1. WEATHER SCENARIOS GENERATOR AND SERVER FOR THE AIRSPACE AND TRAFFIC OPERATIONS SIMULATION Presentation to the JPDO NextGen Demonstration Coordination Team Chris Herbster (herbstec@erau.edu) Applied Meteorology / ERAU – Daytona Beach

2. Project Description Create a weather and aviation data archive – coupled with a cataloging and searchable database Develop a way to create convection at a location – Must be physically consistent with surrounding environment. Developed to support research in NextGen applications for simulations at the NASA Langley Research Center Air Traffic Operations Laboratory (ATOL). – Initial focus is on ADSB based cockpit decision making tools for airspace deconfliction in high density conditions. Project is in second and final year (thru August 2010)

3. Weather Database Server provides both archive and searchable interface Data archive consists of ~8 months = 16 TB Modular approach – Separates metadata from actual data files – Allows easy creation of new search parameters

4. Data Archive Gridded Data Sets Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) model data Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) National Convective Weather Diagnostic (NCWD) Current Icing Potential (CIP) Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) National Radar Mosaic (ERAU product) NEXRAD Level-II Data NEXRAD Level-III Products Weather Impacted Traffic Index (WITI) (ERAU product similar to FAA) Text Data All Aviation Weather Center (AWC) text products, such as: – Airman’s Meteorological Information (AIRMET) – Significant Meteorological Information (SIGMET) and convective SIGMET – Area Forecasts (FA) – Winds Aloft – Pilot Reports (PIREP) – Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) Center Weather Advisory (CWA)/Meteorological Impact Statements (MIS) Severe Watches from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC)

6. Metadata Construction Activities Completed – NCWD (National Convective Wx Diag.) – GTG (Graphical Turbulence Guidence) – CIP (Current Icing Potential) To do – Need to write readers for some data – Need to fill in ASDI data (aircraft positions) and construct WITI-like products

7. Database Regions - Method Country broken into small sqaures Each square assigned an id These squares are then mapped with regions – State (TBD) – Country (TBD) – Geographic region (TBD) – ARTCC – Airport

18. User Interface Basic functionality is in place Allows search of – One parameter – One Region – One time

19. User Interface cont. Optimizing queries – Some queries take up to 20 sec Adding in AND / OR / NOT queries Still many warts and intermediate roadblocks to resolve

20. User Interface cont. Allow saving of queries – Back end is in place – Needs user management elements still Correlate users with queries Users with groups

21. User Interface cont. Exporting data – Currently shows time +1 hour – Allow time stepping – Allow changing of time / window Currently allows download of raw data – Add in packaging for running WRF – Other export options? (TBD)

22. User Interface Demo http://wxnasa1.db.erau.edu/DatabaseSearch.html See other presentation for sample images

23. WRF Model Simulations of Convective Weather for the Evaluation and Testing of NextGen Decision Making Tools Putting convective weather in places that nature didn’t.

24. Convective Hotspot Method Initial simulations –> Change Surface Albedo Idea was to have solar heating drive convection Great idea, real world is more complicated! Clouds formed in area of hot spot quenched the solar heating. Initial test region included a lake which stayed hot! Current Approach Create a (very) hot lake! Lake temperatures presented here: 335K (143F), 350K (170F), 365K (197F), 380K (224F)

25. Convective Hotspot Method Current Approach – Create a (very) hot lake! Interesting results for the three “cooler” lake temperatures tested thus far A boiling lake [380K (224F)] didn’t work (yet?) – Still a bit too simple for controlling intensity. – Coming simulations will look at thermodynamic state in a region Perhaps CAPE or Lifted Index as an approximation of forced convection intensity

26. Convective Hotspot Method – HR 0

27. Convective Hotspot Method – HR 1

28. Convective Hotspot Method – HR 2

29. Convective Hotspot Method – HR 3

30. Convective Hotspot Method – HR 4

31. Convective Hotspot Method – HR 5

32. Convective Hotspot Method – HR 6

33. Convective Hotspot Method – Anim

34. Convective Hotspot Method – HR 0

35. Convective Hotspot Method – HR 1

36. Convective Hotspot Method – HR 2

37. Convective Hotspot Method – HR 3

38. Convective Hotspot Method – HR 4

39. Convective Hotspot Method – HR 5

40. Convective Hotspot Method – HR 6

41. Convective Hotspot Method – Anim

42. Convective Hotspot Method – HR 0

43. Convective Hotspot Method – HR 1

44. Convective Hotspot Method – HR 2

45. Convective Hotspot Method – HR 3

46. Convective Hotspot Method – HR 4

47. Convective Hotspot Method – HR 5

48. Convective Hotspot Method – HR 6

49. Convective Hotspot Method – Anim

50. Next Steps Code is written to work on arbitrary size domain as well as arbitrary size and location of hot spot Development of throttling capability is being pondered. – A series (20+ simulations) of lake sizes and temperatures have been run, analysis will continue after final exams(!) Visit us in Atlanta!