cover flow 1990-2000 LEAC lcf41 (in GREEN).

5. Fallow land/set aside at risk of re-intensification are in RED. (RED = GREY+GREEN)

6. Potential impact on Natura2000 sites

7. The European view