1. LOST IN TRANSITION SUBSTANCE ABUSE AND RISK OF EXCLUSION - FROM YOUTH TO ADULTHOOD IN NORWAY Nordic alchohol and drug researchers’ assembly 2010, Reykjavik Torild Hammer, NOVA Christer Hyggen, Fafo

2. Research question  To what extent does the combination of substance abuse and mental health problems, as well as labour market exclusion of youth explain the increasing rates of disability and inactivity among young Norwegians ?

3. Background  Low levels of unemployment in Norway, but:  80 000 youth outside school & labour market  10 000 on disability benefits  Sharp increase since 1990  Psychiatric disorders: anxiety & depression

4. Number of people receiving disability benefits or rehabilitation money Source: NAV

5. Rate of new cases of disability benefits by diagnosis. Men 25 – 29 years. per 100.000 Mental illness Accidents, poisoning, violence Muscle and skeletal disease All other diagnoses Neural system Source: Brage & Thune 2008

6. Rate of cases of disability benefits by diagnosis. Women25 – 29 years. per 100.000 Mental illness Accidents, poisoning, violence Muscle and skeletal disease All other diagnoses Neural system Source: Brage & Thune 2008

7. Background continued  Increase in alcohol consumption  Increase in drug use

8. Alcohol consumption among (19 to 20 years old). Pure liters alcohol. Source: Sirus

9. A new adulthood  Extended youth  Longer time in education  Postpone marriage and parenthood  Does the new adulthood imply a continuation of lifestyle and patterns of drug and alcohol consumption into adulthood?

10. The survey T5 2003 35 – 39 yr 70 % T5 2003 35 – 39 yr 70 % Sample: N =1997 Stratified by Occupation in 1985: - In education: 0.25 (N=801) - Employed:0.70 (N=800) - Unemployed: 1.0 (N=394) ) Sample: N =1997 Stratified by Occupation in 1985: - In education: 0.25 (N=801) - Employed:0.70 (N=800) - Unemployed: 1.0 (N=394) ) T1 1985 17 – 20 yr 85 % T1 1985 17 – 20 yr 85 % T2 1987 19 – 22 yr 80 % T2 1987 19 – 22 yr 80 % T3 1989 21 – 24 yr 73 % T3 1989 21 – 24 yr 73 % Official records 1985 - 2003: Social Assistance, Social security, Education, Employment, Marriage, Children etc. Official records 1985 - 2003: Social Assistance, Social security, Education, Employment, Marriage, Children etc. T4 1993 25 – 29 yr 73 % T4 1993 25 – 29 yr 73 %

11. The study design 1987 17 – 18 years: leaving school 1993 Young adulthood:Risk of receiving social assistance 2003 Adulthood: Risk of receiving health related social security

12. Main source of income

13. Receiving social assistance in youth Predictors of receiving social assistance Single parent Children Parental divorce Mental health Use of cannabis 1987 Controlled for, not significant Alcohol consumption 1987 School dropout

14. Labour market exclusion, adulthood Predictors of labour market exclusion Social assistance youth Mental health youth Illegal drugs youth Alcohol problems Gender Low parental socioeconomic status Controlled for, not significant School dropout Parental divorce Cannabis use youth Alcohol consumption

15. Conclusions  No direct effects of school dropout and disability in adulthood  No direct effects of the use of cannabis or alcohol consumption  Mental health as strong predictor

16. Analysis Model 1Model 2Model 3Model 4 BSig.Exp(B)B Sig. Exp(B)BSig.Exp(B)BSig.Exp(B) Received social assistance 1987-19930,542*1,7190,599*1,82.3351.398.3001.350 Mental health 19870,053*1,0540,0241,024.641*1.897.595*1.813 Men=1-0,42*0,657-0,636*0,53-.604*.546-.601*.548 SES group 2-0,674*0,51-0,5310,588-.457.633-.454.635 SES group 3-0,3860,68-0,171*0,843-.179.836-.222.801 SES group 4-1,099*0,333-0,7020,496-.791.454-1.057*.348 SES 4* received social assistance1,645*5,1821,292*3,6411.506*4.5071.737*5.681 Cannabis use 19870,0751,078 Alcohol consumption 198701 School drop out 19870,0691,072 Parental divorce0,1991,22 Other illegal drugs = 10,721*2,056.6781.969.6932.000 In work 19850,0711,074 Unemployed 19850,1951,216 Alcohol problems0,181*1,199.0831.086.0451.046 Evaluation of health.540*1.715.552*1.737 Years of education-.043.958 Constant-2,17600,114-1,72200,179-3.323.000.036-3.008.000.049 Cox & Snell R Square0,0530,0540,1