1. Math Self Help Tutor: EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY

2. Pennsylvania State Standard: Data Analysis and Probability

3.  Experimental probability: A statement of probability based on the results of a series of trials.  E.G. You roll a six sided die 10 times and recorded that a 3 came up three times; a 1 came up two times; a 5 came up four times; and a 6 came up one time

4.  Experimental Probability: P (event) = number of times event occurs total number of trials

5. EXAMPLE PROBLEM: You have a bag of marbles. The bag contains 4 green marbles, 8 orange marbles, and 5 purple marbles. Pick a marble out of the bag, record the color that you picked, and then replace the marble. Do this 10 times and the find the probability that you pulled out a purple marble. Since you are performing the experiment and recording your answers to find the probability, you are finding experimental probability.

6. TrialGreenOrangePurple 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 TOTAL Exp. Prob You pick out an orang marble the first time. So you put a check or an “x” to show the result. x First, make a chart to record the results for your experiment

7. TrialGreenOrangePurple 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 TOTAL Exp. Prob For trial 2, you pick an orange marble again. Record your answer! x x

8. TrialGreenOrangePurple 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 TOTAL Exp. Prob You pick a purple marble for trial 3. Record your answer! x x x

9. TrialGreenOrangePurple 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 TOTAL Exp. Prob You pick a green marble for trial 4. Record your answer! x x x x

10. TrialGreenOrangePurple 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 TOTAL Exp. Prob You pick a green marble for trial 5. Record your answer! x x x x x

11. TrialGreenOrangePurple 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 TOTAL Exp. Prob You pick a purple marble for trial 6. Record your answer! x x x x x x

12. TrialGreenOrangePurple 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 TOTAL Exp. Prob You pick an orange marble for trial 7. Record your answer! x x x x x x x

13. TrialGreenOrangePurple 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 TOTAL Exp. Prob You pick a purple marble for trial 8. Record your answer! x x x x x x x x

14. TrialGreenOrangePurple 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 TOTAL Exp. Prob You pick an orange marble for trial 9. Record your answer! x x x x x x x x x

15. TrialGreenOrangePurple 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 TOTAL Exp. Prob You pick a green marble for trial 10. Record your answer! x x x x x x x x x x

16. TrialGreenOrangePurple 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 TOTAL Exp. Prob Now find the total for each color by counting the marks in each column. x x x x x x x x x x 343

17. TrialGreenOrangePurple 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 TOTAL Exp. Prob What is the probability that you pulled a purple? x x x x x x x x x x 343 total number of trials # of times event occurred