1. 11/16/041 Using Smart Growth and Growth Visioning in Developing a Regional Growth Forecast By Seong-Youn Simon Choi, Ph. D. Southern California Association of Governments Presented at the International Solar Cities Congress 2004, Daegu, Korea, November 14-18, 2004.

2. 11/16/042 What is New? Growth Vision Forecast: Trend + Local Input (Local Vision) + “Regional Vision” –Growth visioning: survey and public workshops. –Develop growth vision principles & smart growth strategies A concrete growth forecast

3. 11/16/043 Purpose of Study Reviews macro forces behind the movement of smart growth and growth visioning in urban planning and development. Assesses the role of smart growth and growth visioning in developing a regional forecast. Discusses some of the technical and policy challenges in developing a regional “vision” growth forecast.

4. 11/16/044 Federal Role Two major forces have driven the federal government's role in regional transportation: transportation funding and planning, and air quality protections. Transportation funding and planning is mandated by the ISTEA (now TEA-21) and overseen by U.S. Department of Transportation (US DOT), while air quality efforts are guided by the Clean Air Act and overseen by the Environmental Planning Agency (EPA). The two efforts, once separate, are now coordinated on a variety of levels. With the introduction of the ISTEA in 1991 and the CAAA in 1990, the regional planning process has significantly changed.

5. 11/16/045 Comparison of Planning Aspects between Before and After ISTEA

6. 11/16/046 Regional Initiative & Networking Growth visioning: Portland, Denver, Salt Lake City, and Chicago have used this growth visioning to successfully get in front of growth. Smart Growth Network (1996): the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency joined with several non-profit and government organizations to form the Smart Growth Network (SGN). The Network was formed in response to increasing community concerns about the need for new ways to grow that boost the economy, protect the environment, and enhance community vitality.

7. 11/16/047 Growth Visioning Survey Public Workshops

8. 11/16/048 187 Cities 38,000 square miles 6 Counties 10th largest economy in the world 18 million people Projected to add 5 million more in next 25 years The SCAG Region

9. 11/16/049 Project Vision: To Plan Without Boundaries Portland, Denver, Salt Lake City, and Chicago have used this process to successfully get in front of growth

10. 11/16/0410 Survey Concerns: –Traffic congestion (86%), –Air pollution (84%), –Water/grounded water pollution (83%) Policy options: –Planning for growth (78%), –High density newer neighborhoods with careful design (72%), –Redevelop blighted areas in existing neighborhoods (71%).

11. 11/16/0411 Public Workshops 13 workshops, more than 1000 participants Growth game: Participants build scenarios

12. Public Workshops: Participants build scenarios

13. The Workshop Game Pieces Overview

14. e.g. Pasadena, Santa Monica City Per Chip – 360 Acres 55 Housing Units/Acre 100 Jobs/Acre 3/4mile

15. e.g. Brea, Ventura, Orange, San Juan Capistrano Town Per Chip – 360 Acres 25 Housing Units/Acre 20 Jobs/Acre 3/4mile

16. e.g. South Coast Plaza, Ontario Mills Activity Center Per Chip – 360 Acres 15 Housing Units/Acre 15 Jobs/Acre 3/4mile

17. Employment District Per Chip – 360 Acres 75 Jobs/Acre 3/4mile

18. Residential Subdivision Single Family, 7-10 Units per Acre

19. 11/16/0419 The Workshop Exercise: Starter Chip Sets Four different ways to accommodate projected growth for the region #2 116 Chips #3 127 Chips #4 164 Chips #1 103 Chips

20. 11/16/0420 Public Workshops Presentations of alternative growth scenarios Analysis of scenarios established four overriding growth vision principles and smart growth strategies Positive result: demonstrated the importance of transportation corridors. Challenging issue: balance small area growth allocation with a regional perspective.

21. 11/16/0421 Growth Vision Principles and Strategies MOBILITY Locate new housing near existing jobs and new jobs near existing housing Encourage transit-oriented development Promote a variety of travel choices

22. 11/16/0422 Growth Vision Principles and Strategies LIVABILITY Promote infill development and redevelopment to revitalize existing communities Promote mixed-use development Promote walkable communities

23. 11/16/0423 Growth Vision Principles and Strategies PROSPERITY Provide, in each community, a variety of housing types to meet the needs of all income levels Support growth of industries that offer high-paying jobs and allow upward mobility Ensure environmental justice

24. 11/16/0424 Growth Vision Principles and Strategies SUSTAINABLITY Preserve rural, agricultural and environmentally sensitive areas Focus development in urban centers Develop strategies to accommodate growth that use resources efficiently, eliminate pollution and reduce waste

25. 11/16/0425 Scenario Planning Integrated land use – transportation analysis Two “Bookends” along with several traditional scenarios PILUT 1 – Infill Scenario PILUT 2 – Fifth Ring Scenario Hybrid “Growth Vision” Scenario – Built From: Survey Public Workshops PILUT Scenarios

26. 11/16/0426 PILUT 1 Scenario Incremental Growth

27. 11/16/0427 PILUT 2 Scenario Incremental Growth

28. 11/16/0428 Evaluation of Growth Scenarios Five growth scenarios Two transportation networks: baseline & plan. Use performance results of growth scenarios. mobility, air quality, energy consumption. Preferred growth alternative.

29. 11/16/0429 Benefits of Smart Growth on TAE Measures

30. 11/16/0430 The 2004 SCAG Regional Transportation Plan Household Growth 2010-2030 ( without Growth Vision )

31. 11/16/0431 The 2004 SCAG Regional Transportation Plan Household Growth 2010-2030 ( with Growth Vision )

32. 11/16/0432 Housing Sprawl at the RSA Level

33. 11/16/0433 Employment Sprawl at the RSA Level

34. 11/16/0434 Urban Sprawl at the TAZ Level

35. 11/16/0435 Smart Growth at the TAZ Level

36. 11/16/0436 Findings Federal role (CAAA, ISTEA) and regional initiative (growth visioning) are important. –Local implementation strategies (2% strategies) will play a decisive role. Growth visioning was effective as an educational and learning tool. Beneficial effects of smart growth on TAE measures Small effects of smart growth on the regional spatial structure. Sprawl continues with smart growth.

37. 11/16/0437 Technical and Policy Challenges Growth visioning: how to balance small area growth allocation with a regional perspective Development of a regional growth forecast: not a simple application of technical forecasting method, but a combination of techniques & professional judgments. –Hard to translate vision into numbers due to judgmental elements. –Hard to duplicate the land use modeling process (30m*30m grid cell). –Is forecasting art?

38. 11/16/0438 Technical and Policy Challenges Tremendous spatial changes are not expected with smart growth: –Vision seems an extension (a slight modification) of baseline trends with local visions. –Smart growth is a “small scale”. –Do we need a “regional scale” smart growth?