1. © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved. This PowerPoint presentation may not be duplicated, distributed or excerpted without the University’s advance written consent. Class 2: Environmental Scanning

2.  To understand the concepts of Framing and Scanning;  To understanding of scanning methods used by to spot weak signals of change;  To understand the cognitive pitfalls that hinder interpretation in the scanning process;  To begin scanning. © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

4. Framing  Framing  Identify a Topic or category of importance for the future  Define the interaction of the System in play  Build Consensus on goals and objectives  Contextualize your topic © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved.

5. Scanning  Scanning  Gather signals of change from “ Experts”  Assess the reliability of the signal source  Interpret the meaning of the signal  Synthesize the information from a systems perspective © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

6. FramingScanning Iterative Process © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

7. Environmental Scanning (Radar) Deep Dives (Research) Ongoing, continuous Broad scope Project-specific Focused scope (i.e. crisply framed) © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

8.  WEAK SIGNALS of change  It needs to be relevant  But if it is TOO relevant, it is not a WEAK signal  “Diamonds in the Rough” signals that are repeated across scanned sources 8 © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

9.  Adopt a Systems Perspective  Scan The Environment  Assess the Source  Keep an Open Mind 9 © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

10.  DEGEST  Demography  Economy  Government  Environment  Society  Technology STEEP –Social –Technological –Economic –Environment –Political © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

11. Demographic Societal Governmental Technological Environmental Economic Synergies, Contradictions, Questions © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

12. Companies tend to narrow their field of view… …Interesting change tends to occur at the periphery …Blind spots also occur at the periphery © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

13. To develop good peripheral vision… Explore Unfamiliar and “Uninteresting” areas Seek out “Remarkable People” Know your “Adjacencies” © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

14. https://sites.google.com/a/nd.edu/foresight-in-business-and-society/home © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

15. Websites I recommend: www.trendwatching.com www.springwise.com www.worldchanging.com www.gizmodo.com www.core77.com www.horizonwatching.typepad.com http://www.jwtintelligence.com/ www.pinterest.com www.psfk.com www.mashable.com www.gizmag.com www.popmech.com www.popsci.com © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

16. Break up into groups of 3-4 Scan the Foresight web page for an interesting scanning hit What business sectors will it affect? © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

17. Primary Questions to Consider: 1.How knowledgeable is the source? 2.Is sufficient evidence provided? 3.Does the source have any bias? Methods to Validate your source: 1.Scuttlebutt: listen in on what others are saying about your source (blogs, etc) 2.Laddering – step down one or more rungs into your source’s references © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

18. Purposes Sources ASSERTION OF FACTS IDEAS & INTERPRETATIONS OPINIONS AuthoritativeBESTPossibleMaybe Contended (peer reviewed) Possible, but be careful BESTPossible Contended (not peer reviewed) Possible, but be very careful Possible, but be carefulBEST Popular/FringeNot recommendedPossible, but be very careful BEST © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

19. For your scanning hit… Who is the source? How might you validate? Expertise? Evidence? Bias? © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

20. Keep an Open Mind! © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

21. Seeing What One Has Learned to See How is this relevant to our class? © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

22.  The more expertise one has in a given field, the less likely that person will be to see a solution outside of the framework within which that person was taught to think. © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

23.  “Knowing so much about what you know that you are the last person to see it differently” Edie Weiner, Futurist  “Each of us responds, not to the world, but to our image of the world.” Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View  E.g. Engineers will look for a technical solution within their area of expertise © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

24. Can you spot how they do it? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=voAntzB7EwE The Amazing Changing Color Card Trick http://www.youtube.com/watch?annotation_id=annotation_2623 95&feature=iv&src_vid=voAntzB7EwE&v=v3iPrBrGSJM © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

25.  The more focused we are on a challenge, the more likely we are to overlook obvious information © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

26. Anchoring “It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” Mark Twain Causes us to “Judge Too Soon” Confirmation Bias Availability Bias © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

27. Selective Perception Educated Incapacity Anchoring Confirmation Bias Availability Bias © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

28.  Consider new and contradictory information  Challenge your own beliefs  See the world through “Alien Eyes”  Challenge the assumptions and conclusions  Invert “Figure and Ground”  Defer judgment © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

29. Figure-Ground …Factors that can distort our perspective © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

30.  Scanning improves with a structured approach – Core Competency  Cognitive Biases need to be managed  Always Be Scanning… Sometimes Dive Deep (“Radar”) (“Research”) 30 © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

31.  For Next Class…  Read – State of the Future Exec. Summary  Homework Assignment  Scanning for a trend ▪Graph, Photograph, Paragraph ▪Due _______________ © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

32. Student Name: Section: © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

33.  Bill Marquard “Finding The AND”  7 PM Date TBD  102 DeBartolo As a consultant, Bill Marquard has advised some of the world's most influential and forward-thinking companies. Having also served as a C-level leader, he has walked the executive's path. © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved

34. Posted Electronically  Scan for Evidence of Change  Categorize Your “Scanning Hit”  Assess the Evidence and Source  Discuss Implications for Business  3 Rounds of Entries  New Scanning Hit – Due _____  Respond to a Posted Scanning Hit – Due ____  Another New Scanning Hit – Due _____ © 2013 University of Notre Dame. All rights reserved