1. The 14-19 Agenda Geoff Hayward Associate Director of SKOPE Nuffield 14-19 Review

2. Learning pays Old news Old news the more education you have the more you get paidthe more education you have the more you get paid the less likely you are to be unemployed, the healthier you will bethe less likely you are to be unemployed, the healthier you will be you will have better developed social values that underpin active citizenshipyou will have better developed social values that underpin active citizenship It is therefore socially and economically desirable to support continuing participation and qualification post-16 It is therefore socially and economically desirable to support continuing participation and qualification post-16

3. Some caveats Rates of return analyses indicate Rates of return analyses indicate Having a degree really paysHaving a degree really pays Having A levels provides a good rate of returnHaving A levels provides a good rate of return Level 3 Vocational Qualifications provide a reasonable returnLevel 3 Vocational Qualifications provide a reasonable return GCSEs a lower but still significant returnGCSEs a lower but still significant return Level 2 Vocational Qualifications only provide a return for some (men in traditional craft sectors)Level 2 Vocational Qualifications only provide a return for some (men in traditional craft sectors)

4. We do poorly internationally One of the lowest participation rates amongst OECD countries One of the lowest participation rates amongst OECD countries Productivity per worker is higher in OECD countries with more highly skilled work forces Productivity per worker is higher in OECD countries with more highly skilled work forces Our qualification rates are now matching or even surpassing those of Germany and France Our qualification rates are now matching or even surpassing those of Germany and France But we may still have a shortage of vocational skills at Level 3 – technicians and associate professionals But we may still have a shortage of vocational skills at Level 3 – technicians and associate professionals

5. Overall Participation 16-18 Participation increased sharply between 1986 and 1993 and then stabilised Participation increased sharply between 1986 and 1993 and then stabilised By the end of 2003 participation rates were By the end of 2003 participation rates were 87% of 16 year-olds87% of 16 year-olds 80% of 17 year-olds80% of 17 year-olds 60% of 18 year-olds60% of 18 year-olds 75% of 16-18 year-olds75% of 16-18 year-olds Commonest destination for those not staying on is the labour market Commonest destination for those not staying on is the labour market

6. Participation in different routes The vast majority participate via full-time education and training. In 2003 The vast majority participate via full-time education and training. In 2003 72% of 16 year-olds72% of 16 year-olds 60% of 17 year-olds60% of 17 year-olds 37% of 18 year olds37% of 18 year olds The work-based route has declined in popularity since the mid 1980s but the rate of decline is now slowing. In 2003 The work-based route has declined in popularity since the mid 1980s but the rate of decline is now slowing. In 2003 10% of 16 year-olds10% of 16 year-olds 14% of 17 year-olds14% of 17 year-olds 16% of 18 year-olds16% of 18 year-olds

7. Academic v Vocational Routes Participation in both academic and vocational full-time routes has increased Participation in both academic and vocational full-time routes has increased At Level 3 75% of learners are taking GCE A/AS levels the majority in school sixth forms At Level 3 75% of learners are taking GCE A/AS levels the majority in school sixth forms At Level 2 85% are taking vocational courses the majority in FE colleges At Level 2 85% are taking vocational courses the majority in FE colleges The change in participation is driven by increasing GCSE attainment at 16 and an apparent economic rationality, but differs by gender, ethnic group, socio-economic background and geographic region The change in participation is driven by increasing GCSE attainment at 16 and an apparent economic rationality, but differs by gender, ethnic group, socio-economic background and geographic region

8. Challenges Retention and achievement rates in vocational routes are improving but remain below GCE A level Retention and achievement rates in vocational routes are improving but remain below GCE A level The progression rate in vocational routes is low – less than 30% who complete Level 1/2 progress to Level 3. The progression rate in vocational routes is low – less than 30% who complete Level 1/2 progress to Level 3. Early progression into the Labour Market for too many 16 and 17 year olds Early progression into the Labour Market for too many 16 and 17 year olds Drop out into the NEET group – require special measures and a very heterogeneous group. Drop out into the NEET group – require special measures and a very heterogeneous group.

9. Leaving early More likely to do so if you are white, less well qualified (but not unqualified), from poorer backgrounds but 65% live in homes that are owned by parents or carers. More likely to do so if you are white, less well qualified (but not unqualified), from poorer backgrounds but 65% live in homes that are owned by parents or carers. Main destination is a low skill, low wage job – labelled as jobs without training (JWT) Main destination is a low skill, low wage job – labelled as jobs without training (JWT) Males are significantly more likely to be in full-time employment than females Males are significantly more likely to be in full-time employment than females 70% say that their jobs are permanent 70% say that their jobs are permanent A significant proportion (46%) receive on- the-job training; a smaller proportion (about 12%) off-the-job training A significant proportion (46%) receive on- the-job training; a smaller proportion (about 12%) off-the-job training Generally this training does not lead to qualifications Generally this training does not lead to qualifications

10. Type of employment SOC gives the top five jobs as: SOC gives the top five jobs as: Sales AssistantsSales Assistants Clerks, not otherwise specifiedClerks, not otherwise specified Cleaners and domesticsCleaners and domestics Counter hands and catering assistantsCounter hands and catering assistants Waiters and waitressesWaiters and waitresses SIC gives top five areas as SIC gives top five areas as Wholesale, retail, repair of motor vehiclesWholesale, retail, repair of motor vehicles ManufacturingManufacturing Hotels and RestaurantsHotels and Restaurants ConstructionConstruction Real estate, renting and business activitiesReal estate, renting and business activities

11. Work and rewards Median working week is 39 hours Median working week is 39 hours Median wage £100-£125 per week Median wage £100-£125 per week Those in JWT seem to earn significantly more than those on apprenticeship programmes Those in JWT seem to earn significantly more than those on apprenticeship programmes Is this a bad news story? Is this a bad news story? Youth unemployment rate in the UK is at the lower end for the OECD countries Youth unemployment rate in the UK is at the lower end for the OECD countries

12. Encouraging staying on Politically difficult – over 100 pieces of policy in England and Wales in the lat 15 years; participation rate has not increased in the last decade. Politically difficult – over 100 pieces of policy in England and Wales in the lat 15 years; participation rate has not increased in the last decade. Generally reform is focused on changing the qualification system Generally reform is focused on changing the qualification system Real issues are motivational and cognitive – why do some young people not want to try and find it difficult to learn in school? Real issues are motivational and cognitive – why do some young people not want to try and find it difficult to learn in school?

13. 14-19 and the regional skills agenda Some young people don’t see the need to try Some young people don’t see the need to try there is perceived to be an adequate supply of unskilled jobs to meet the imagined future needs of the young people who leave.there is perceived to be an adequate supply of unskilled jobs to meet the imagined future needs of the young people who leave. Cultural and family resources do not promote staying on Cultural and family resources do not promote staying on There is a lack of appropriate progression opportunities There is a lack of appropriate progression opportunities How might the regional agenda focus on meeting the learning needs of these young people? How might the regional agenda focus on meeting the learning needs of these young people?

14. 14-19 and the regional skills agenda In European countries social partners – schools/colleges, employers, trade unions - are more closely engaged with each other at a regional level enabling a closer link between vocational qualifications and labour markets. In part this is underpinned by a more regulated labour market and a shared culture of rights and responsibilities. In European countries social partners – schools/colleges, employers, trade unions - are more closely engaged with each other at a regional level enabling a closer link between vocational qualifications and labour markets. In part this is underpinned by a more regulated labour market and a shared culture of rights and responsibilities. How might this be achieved in a less regulated UK labour market? How might this be achieved in a less regulated UK labour market?