1. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs.unu.edu "Advancing Knowledge for Human Security and Development“ United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) Flood Conference – ICLR, May 6-8, 2008, Toronto, Canada Vulnerability Assessment to Floods at the Local Level Dr.-Ing. Jörn Birkmann, Krings, S. and Renaud, F.

2. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs.unu.edu Content 1.Definition of Vulnerability 2.Conceptual Framework 3.Assessment Process - Questionnaire 4.Selected Results 5.Critical Infrastructure Vulnerability 6.Conclusions

3. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs.unu.edu Vulnerability Definitions “... a human condition or process resulting from physical, social, economic, and environmental factors which determine the likelihood and scale of damage from the impact of a given hazard“ (UNDP, 2004) “... the likelihood of injury, death, loss, disruption of livelihood or other harm in an extreme event, and/or unusual difficulties in recovering from such effects“ (Wisner, 2002)

4. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs.unu.edu Vulnerability to Floods in Germany Exposure Coping Capacity Vulnerability

5. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs.unu.edu The BBC-Framework Source: Bogardi/Birkmann (2004) and Cardona (1999/2001)

6. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs.unu.edu Sub-National Vulnerability Index 34 demographic variables e.g. age, education, income Map shows general vulnerability Data: Federal statistical office 2007, BKG 2007

7. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs.unu.edu Methodology & Focus Local Level

8. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs.unu.edu Overview Methodology HH Survey METHOD - Household Survey -Standardized interview (closed & open questions) -Quantitative assessment GOAL - generation of new indicators: a)Exposure and knowledge b)Susceptibility c)Coping Capacity SAMPLE - 500 HH per city (selection through city) -Consideration of exposure (HQ 100, HQ 500) & -Socio-economic differences METHOD - Household Survey -Standardized interview (closed & open questions) -Quantitative assessment GOAL - generation of new indicators: a)Exposure and knowledge b)Susceptibility c)Coping Capacity SAMPLE - 500 HH per city (selection through city) -Consideration of exposure (HQ 100, HQ 500) & -Socio-economic differences

9. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs.unu.edu Case Study Selection in Cologne [jb1]

10. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs.unu.edu Selected Results Cologne

11. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs.unu.edu Risk Perception: Natural Hazards

12. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs.unu.edu Do you know whether you live in a flood prone area? Did you get or have you gathered information regarding floods?

13. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs.unu.edu Exposure and Flood Information NO, I did not get any information, nor I gathered information about flooding YES, I requested information about floods when I bought/rented house/flat YES, I got information about flooding when I settled in the area Exposure No answer regarding exposure I am not living in flood prone area I am living in a flood prone area

14. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs.unu.edu Coping Capacity

15. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs.unu.edu Susceptibility & Coping Capacity Would you be able to evacuate without external help?

16. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs.unu.edu Where would you go? Age groups0-2930-5960-7980-99 Friends61,445,0727,1620,83 Relatives31,543,5645,6766,66 Hotel / Pension1,753,0310,498,33 City or Emergency Accommodation 1,754,927,40- Other-1,516,17- Don‘t know3,50,751,854,16 No answer-1,131,23-

17. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs.unu.edu Coping Capacity: Evacuation Capability

18. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs.unu.edu Financial Coping Capacity correlation coefficient: 0,529 Income classes: 1) under 500€, 2) 500 to 1000€, 3) 1000 to 1500€, …(…), 13) 6000 € and more % of HHwith anelementaryriskinsurance

19. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs.unu.edu … Vulnerability Hotspots in Cologne Not the city centre, but the northern and southern parts are highly vulnerable. Paticularly areas around Rodenkirchen and Weiss – high concentraton of elderly and low flood protection

20. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs.unu.edu VA Critical Infrastructures

21. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs.unu.edu “Critical infrastructures consist of those physical and information technology facilities, networks, services and assets which, if disrupted or destroyed, would have a serious impact on the health, safety, security or economic well-being of citizens (…). Critical infrastructures extend across many sectors of the economy, including banking and finance, transport and distribution, energy, utilities, health, food supply and communications, as well as key government services.” EC 2004 Definition

22. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs.unu.edu VA Critical Infrastructure: Multi-Layer Society depends on Critical Infrastructures Critical Infrastructure Sector Critical Infrastructure Sector Critical Infrastructure Sector … … …… Infrastructure ………… Component Illustration: Susanne Krings, UNU-EHS following the German Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance (BBK), Source: BBK, Newsletter 372006 …… ……

23. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs.unu.edu Cologne Exposure of Critical Infrastructures Example: Electricity supply system Powerplant Transfomer station High voltage power line Rhine HQ 100 HQ 500 Districts Source: UNU-EHS; Data source: BKG (Basis DLM) and Cologne City Administration

24. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs.unu.edu data source: http://upload.wikimedia.or g/ wikipedia/de/e/ed/Stromv ersorgung.png Network and Interdependencies

25. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs.unu.edu Source: Verband Schweizerischer Elektrizitätsunternehmen (2008): Netzebenen. http://www.poweron.ch/de/stromnetz/netzebe nen_content---1-1224.html (25.2.2008) Different Designs of Electricity Systems The first design is highly vulnerable, as failures are likely to affect a large number households. The second design is less vulnerable as in case of a failure the area suffering a blackout is likely to be very small.

26. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs.unu.edu Ongoing Research: Objects & Structure Society depends on Critical Infrastructures Critical Infrastructure Sector Critical Infrastructure Sector Critical Infrastructure Sector … … …… Infrastructure ………… Component …… …… Operationalisation and aggregation of data collected on the different levels of citical infrastructures as well as the finalisation of the methodology are currently being worked on at UNU-EHS

27. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs.unu.edu 1.Vulnerability assessment at the local level can include more easily new methods and additional data collection. 2.Measuring susceptibility and coping capacity is crucial. 3.The case study of Cologne shows that people who are saying we live in a flood prone area have been less active in gathering flood information data when they choose their place of living. 4.Human vulnerability implies other hot-spots than financial vulnerability (city centre versus living areas). 5.VA of critical infrastructure is a key subject, but data gathering is a challenge. Conclusion

28. United Nations University Institute for Environment & Human Security Dr.-Ing. Birkmann UNU-EHS birkmann@ehs.unu.edu More Information: www.ehs.unu.edu birkmann@ehs.unu.edu Thank You for Your Attention!