1. www.gro-wnc.org Scenario Planning Introduction June 11, 2012 Steering Committee Meeting

2. Agenda Welcome and Introductions Key Findings from the Community Meetings Workgroups Presentation of Business as Usual Case Overview & discussion of Scenario Planning Scheduling Upcoming Regular Meetings Other Updates Adjourn

3. Key Findings from Community Meetings

4. Summary of Community Meetings County/JurisdictionMeeting DateMeeting LocationNumber of Attendees MadisonMay 10, 2012Madison High School Media Center 32 HendersonvilleMay 15, 2012Hendersonville Operations Center 38 HaywoodMay 16, 2012Haywood Community College 13 BuncombeMay 17, 2012Dr. Wesley Grant Sr. Southside Center 64 TransylvaniaMay 30, 2012Transylvania Public Library 64

5. Land Use Visual Preference Survey

6. Land Use Themes Preserve farmland, open space, and natural beauty Private properties rights need to be respected and preserved Encourage a mix of uses where appropriate Promote walkable communities Encourage infill and growth where infrastructure exists Streamline approval of appropriate development Encourage development that is sensitive to the natural environment Keep rural, rural and preserve/create small mountain town feel Preserve and market land for industrial development

7. Economic Development BuncombeHaywoodHendersonvilleMadisonTransylvania Education, Clean Tech Manufacturing, Construction, Infrastructure, Health Care & Social Assistance Nursing & Residential Care, Education, Information, Entrepreneurship Education, Health Care & Social Assistance, Professional & Tech Services, Green Manufacturing Health Care, EcoTourism, Cultural, Heritage & Agri- Tourism, Computer Services, Green Manufacturing Education, Nursing & Residential Care, Sporting Goods/Activities, Manufacturing

8. Economic Development Themes Education is critical to region's ability to attract/retain employers Skills matched to employer’s needs Match ED efforts to changing demographics (aging population- health care, including nursing, home care and retirement clients) Tourism (eco, agri and cultural heritage-tourism) Camps are a key component of region’s ED Manufacturing (green, traditional, built on region’s natural resources) Need more non-seasonal employment Agricultural (Alternative crops, distribution networks, marketing local foods, processing facilities) – Locally grown and made products – Internships – Support small farms Provide jobs for young people. Entry level jobs, opportunities to stay after high school Living wages

9. Housing Findings from Community Meeting Findings from Analysis (Census) Buncombe- 2.3 Haywood- 2.28 Henderson- 2.32 Madison- 2.32 Transylvania- 2.22

10. Housing Findings from Community Meetings Findings from Analysis (Census) 68% of the region lives in a single-family detached house 17% of the region lives in a mobile home 12% lives in a multi-family structure (includes duplex, triplex, apartments, condos) 3% lives in a single-family attached house

11. Housing Findings from Community Meetings Findings from Analysis Contracted Rent Under $25010% $250-$50023% $500-$60017% $600-$70017% $700-$80011% $800-$100012% $1000-$15007% $1500-$20002% $2000+2%

12. Housing Themes Preserve & enhance choice Mix incomes (affordable, workforce, market) Specialty housing (senior, young families, special needs) Renovate existing stock (redevelop, preserve affordability) Use innovative building/development practices (green, cohousing, cluster subdivisions) Energy efficiency (solar water heaters, radiant heat) Respect natural environment Respect character of existing housing Home ownership Walkable neighborhoods Accessible to retail, services and jobs Focus development and streamline approval process in urban areas

13. Transportation Findings from Community Meetings

14. Transportation Themes Preserve choice and create options Support alternative modes Park and ride for carpool, bike facilities, high speed internet for telecommuting, transit, greenways, sidewalks Bike facilities, safety and connectivity Preserve commute times Aesthetics of transport, innovative design, change perception of modes, native plants in rights of way

15. Energy Goal 1: Renewable Energy. Goal 2: Energy Efficiency & Conservation. Goal 3: Transportation. Goal 4: Economic Development. Goal 5: Public Education & Outreach.

