1. Future trends in natural hazard losses Dave Petley, Durham University 6 th April 2013 Email: d.n.petley@durham.ac.uk Twitter: @davepetley Blog: http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/

2. Context Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. Niels Bohr The future, according to some scientists, will be exactly like the past, only far more expensive. John Sladek

3. IPCC view of role of physical and social issues in hydrometeorological disasters x of x Version 3.0Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved.

4. Number of natural hazard events and number of fatalities (EM-DAT data) x of x Version 3.0Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Events Flooding in China Fatalities

5. Number of natural hazard events and number of fatalities (EM-DAT data) x of x Version 3.0Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Events Fatalities Flooding in China

6. Number of natural hazard events and number of fatalities (EM-DAT data) x of x Version 3.0Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Events Fatalities

7. Trends in total numbers are driven by hydrometeorological events x of x Version 3.0Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Flood Total Storm

8. In the last decade Tropical cyclone energy has been unusually low x of x Version 3.0Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Ryan Maue: http://policlimate.com/tropical/

9. x of x Version 3.0Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved.

10. Or: international strategies? x of x Version 3.0Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved.

11. Earthquakes and volcanoes x of x Version 3.0Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved.

12. Simkin and Siebert (1994): number of active volcanoes Reported number of active volcanoes per year 80 60 40 20 0 1800 1850 1900 1950 1990 Year WW1 WW2

13. USGS data on occurrence of large earthquakes (M≥6.5) x of x Version 3.0Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved.

14. USGS data on occurrence of large earthquakes (M≥6.5) x of x Version 3.0Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved.

15. Future of hydro-meteorological hazards – IPCC SREX report x of x Version 3.0Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Mean temperature (or precipitation etc) might rise Weather may become more variable Change in shape – shift towards higher extremes

16. x of x Version 3.0Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Exposure to Tropical cyclones Exposure to Floods IPCC SREX report

17. Future earthquake hazard – a case study from Nepal x of x Version 3.0Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved.

19. Kathmandu destroyed in an earthquake in 1934 ?20,000 deaths x of x Version 3.0Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved.

20. x of x Version 3.0Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved.

21. Himalayan Seismic gaps (Roger Bilham) x of x Version 3.0Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved.

22. Himalayan earthquake potential (Roger Bilham) x of x Version 3.0Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved.

23. Scenario – rupture of 1505 fault section x of x Version 3.0Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved.

24. Geology map of Nepal x of x Version 3.0Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Dahal 2013

25. Topographic map of Nepal x of x Version 3.0Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. NPCS 2013

26. Population density map of Nepal x of x Version 3.0Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. NPCS 2013

27. Likely pattern of shaking – Wenchuan data x of x Version 3.0Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Xiao Yun Li Peak ground acceleration (gals)

28. x of x Version 3.0Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Peak ground acceleration (gals) Likely pattern of shaking – Wenchuan data Xiao Yun Li

29. x of x Version 3.0Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Peak ground acceleration (gals) Likely pattern of shaking – Wenchuan data Xiao Yun Li 50 km = 200 gal 100 km = 100 gal 10 km = 550 gal

30. Population density map of Nepal x of x Version 3.0Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. NPCS 2013 Zone of >0.2 g shaking

31. Population density map of Nepal x of x Version 3.0Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. NPCS 2013 Zone of >0.2 g shaking

32. Impacts x of x Version 3.0Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Kathmandu – even a M=7.0 event is expected to kill 100,000 people in the city

33. x of x Version 3.0Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved.

34. Hospitals, schools and the airport x of x Version 3.0Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved.

35. Road network x of x Version 3.0Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved.

36. Kathmandu access roads are very landslide prone x of x Version 3.0Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved.

37. Nepal earthquake scenario Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. M=8 earthquake affects Western Nepal >100,000 people killed in Kathmandu Valley (probably much higher) Most of 2.5 million people rendered homeless All utilities (water, power, communications) lost Kathmandu airport runway inoperable Kathmandu valley access roads completely blocked by landslides Current thinking is that it will be three weeks before communication lines are reopened All access via north India, which will also have been profoundly affected Very high levels of loss in rural areas Communications lines exceptionally difficult in those regions i.e. Haiti, but much worse

38. The future: threatened cities from earthquakes Map: University of Colorado and NYT

39. x of x Version 3.0Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved.

40. Arctic sea ice death spiral: https://sites.google.com/site/pettitclimategraphs/pettit-climate-graphs

41. Future patterns of loss x of x Version 3.0Copyright © AQA and its licensors. All rights reserved. Greater economic costs are inevitable – more assets to destroy Hazardous events: –Hydrometeorological disasters will probably increase as extremes become more common But some may decrease in some areas (e.g. tropical cyclones?) –No effective change in rate of tectonic hazards Patterns of vulnerability will change –Greater economic assets provide resilience –But a larger urban population changes patterns of risk –Increased pressures from climate change? We should anticipate the million fatality or trillion dollar loss event

42. David Petley Email: d.n.petley@durham.ac.uk Twitter: @davepetley Blog: http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/