1. Power Transition Theory
Organski & Kugler, Lemke

2. Introduction End of Cold War
How should the United States attempt to manage world politics (China)?
How will critical alliances (NATO) evolve?
How can regional conflicts be managed?
How will nuclear deterrence affect the stability of deterrence?

3. Components of Power Transition Theory
Structure
Dynamics
Policy

4. The Structure of PT Theory
The international system is hierarchical.
A dominant nation sits at the top.
Challengers: those with 80% or more of the dominant country’s power
There are also regional hierarchies.

5. Measuring power The number of people who can work and fight
Economic productivity
Effectiveness of government in extracting resources
War is most likely when there is parity (equality) between the dominant power and (dissatisfied) challenger.

6. Dissatisfaction The dominant power establishes the status quo (SQ).
Some great powers are satisfied with the SQ, others are dissatisfied.
Dissatisfaction can be based on historical, ideological, religious, territorial, personal, or cultural factors
Dissatisfied states want to change the SQ, or the rules of the game.

7. Alliances
Nations that share common preferences will form stable alliances (NATO).
Alliances between satisfied-dissatisfied states will not last long.

8. Dynamics Countries may experience internal power transitions
Potential paths for economic growth
The most dangerous condition: a rapidly growing nation with larger population surpasses a dominant nation with a smaller population

9. Why Conflict Arises
Power transition theory predicts that war (global or regional) will be most likely when:
There is parity between the dominant power and challenger, and
2) The challenger surpasses the dominant power (overtaking), and
3) The challenger is dissatisfied

10. Empirical Tests of PT Theory
Relative Power Distribution
Major War Preponderance Parity, no Parity &
Transition Transition NO
YES
Source: Organski & Kugler (1980)

11. Empirical Tests of PT Theory
Power Distributions in Local Hierarchies
in South America
War Preponderance Parity, no Parity &
Transition Transition NO
YES
Source: Lemke (1996)

12. Potential Future Transitions
China overtaking the US
India overtaking either China or the US in the last half of the 21st century

13. Policy Prescriptions Expand NATO to include Russia and perhaps China
Change the permanent UN Security Council members
Manage satisfaction through democratization and trade

14. Policy Prescriptions Settle territorial disputes, such as Taiwan
Prevent nuclear proliferation
Manage local crises, but the US should not be a policeman for the world