16. Energy Themes Renewable & alterative energy Energy efficiency (renovation of housing stock, alternative fuels) Market-oriented strategies Promote the local energy sector

17. Natural Resources Goal 1: The region actively supports sustainable farming and forestry practices and invests in the necessary infrastructure to ensure a strong, vital farm community that provides at least 10% of foods locally. Goal 2: The region has significantly decreased the rate in which it is losing high quality farm/forestlands and prime soils. Goal 3: The region invests in eco-tourism as a key economic driver, supporting collaborations, land and water conservation, stewardship, promotion, and educational or support infrastructure. Goal 4: The region’s decision-makers, community leaders, and landowners recognize that sustaining high quality natural habitats enhance and sustain the region’s economy and overall quality of life for its residents, and maintain or improve water resources, air quality, biodiversity and scenic viewsheds. Goal 5: The region recognizes the importance of connectivity between protected lands by managing wildlife and recreation corridors for biodiversity and protecting unfragmented forest blocks. Goal 6: Residents recognize the health and restorative benefits associated with outdoor recreation and regularly take advantage of opportunities throughout the region.

18. Natural Resources

19. Natural Resource Themes Agriculture (Support alternative crops, hops, vineyards, value added agriculture, access to markets) Natural resources are key to quality of life in the mountains Natural resource connection to craft, food, tourism economies Sustaining quality of natural environment Preserve scenic landscapes Enhance water quality Build education & awareness

20. Cultural Resources Goal 1: Measurement Goal 2: Collaboration Goal 3: Advocacy Goal 4: Preservation Goal 5: Engagement & Education

21. Cultural Resources

22. Cultural Resource Map

23. Cultural Resource Themes Connection to economy Awareness of region’s cultural resources Heritage, preservation, craft skills Inclusion of all populations Low-cost access to region’s resources

24. Health & Wellness Themes Access to services Use of natural resources to improve health (local foods, greenways, blueways, trails) Holistic and natural health Awareness of health issues and the associated costs Specialty populations (seniors, disabled)

25. Communications & Outreach Inclusive Transparent Local Choice Private rights

26. Overarching Themes Keep rural, rural Keep natural, natural Grow green (agriculture, alternative energy, natural resource- based) Grow where infrastructure exists Preserve & enhance private choice (housing, transportation) Enable individual and organizational economic growth Be business friendly Connections (access to services, jobs, walkability/bikeability linked lands) Accommodate our special populations Be creative

27. Business-as-Usual Case

28. Business As Usual Where will we be in 2040?

29. Developing the BAU Demographic Forecasts (Control Totals) Existing Land Use Inventory Land Supply (Available Land) Suitability by Land Use Type Future Land Use Allowable Uses and Densities Growth Forecasts

32. Regional Employment Growth Most employment growth will be in service sector, followed by education and health, then trade transportation and utilities

34. Assumptions Office of State Budget and Management Population Projections Extrapolated from 2029 to 2040 Derived Dwelling Units by Applying Persons Per Households Rate from Census (06-10) by County Seasonal Homes Growth In Addition to Resident Units Assumed to Continue Based on 00-10 trend Single Family and Multi-Family Percentages Based on Existing Housing Stock and Recent Trends Employment Projections Based on NC Trends

35. 2010 Dwelling Units 1 Dot = 20 Units

36. 2010-2040 Dwelling Unit Growth 1 Dot = 20 Units

37. Forecasted and Existing Units 1 Dot = 20 Units

38. 2010 Employment 1 Dot = 20 Units

39. 2010-2040 Employment Growth 1 Dot = 20 Units

40. Forecasted and Existing Employment 1 Dot = 20 Units

41. Dwelling Units

42. Employment

43. Evaluation of BAU and Alternative Scenarios GoalIndicatorBAU*Scenario A Preserve Agricultural Land Acres of Farmland Impacted by Forecasted Growth 30% (6k out of 21k acres) ? Preserve and Enhance Water Quality Amount of New Impervious Surface in Watersheds of Interest 370 acres ? *Ag Land Result is based on draft BAU scenario for Henderson County *ISC Coverage estimated based on growth in Clear Creek (Impaired) Watershed NE of Hendersonville

