1. PewInternet.org Universities in 2020: A technology perspective Virginia Tech Task Force January 28, 2011 Lee Rainie: Director, Pew Internet Project Email: Lrainie@pewinternet.orgLrainie@pewinternet.org

2. Eli Noam 1995 to AAAS Creation of knowledge and evaluation of its validity Preservation of information Transmission of information to others

3. Some big questions for universities What’s the franchise? What’s the commodity? – What “business” are we in? Who are our “competitors”? How should knowledge and teaching be organized? – How do we foster cross-discipline collaboration? What teaching is best done in physical space? What can be done virtually? – What are the correct social / pedagogical norms of those spaces? How should intellectual property be handled when “napsterization” looms over every idea? What new knowledge forms and distribution platforms merit attention and reward?

4. 4 Internet and Broadband Revolution

5. Undergrad - 98% Grad – 99.5% Comm/Coll - 94%

6. 70% 66% Undergrad - 89% Grad – 94% Comm/Coll - 71%

7. Consequences for info ecosystem Volume Velocity Vibrance Valence / Relevance

8. Consequences for info ecosystem Explosion of creators and niches

9. Networked creators among internet users 62% are social networking site users 86% college … 82% grad … 78% of comm/coll ~50% share photos 33% create content tags 32% contribute rankings and ratings 30% share personal creations 26% post comments on sites and blogs 15% have personal website 15% are content remixers 14% are bloggers 12% use Twitter 25% college … 26% grad … 21% comm/coll 4% use location-sharing services

10. 10 Wireless Connectivity Revolution

11. Cell phone owners – 85% adults 96% 90% 85% 58% Undergrad - 96% Grad – 99.2% Comm/Coll - 94%

12. Mobile internet connectors – 57% adults 62% 59% 55% Undergrad - 92% Grad – 88% Comm/Coll - 84%

13. 53% of adults own laptops – (88% coll… 93% grad …70% comm/coll) 45% of adults own MP3 players – up from 11% in 2005 50% of adults own DVRs – up from 3% in 2002 42% of adults own game consoles 6% of adults own e-book readers – Kindle (9% college.. 7% grad.. 4% comm/coll) 5% of adults own tablet computer – iPad (5% for college/grad … 4% comm/coll)

14. Consequences for info ecosystem Anywhere Any device Presence Place Any time Alone together

15. 15 Social Networking Revolution

16. Undergrad - 86% Grad – 82% Comm/Coll - 79%

17. Consequences for info ecosystem Social dashboard Pervasive awareness

18. So what for higher ed? (1) Changed info ecology for networked learners Attention zones Continuous partial attention Deep dives Info-snacking Media zones Social Immersive Streams Creative / participatory Study / work

19. So what for higher ed (2) Social networks play a more important role for info and knowledge acquisition As sentries – word of mouth matters more – Shift in attention awakening As information evaluators – they vouch for/discredit information – Shift in expertise assignment As forums for action – everybody’s a broadcaster/publisher/critic/cheerleader – Shift in influencer arrangement

20. June 25, 201020 So what for higher ed (3) New literacies are required - screen literacy - graphics and symbols - navigation literacy - connections and context literacy - skepticism - value of contemplative time - how to create content/knowledge - personal information literacy - ethical behavior in new world

21. Upheaval 1 -- Gadgets and interfaces

22. Changes underway Voice, smart/semantic web, translation, natural language search, projectors, screens, wearable devices make information …. Pew Internetdanah boyd – pervasive- persistent – portable- replicable – personal- scalable – participatory- searchable COLLAPSED CONTEXTS

23. October 22, 201023 July 9, 201023 Are hot future gadgets evident now? Hot gadgets and apps that will capture the imagination of users in 2020 will often come “out of the blue” and not have been anticipated by many of today’s savviest innovators. 81% experts The hot gadgets and applications that will capture the imagination of users in 2020 are pretty evident today and will not take many of today’s savviest innovators by surprise. 16% experts

24. Upheaval 2 – The metaverse

25. The virtual world merges with real world Metaverse Roadmap: The internet of things enhances the internet of people – Augmented reality – Mirror worlds – Life logging – Virtual worlds

26. Upheaval 3 – The exaflood

27. Age of big data and “the internet of things” – 50 billion connected devices by 2020? Exabyte: 1 billion gigabytes (10 18 ) – 2002: 5 exabytes of info on entire internet – 2010: 21 exabytes pass on internet per month

28. 28 Networked learners of the future More self directed and less dependent on top-down instructions Better arrayed to capture new information inputs More reliant on feedback and response More attuned to group outreach and group knowledge More open to cross discipline insights, creating their own “tagged” taxonomies More oriented towards people being their own individual nodes of production

29. Implications for higher ed Constant connectivity changes social patterns and info flows: real-time info/analytics become powerful Knowledge and tribal niches proliferate even more Credentialing and validation of knowledge is expanded New “market players” enter the space – commercial, open source

30. 30 Thank you! Lee Rainie Director – Pew Internet Project Lrainie@pewinternet.org Twitter - @lrainie 202-419-4500 Lrainie@pewinternet.org