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David Lamb Consultant, Target Analytics
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When a company incorporates, it issues shares, known as “outstanding stock” The value of the company is divided evenly among the shares “Publicly held” stock vs. “closely held” Finding the value of public company stock is easy Finding the value of private company stock is difficult and expensive
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Reasons to value a private company: To measure progress To sell it To raise capital from investors For a management buyout For estate planning For an employee stock ownership plan For taxation The value of a company is influenced by the reason you’re asking the question Change the purpose of the valuation and you change the stock price Only fundraisers ask how it affects a gift
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Fair market value is what a willing buyer will pay a willing seller when neither is under pressure Information typically is not available on private companies To find out what a company is worth, sell it Sometimes D&B provides a net worth figure Read everything you can about your target company – it’s not just numbers
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Value depends on 3 factors How much cash it generates today Expected growth in cash in the foreseeable future The return buyers require for their investment Companies with a negative cash flow can have a high value Companies with a positive cash flow might have a modest value Current interest rates influence value Inverse relationship between interest trend and value trend – similar to bond markets Investors compare return on other investments to return on investment in the private company
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Iconic bookstore with three locations in a major metropolitan area Annual sales are about $20 million per IAC Company Intelligence Incorporated in 1973 Report lists 5 named officers Prospect is the CEO and founder No % of ownership is reported
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Book value Price/earnings ratio (P/E) Discounted cash flow Comparison to similar companies of known value Multiple: Known value/known annual sales Apply the multiple to target company’s sales
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Find a similar public company Downside: a public company is almost always valued higher than an otherwise equivalent private company would be Find a similar private company that sold recently Downside: the only commonly available metric is sales, and value is not always clearly tied to sales or even profit Comparison is only method that is possible if you have no access to the financial statements and appraisals of the assets is comparable companies
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Yahoo Stock Screener (http://screen.yahoo.com/stocks.html)http://screen.yahoo.com/stocks.html Parameters that can be used Industry (SIC or NAICS) Sales Enter relevant info for the target company SEC.gov company search allows SIC search SEC.gov If you don’t know the SIC, check http://www.osha.gov/pls/imis/sicsearch.html http://www.osha.gov/pls/imis/sicsearch.html If your search turns up no companies, try replacing the right-hand numbers with zero’s: 5943 becomes 5940 or 5900 Once you know the company name, look it up on your favorite public company site (e.g. finance.yahoo.com)finance.yahoo.com
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Market Capitalization is one good measure of public company value Enterprise Value, if offered, can be better - incorporates debt and cash into the equation Your target company value is probably considerably less, even if otherwise equivalent Public companies tend to be much larger than their private counterparts Ratio of annual sales to value provides a “multiple” for the relevant industry The more examples the better Read the profile to see if the comparison company is similar in purpose to the target If the public company has flat or negative earnings, it may still have value
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Business Valuation Resources (www.bvmarketdata.com)www.bvmarketdata.com Pratt’s Stats Database of over 9,500 private company sales from 1990 to present Deal price ranges from $1 million to $14.4 billion Updated monthly with about 100 transactions added / month $625 Bizcomps Database of over 9,500 private company sales from 1993 to present 61% of the companies have gross revenues less than $500K 18% of the companies have gross revenues over $1 million $425 INC. Magazine’s Ultimate Valuation GuideUltimate Valuation Guide
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Premium Zone Discount Zone Median Sale Price Median Annual Sales
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Median Sale Price Median Annual Sales
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http://www.bizstats.com/reports/valuation-rule-thumb.asp
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Bizbuysell.com Bizbuysell.com GlobalBX.com
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Company sales are reported to be $20 million The one classified found for a bookstore supports a high ratio of value to sales Public companies in the same industry have a sales to value ratio ranging from.14 -.40 Inventory is unknown, but classified add suggests a possible inventory to sales ratio of 37.5% Best guess of inventory: 37.5% x $20 MM = $7.5 MM Company sales are reported to be $20 million The one classified found for a bookstore supports a high ratio of value to sales Public companies in the same industry have a sales to value ratio ranging from.14 -.40 Inventory is unknown, but classified add suggests a possible inventory to sales ratio of 37.5% Best guess of inventory: 37.5% x $20 MM = $7.5 MM
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Using similar public company comparison (middle valuation is 22% of sales) $4.4 MM Using Inc. Valuation Guide for retail trade (43% of sales) $8.6 MM Using BizStats (15% of sales + inventory) $7.5 MM Inventory $3.0 MM 15% of sales $10.5 MM Total
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Households with a net worth of $1.5M-$10M, 2004 IRS data, published in 2008 [2] Includes cash and cash management accounts. [3] Includes all government bonds, bonds issued by corporations and foreign governments, mortgages and notes, cash value life insurance, and diversified mutual funds. [4] Includes Individual Retirement Accounts, annuities, and self-employed or Keogh plans. [5] Includes non-corporate businesses, farms, and limited partnerships.
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Assume 50% ownership for the prospect who founded the company more than 30 years ago Alternative valuations: Ownership stake would be between $5.25 MM (BizStats) $4.3 MM (Inc. Guide) $2.2 MM (Comparable public companies) Comparable company for sale supports high ratio Reasonably conservative guess could be $2MM Per IRS, closely held stock is 9% of net worth – make it 1/10 for easy calculation 10 x $2 MM = $20 MM estimated net worth Prospect’s philanthropic capacity could be 2-5% of estimated net worth 2% x $40 MM = $400,000 5% x $40 MM = $1 MM
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Yahoo! Stock Screener: screen.yahoo.com/stocks.htmlscreen.yahoo.com/stocks.html BV Resources: www.bvmarketdata.comwww.bvmarketdata.com Inc. Valuation Guide: www.inc.com/valuation/index.htmlwww.inc.com/valuation/index.html BizStats: www.bizstats.comwww.bizstats.com BizBuySell: bizbuysell.combizbuysell.com GlobalBX: www.globalbx.comwww.globalbx.com www.lambresearch.com www.lambresearch.com White Paper www.blackbaud.com/resources/white- papers.aspxwww.blackbaud.com/resources/white- papers.aspx Yahoo! Stock Screener: screen.yahoo.com/stocks.htmlscreen.yahoo.com/stocks.html BV Resources: www.bvmarketdata.comwww.bvmarketdata.com Inc. Valuation Guide: www.inc.com/valuation/index.htmlwww.inc.com/valuation/index.html BizStats: www.bizstats.comwww.bizstats.com BizBuySell: bizbuysell.combizbuysell.com GlobalBX: www.globalbx.comwww.globalbx.com www.lambresearch.com www.lambresearch.com White Paper www.blackbaud.com/resources/white- papers.aspxwww.blackbaud.com/resources/white- papers.aspx
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