1. Strategy and Nuclear Weapons NationalNational Security GoalsStrategy Global Environment But: technology influences strategy

2. Developments and Debates Early 20 th century: Airpower Mid to late 20 th century: nuclear weapons 21 st century: cyberweapons

3. US Strategy to 1890s Total War: Richmond 1865

4. 1890s: Naval Power Alfred Thayer Mahan (1840-1914)

5. The Rise of Airpower: 20 th century Two Views Airpower is a novelty Airpower is decisive – Giulio Douhet (Italy) – William Mitchell (US)

6. WW II Strategic Bombing Tokyo May 9-19, 1945

7. Dresden (1945)

8. August 6, 1945 Hiroshima

9. Hiroshima Before After

10. August 9, 1945 Nagasaki

11. Nagasaki: Before and After

12. “The Absolute Weapon” Bernard Brodie, The Absolute Weapon, 1946

13. First Nuclear Age, 1945-90s 1.Bipolarity – balance 2.Deterrence – vulnerability 3.Arms Control – Managing rivalry 4.Rationality Second Nuclear Age, 1990s to present 1.Multipolarity – asymmetry 2.Deterrence – missile defense 3.Arms Control – coercion 4.Rationality

14. First Nuclear Age 1945-90s 1.Bipolarity – balance 2.Deterrence – vulnerability 3.Arms Control – Managing rivalry 4.Rationality

15. 1. Bipolarity An Arms Race – Spiral theory US and USSR rough equality Balance of power Triad – ICBMs – SLBMs – Bombers

16. ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missile

17. SLBM – Submarine-launched Ballistic Missile

18. Launch Tube Hatches on USS Alabama

19. Strategic Bombers

20. Two Arms Races by 1960s 1.Offense-offense 2.Offense-defense

21. Early ABM Systems Johnson Administration: “Sentinel”

22. 2. Deterrence Strategies of Deterrence 1.Warfighting – JFK: Flexible Response – Nixon: Limited Nuclear Options: NSDM-242NSDM-242 – Carter: Countervailing Strategy: PD-59PD-59 – Reagan: Prevailing Strategy: NSDD-13NSDD-13

23. MIRVs Multiple Independently Targeted Reentry Vehicles

24. Strategies of Deterrence 2. Assured Destruction Deterrence = Second Strike capability “Balance of Terror” – Albert Wohlstetter, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 37, No. 2 (January 1959): 211-234

25. Soviet First Strike: Successful: USSR “wins” US Second strike US USSR

26. US Second Strike Capability Soviet First Strike US Second strike Scenario: Everyone Dies US USSR

27. US and Soviet Nuclear Arsenals ICBM SLBMBombers launchers/warheads launchers/warheadslaunchers/warheads US Strategic Nuclear Forces 19500000462330 196012 32 15153083 19701054124465615523903339 19801054214451250563763568 19901000244060853122674648 200055020004323456731376 2013450500288115260300

28. US and Soviet Nuclear Arsenals ICBM SLBMBombers launchers/warheads launchers/warheadslaunchers/warheads USSR/Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces 1956000040120 19602230 121354 19701472 317287157568 1980133853629901558157568 19901297685790829001271402 200075635403481576112790 2013326105016062472810

29. Sources: Bulletin of Atomic Scientists Nuclear NotebookNuclear Notebook Natural Resources defense Council Archive of Nuclear DataArchive of Nuclear Data

30. 3. Arms Control Management of the arms race Cut costs Increase predictability Increase transparency “Essential equivalence”

31. Strategic Nuclear Weapons Treaties Cold War Era SALT I – Interim Agreement on Offensive Arms 1972 Interim Agreement on Offensive Arms 1972 – ABM Treaty 1972 ABM Treaty SALT II Agreement 1979

32. Strategic Nuclear Weapons Treaties End of the Cold War Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) I 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) I 1991 START II 1993

33. Strategic Nuclear Weapons Treaties Post-Cold War Era Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT) 2002 Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT) 2002 New START Treaty 2010

34. Critics of Arms Control Soviet ICBM Superiority? “Window of Vulnerability” USlauncherswarheadsSovietlauncherswarheads Titan54 SS-17108432 Minuteman II450 SS-183083,080 Minuteman III5501,650SS-193301,980 Total1,0542,154Total7465,492

35. Solutions to Window of Vulnerability Nixon to Reagan 1. Mobile Missiles – MX Multiple Protective Shelters systemMultiple Protective Shelters

36. Solutions to Window of Vulnerability Reagan to present 2. Missile Defense Reagan’s SDI speech, March 23, 1983SDI

37. 4. Rationality The logic of parity/equality The logic of deterrence The logic of management of the arms race STRATEGIC STABILITY