44. Introduction to Scenario Planning

45. Scenario Planning is a method for learning about the future.

46. What is Scenario Planning? Together, We Create Our Future. – It is about choosing a set of options and alternatives. We look at scenarios to make wise decisions in the face of uncertainty. Scenario Planning helps to create the vision to preserve the best set of options – Understand the long term consequences of present choices Scenarios are a communication tool, not a model We start with a base case, then create additional scenarios that maximize different options so that we can understand some of the consequences What is Scenario Planning?

47. GroWNC Timeline 2012

48. Where are we in the Scenario Planning Process? Phase one – Get all the stakeholders involved and scope the work. Phase two – What is currently happening? – Data Collection and public meetings Phase three – Where do we want to go? – Prioritize goals and values feedback from meetings – Gain feedback from main stakeholders Phase four – What could the future look like? – Future base case – business as usual – Alternative scenarios to maximize our goals and values Phase five – What impacts will the scenarios have? Phase six – How will we reach our desired future? Complete Today Summer, 2012

49. Phase 2: Suitability Maps Land “Most Suitable” for a specific purpose Green indicates most suitable, Red indicates least suitable Many parts of our region are suitable for a variety of uses

50. Phase 2: Suitability Maps What is green on some maps is red on others If an area is green on only one map, then that is the best use for that piece of land Areas that are green on both maps are in “competition” with one another. These are the areas that we need to examine in detail for the scenarios. Residential

51. Phase 3: Prioritized Goals and Values From Community Meetings Keep rural, rural Keep natural, natural Grow green (agriculture, alternative energy, natural resource-based) Grow where infrastructure exists Preserve & enhance private choice (housing, transportation) Enable individual and organizational economic growth Be business friendly Connections (access to services, jobs, walkability/bikeability linked lands) Accommodate our special populations Be creative From Prior Work (plans, grant application, etc.) Less dependence on outside resources Enhance and protect natural resources More living wage jobs Mobility choices Less VMT More housing choices More green infrastructure support More resilient to future uncertainty

52. Phase 4(a) – Future Base Case (Business as Usual) 2040 planning horizon Projections and trends based on past patterns and typical growth drivers Comparable to study done by RENCI two years ago, but based on more detailed data

53. Phase 4b: Alternative Scenarios Example from another study Prioritized Goals and Values Range of Scenarios

54. July 10 Working Group Meeting Assist in the development of scenarios Develop the alternatives to be tested by the modeling Provide input on evaluation criteria related to goals and values Working Group Members will first discuss drivers within their sector, then work cross-sector on determining the scenarios they want to test Example from another study GROWTH FOCUS AREASLAND USESUITABILITY

55. All Working Groups Now Linked

56. Phase 5: Impacts of Scenarios Possible indicators to compare scenarios – Acres of rural land – Percentage of people living within walking distance of town center – Percentage of jobs located near affordable housing – Vehicle miles travelled by mode – Acres of land converted from natural to developed – Decreased infrastructure cost How does each scenario perform? Which one maximizes the most indicators? One of main points to cover in the second round of Community Meetings in October.

57. Alternatives to Analyze Using Scenarios 57 NEMAC visualization to support Region A Mountain Landscape Initiative

58. Phase 6: How will we reach our desire future? November Steering Committee meeting topic – Draft Recommendation & Implementation Strategies – Develop an action plan to implement – Craft a comprehensive vision

59. Upcoming Meetings

60. Workgroup Summer Meeting July 10, 2012 Arboretum Meeting Objectives: – Workgroups recognize complimentary and competing goals – Workgroups reconcile differences in priorities through scenario planning – Preferred scenarios provide guide to move region forward

62. THANK YOU!!! Contact us grownc@landofsky.org www.gro-wnc.org