1. Stunning Progress, Hidden Problems: The Dramatic Decline of Concentrated Poverty in the 1990s Paul A. Jargowsky University of Texas at Dallas May 19, 2003

2. The Spatial Dimension of Poverty Poverty at individual/family level vs. geographical distribution of poverty High-poverty neighborhoods –Spill over to schools –Negative influences, lack of positive role models –Networks and information flows Public policy issues –Neighborhood effects, esp. kids –Alienation from mainstream of society

3. Methodology Census “long form” data from 1990 and 2000 Census tracts are proxies for neighborhoods Family poverty measured using federal poverty rate A high-poverty neighborhood is a census tract with a poverty rate of 40% or higher Metropolitan areas are the key unit of analysis

4. The 1970 to 1990 Story (Previous Research) Huge increases in size of ghettos and barrios –% of poor in neighborhoods with poverty rate of 40% or more –Census tracts as proxies for neighborhoods Economy has huge effect, but it was flat to positive over 1970 to 1990 Racial segregation also matters, but improving over this time period. There must be something else....

5. Suburban Development Outer ring suburbs growing rapidly Highest income persons move out, middle income fill in behind. Process filters down, with poor left behind in central cities. Suburbs and slums are the most visible manifestations of a development dynamic that favors rapid, highly-exclusionary patterns of housing development.

6. What about 2000 Census? Strong economy, peaked in April 2000 (so the 2000 Census is already out of date!) Policies to deconcentrate poverty (Hope VI, Section 8, etc., maybe even welfare reform) Expected declines in percentage of poor living in high-poverty neighborhoods. Didn’t expect much real change in the number of census tracts above 40% poverty Expected some gentrification, but expected it would it be “islands of renewal in seas of decay” Sometimes it’s good to be wrong!

7. Poverty Became Less Concentrated Nationwide, the number of high-poverty neighborhoods declined by 27 percent, from 3,417 in 1990 to 2,510 in 2000 (out of about 60,000 total neighborhoods). The population of high-poverty areas declined by 24 percent, from 10.4 million to 7.9 million.

9. Most Residents of High-Poverty Areas are Members of Minority Groups

11. Percentage Change in Population of High- Poverty Neighborhoods by State, 1990-2000 > 50% Decrease 25% to 50% Decrease 0% to 25% Decrease 0% to 25% Increase 25% to 50% Increase > 50% Increase Change, 1990-2000

12. The Advance and Retreat of Detroit’s High-Poverty Ghetto The animation on the following page shows the high- poverty zone in Detroit from 1970 to 2000. Red tones indicate high-poverty areas – census tracts with poverty rates above 40 percent. Green tones are low or moderate poverty areas. After decades of increases, Detroit had a dramatic reduction in the size and population of the high poverty area.

13. Poverty Level: Detroit Neighborhoods 1970-2000 1970

14. Poverty Level: Detroit Neighborhoods 1970-2000 1980

15. Poverty Level: Detroit Neighborhoods 1970-2000 1990

16. Poverty Level: Detroit Neighborhoods 1970-2000 2000

17. 1970 Poverty Level: Milwaukee Neighborhoods 1970-2000

18. Poverty Level: Milwaukee Neighborhoods 1970-2000 1980

19. Poverty Level: Milwaukee Neighborhoods 1970-2000 1990

20. Poverty Level: Milwaukee Neighborhoods 1970-2000 2000

21. Los Angeles: a different story 1990 2000Chg Tracts 56137 +81 Concentration White 4.3 5.1 +0.8 Black17.321.3 +4.1 Hispanic 9.116.9 +7.8 1990 2000

22. Washington,D. C. 1990

23. Washington,D. C. 2000

24. The Concentration of Poverty Until now, looking at total population of high-poverty neighborhoods Much concern about specific effects of concentration on the poor Concentration of poverty defined as the percent of the total poor in an area that resides in high-poverty neighborhoods

26. “Suburbs” had the Smallest Improvements 19902000Change Black Poor Central Cities39.625.9-11.8 Suburbs10.6 5.7 -4.9 Non-Metro20.7 9.9-10.8 Hispanic Poor Central Cities27.213.8 -7.4 Suburbs10.6 8.0 -2.6 Non-Metro18.3 7.0-11.3

27. Returning to Detroit MSA, Poverty in 2000

28. Change in Poverty Rates, 1990 to 2000, Detroit MSA

29. Change in Poverty Rates Chicago, 1990-2000

30. St. Louis 1970-19901990-2000 Change in Poverty Rates

31. Cleveland 1970-19901990-2000 Change in Poverty Rates

32. Dallas 1970-19901990-2000 Change in Poverty Rates

33. Conclusions A strong economy with low unemployment is incredibly powerful. Both the size and population of high-poverty neighborhoods have declined substantially in most of the country. More work needs to be done to assess the relative contribution of the economy, public policies, gentrification, and other factors. Central cities have the infrastructure and amenities to withstand and even defeat the sprawl/blight cycle – at least when the economy is strong and policies are supportive. The inner-ring of suburbs continue to decline, so rapid exclusionary forms of suburban development are still a concern.

34. Interactive Web Site: www.urbanpoverty.net www.urbanpoverty.net Makes creation of poverty and demographic maps easy for the general public.