1. The Nexus between Parliaments, Poverty and Conflict Prevention Mitchell O’Brien Governance Specialist Team Lead – Parliament Program World Bank Institute mobrien@worldbank.org

2. Outline 1.WBI/ CPA Knowledge Capture Process 2.Outcomes of research – the Nexus between Parliaments, Poverty and Conflict Prevention 3.Delegations sharing points of friction/ issues of discord

3. WBI/CPA Knowledge Capture Process Stud y Group on the Role of Parliaments in Conflict-Affected Countries – Sri Lanka 2004 Conference on Parliaments and Conflict - Wilton Park 2005 Parliaments as Peacebuilders in Conflict- Affected Countries – 2008 Conference on Conflict Prevention - Royal Rhodes 2008/9 Workshop on the Role of the Parliaments in Conflict-Affected Countries – Vienna 2010

4. Trends in Conflict Transformation in the nature of conflict - Type and rate of conflict changing Traditional inter-state (Kashmir) and ethno-national conflicts (Sri Lanka) are becoming rarer Nontraditional intrastate conflicts continue to wage with potential for spillover into neighbouring countries (Afghanistan/ Pakistan) Recent trends show a diffusion and fragmentation of violence perpetuated by a number of actors (what constitutes the security sector?) targeting non combatants and citizens (West Africa/ Kenya?/ Uganda?) This makes it difficult for the international community to intervene and places greater emphasis on national institutions t o act

5. Structural Conditions Conducive to Conflict There is a correlative relationship between poverty and conflict Nations with a high levels of dependence on commodity exports are at a higher risk of experiencing conflict Meanwhile countries with higher levels of secondary schooling and economic growth have reduced rates of conflict

6. How do the figures add up? Low-income countries with a per-capita income of less than US$2,000 experienced conflict approximately one in every five years The figure drops to one in every eight years once income increases to between US$2,000 - $4,000 Drops to one in every 33 years when per capita income is in excess of US$4,000 This is a correlative relationship rather than causal

7. Conflict Trap A country with these conditions is statistically more prone to conflict than a country without these structural conditions The impact on economy lingers beyond well beyond the cessation of conflict, making a country more prone to a reversion to conflict – this is known as the conflict trap

8. Democracy and Conflict Democracies generally operate under constraints that make them more peaceful in their relations with other democracies and rarely, if ever, go to war against one another Does not mean that they do not go to war against non- democratic states (US-Iraq war) Studies show that irrespective of political systems that have waged wars, only 18 percent of wars between 1816 and 1990 have been instigated by democracies Therefore, as its rarer for democracies to wage war and instigate wars we should be promoting democratic institutions such as parliaments Countries in transition a more conflict prone, though, so special assistance should be provided

9. Democracy and Development Hard to find a causal relationship Studies now compare economic performance between autocracies and low-income democracies – no discernable difference in per capita growth (distorting effect of the Asian Tigers) However, if you look at development in terms of human development rather than economic development there is a marked difference People in democratic nations consistently over the last four decades, lived longer, healthier, and more productive lives. Second schooling enrollment nearly twice as high (factor in reducing conflict), higher agricultural yields, and childhood mortality rates are almost half Interestingly, while low-income democracies outperform autocracies on social indicators, expenditure in this area is relatively equal This resulted in the Abuja Declaration (CHOGM 2003) confirming the link between democracy and development

10. Parliaments as the Cornerstone Understanding the correlative relationship between poverty and conflict and democracy and development highlights the need for strong democratic institutions such as parliaments Parliaments are the most representative democratic institutions Parliaments can seek to prevent conflict by addressing the root causes of conflict and addressing the structural conditions (poverty) that permit underlying tensions to escalate to violent conflict