7. Changing climate: Can plants and animals keep up?

8. As climate changes, organisms may: Go extinct Evolve adaptation to the new environmental conditions Move to environments they are already adapted to

9. As climate changes, organisms may: Go extinct Evolve adaptation to the new environmental conditions Move to environments they are already adapted to

10. How fast must organisms move to keep up with changing climate?

13. Surface Temperature versus Elevation

14. Relatively modest displacements in space = relatively large changes in temperature

15. SR Loarie et al. Nature 462, 1052-1055 (2009) doi:10.1038/nature08649 Changing temperature in California.

16. SR Loarie et al. Nature 462, 1052-1055 (2009) doi:10.1038/nature08649 The velocity of temperature change globally. Different emissions scenarios Different emissions scenarios

17. The velocity of temperature change by biome. Third highest velocity

18. Land-cover change results in formidable barriers to species movement. Thus, keeping pace with climate change is more feasible in protected areas where landscapes may be less fragmented Organ Pipe National Monument

19. Climate residence time (yr) in protected areas. Residence time = Diameter of area/ velocity (km/km yr -1 ) Residence time = Diameter of area/ velocity (km/km yr -1 ) Residence time = Diameter of area/ velocity (km/km yr -1 ) = time for current climate to cross area Residence time = Diameter of area/ velocity (km/km yr -1 ) = time for current climate to cross area Ninth highest residence time

20. Velocities and residence times for climate and not species 29% of the globe with velocities > 1 km/year Trees were thought to have moved about 1 km/year after the last glacial maximum Most plants and animals move much slower than 1 km/year We understand very little…