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Why Is – Or Isn’t – Real Estate Rebounding? James Saccacio, CEO RealtyTrac
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A BRIEF INTRODUCTION TO REALTYTRAC 2 ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution James J. Saccacio CEO, RealtyTrac 949-502-8300 Ext. 104 Jsaccacio@RealtyTrac.com Facebook.com/realtytrac Twitter:@jsaccacio Blogs.forbes.com/jimsacaccio
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RealtyTrac publishes the country’s largest database of foreclosure and bank-owned properties –Data from over 2,200 counties, covering over 92% of U.S. housing units #1 online Foreclosure marketplace – over 2 million foreclosure and bank-owned properties nationwide Unmatched property evaluation and transactional tools –HomeScore, Equity & Loan Info, Property Analyzer, Online Offers, Foreclosure-MLS Match, and much more 90 Million Assessor Property Records just added! ABOUT REALTYTRAC 3 ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution
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WHO RELIES ON REALTYTRAC DATA 4 ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution
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WHO RELIES ON REALTYTRAC DATA 5 ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution
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WHO RELIES ON REALTYTRAC DATA ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution 6
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WHAT WE’LL COVER TODAY Why is – or isn’t – real estate rebounding? In-depth look at Shadow Inventory –Nationwide –California 7 ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution
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WHY IS - OR ISN’T - REAL ESTATE REBOUNDING? 8 ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution
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WEAK U.S. DEMAND 9 ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution
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GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION 10 2008-2010: Neighborhood Stabilization Program –$7 billion awarded to states and local governments to purchase and redevelop foreclosures and abandoned homes 2009: Modification Incentives (HAMP): 2009 2010: Short Sale Incentives (HAFA): 2010 2011: Help for unemployed homeowners (EHLP) –Up to $50,000 to help unemployed borrowers pay mortgage –Alabama received $162 million for unemployed borrowers Numerous state laws extending foreclosure process Alabama is one of a few exceptions with no big changes to state foreclosure law HARP II: Refinancing for underwater homeowners who are current on their mortgages, with no cap on LTV ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution
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MEDIAN PRICE VS. MEDIAN INCOME ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution 11
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SLOPPY FORECLOSURE PRACTICES ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution 12 Artificial drop-off in foreclosure activity triggered by robo-signing U.S. Monthly Foreclosure Activity
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LONGER FORECLOSURE TIMELINES ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution 13 California timeline about at national average N.Y. timeline longest in country
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IN-DEPTH LOOK AT SHADOW INVENTORY 14 ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution
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SHADOW INVENTORY OF SUPPLY 15 ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution Built by Skyrocketing Foreclosures & Plummeting Home Prices Up 0.2 percent from July to August 2011
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U.S. SHADOW INVENTORY OF SUPPLY 16 ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution 10 Percent Jump in Default Notices in October SOURCE: RealtyTrac U.S. Foreclosure Market Report
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U.S. SHADOW INVENTORY OF SUPPLY 17 SOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association Q3 2011 National Delinquency Survey ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution
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U.S. SHADOW INVENTORY OF SUPPLY 18 Loans with an LTV of at least 125 percent as of Sept 2011 ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution SOURCE: RealtyTrac U.S. Foreclosure Market Report
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COMING OUT OF A RAIN DELAY ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution 19
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U.S. SHADOW INVENTORY OF SUPPLY 20 ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution
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U.S. SHADOW INVENTORY OF SUPPLY 21 Avg. REO prices 40% lower than avg. prices of non-foreclosures ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution
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U.S. SHADOW INVENTORY OF SUPPLY 22 19 Percent Increase from Q1 to Q2 ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution
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U.S. SHADOW INVENTORY OF SUPPLY 23 Tied record- high for short sale discount in Q2 2011 ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution
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IMPLICATIONS FOR THE HOUSING MARKET 24 ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution
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ESTIMATED ABSORPTION RATES ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution 25 13-month supply of bank-owned REOs 17-month supply of default & auction properties 41-month supply of delinquent properties 30- to 45-month supply of distressed property Based on 265,000 distressed properties sold each quarter SOURCE: RealtyTrac
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CALIFORNIA SHADOW INVENTORY OF SUPPLY 26 ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution
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COMING OUT OF A RAIN DELAY ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution 27
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CALIFORNIA SHADOW INVENTORY OF SUPPLY ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution 28 17 Percent Jump in Default Notices in October 2011 SOURCE: RealtyTrac U.S. Foreclosure Market Report
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CALIFORNIA SHADOW INVENTORY OF SUPPLY ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution 29 SOURCE: Mortgage Bankers Association, Q3 2011 National Delinquency Survey
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SERIOUSLY UNDERWATER CALIFORNIA LOANS: 2 MILLION ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution 30 27 percent of all outstanding California mortgages had an LTV of at least 125 percent as of Sept 2011. SOURCE: RealtyTrac
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THE MOST DEPRESSED HOUSING MARKETS ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution 31 SOURCE: CoreLogic, Zelman & Associates
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CALIFORNIA BANK-OWNED SALES ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution 32
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CALIFORNIA BANK-OWNED SALES ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution 33
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©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution 34 CALIFORNIA PRE-FORECLOSURE SALES
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CALIFORNIA PRE-FORECLOSURE SALES AVG PRICES & DISCOUNTS ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution 35
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CALIFORNIA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution 36 California Unemployment Rate – 11.9% in Sept. 2011 SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
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ESTIMATED CALIFORNIA ABSORPTION RATES ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution 37 9-month supply of bank-owned properties 14-month supply of default & auction properties 19-month supply of delinquent properties 28- to 33-month supply of distressed properties Based on 69,897 distressed sales per quarter SOURCE: RealtyTrac
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2010 MIGRATION PATTERNS ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution 38 SOURCE: United Van Lines, January 2011
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JIM’S CALIFORNIA SCORE CARD National Average Days to Foreclose:336 Days California Average Days to Foreclose:363 Days+ Short Sale Discount:35%+ REO Discount:50%+ Annualized Home Sales:409,000+ Delinquency Trends:Flat- Default Trends:Rising- Delinquency/Default Direction:Rising- Home Price Direction:Down- Unemployment Rate: (Above Natl. Avg.)11.9%- Migration Pattern:neutral GRADE:ABCDF ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution 39
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THANK YOU! 40 ©RealtyTrac Inc. 2011, Not for Distribution James J. Saccacio CEO, RealtyTrac 949-502-8300 Ext. 104 Jsaccacio@RealtyTrac.com Facebook.com/realtytrac Twitter:@jsaccacio Blogs.forbes.com/jimsacaccio
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