1. IIASA Projections of SO 2, NO x, NH 3 and VOC Emissions in East Asia up to 2030 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Z. Klimont, J. Cofala, W. Schöpp, M. Amann (IIASA) D. Streets (Argonne Nat. Lab., USA) Y. Ichikawa, S. Fujita (CRIEPI, Japan)

2. IIASA Spatial and temporal resolution Japan - Prefectures aggregated into six regions China - Provinces and megacities (incl. Hong-Kong) Republic of Korea - provinces aggregated into four regions Taiwan, ROC; Mongolia; DPR of Korea - whole country Russia - six Southern Siberian provinces ‘Oblast’ Annual emissions –historical years 1990 and 1995 –projections for 2000, 2010 and 2030

3. IIASA Spatial distribution of SO 2 emissions (kt SO 2 /grid) 19952030 (CLE)

4. IIASA Activity rates: Traffic Total fuel consumption based on the vehicle ownership and mileage forecasts (also verified against national and international (ERI-China, IEA) statistics) Mode/fuel split derived from available statistical data and experts’ judgment Newly developed forecast takes into account differences in future regional developments

5. IIASA Emissions of NO x in East Asia (million tons NO x )

6. IIASA Spatial distribution of NO x emissions (kt NO x /grid) 1995 2030 (CLE)

7. IIASA Structure of VOC emissions in 1995 for selected countries

8. IIASA Projections of activity rates –Distribution, processing and combustion of fuels linked to energy projections in RAINS –Industry (chemical, food and drink, wood preservation, other industrial solvent use): Linked to changes in national and sectoral GDP –Domestic solvent use (incl. paint), dry cleaning: Related to population, GDP forecasts, changing consumption patterns –Industrial paint use: Linked to vehicle manufacturing and ownership forecasts, national and industrial GDP

9. IIASA Emissions of VOC in East Asia (Mt VOC)

10. IIASA Spatial distribution of VOC emissions (kt VOC /grid) 19952030(CLE)

11. IIASA Ratio of NO x to VOC emissions in East Asia 19952030(CLE)

12. IIASA Emissions of ammonia in East Asia (Mt NH 3 )

13. IIASA Spatial distribution of NH 3 emissions (kt NH 3 /grid) 19952030

14. IIASA Conclusions Growth of SO 2 and NO x emissions lower than previously estimated, due to –revised economic growth rates, –larger improvements in energy efficiency and –recent emission control legislation. Lifestyle changes and rapid growth of processing industry might lead to significant increase in VOC Present (and possibly future) ammonia emissions dominated by use of urea and ABC fertilizers in China